Is it too early to talk winter weather?

[slowrider]

West coast forecast outlook mediocre at best. Thanks for that detail analysis.

 

[clong83]

I'm trying to make my plans now for the upcoming season. For the past 2 seasons I've gone to Whitefish Mt. and absolutely hit the jackpot with snow. This past season we had 4' over the 2 weeks I was there, and I've never been so tired in my life ... but it was the best snow I've ever seen there!

I also went to Wolfcreek, Co. in December, 2017. In the 20 or so years I've been going there - the worst conditions I've seen. It was not cold and there was no snow, which is extremely unusual for Wolf! I actually packed up, middle the first week and went home.

So for the upcoming season, I'll plan for 3 weeks back to Whitefish Mtn - mid Jan thru early Feb. Annnd if there's the typical snow at the "Wolf" - I may head there in December for a couple of weeks.

Ciao ... Dorm

Wolf was pretty bare through at least mid-December last year... But oddly, it was also better than most other Colorado resorts in early December. The frontside was atrocious, but if you were brave and ventured into the Alberta area, there were actually some pockets of decent stuff. It was untouched, I think mostly because the reigning mentality was "You'd have to be insane to go back there right now". There were some obstacles for sure, but powder could be found and fun could be had. Probably wouldn't want to spend a week there on vacation though...

 

[cantunamunch]

Well, the september outlook is out.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2

 

[Dorm]

I was just hoping there was enough correlation weatherwise to anticipate the upcoming season ... but I really should know better.

Clong ... I'd not want to repeat my 2017 Wolf trip again this year, so for that reason I'm holding off reserving flights or condos until there's snow. It was so sparse mid-December last year, I wouldn't use my skis - and the only skis I could rent were rock skis .

If snow is good, and I've been to Wolf mid-Nov when it was really good, then I'll shoot for Dec. I'll likely plan for Whitefish and good snow at Wolf would be a bonus.

 

[cantunamunch]

Compare the September graph to the August one - I'm going to guess they got the moisture right (Yay Taos!) and that the high temp swings in the NW will be altitude mediated.

 

[jack97]

Interesting patterns setting up, the high pressure up at Alaska will cause blocking into the Northwest. A hint of the El Nino, maybe a Modoki.

 

[LiquidFeet]

.... A hint of the El Nino, maybe a Modoki....

Just looked up Modoki El Nino. It's explained here: http://firsthandweather.com/3796/winter-2018-2019-discussion-modoki-el-nino/

 

[neonorchid]

 

[Jellybeans1000]

Interesting patterns setting up, the high pressure up at Alaska will cause blocking into the Northwest. A hint of the El Nino, maybe a Modoki.

I'm feeling more like a basin-wide event. Which combined with the aforementioned -EPO (Alaskan and West Canadian Ridging), would create a strong jetstream, meaning a big season for Tahoe and Mammoth, and potentially Utah and Colorado.

 

[jack97]

I'm feeling more like a basin-wide event. Which combined with the aforementioned -EPO (Alaskan and West Canadian Ridging), would create a strong jetstream, meaning a big season for Tahoe and Mammoth, and potentially Utah and Colorado.

Its already warm (anomaly) at Siberia Alaska strait. If the SST anomaly gets warmer at the gulf of Alaska, the 'Blob' might come back by winter. A month ago, the gulf was neutral.

 

[Jellybeans1000]

My preliminary winter outlook for Winter 2018-19 is now out.

https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/10/october-preliminary-northern-hemisphere.html

An abstract of my outlook. Full details in link above.

"So in summary, my forecast is for a rapidly descending to positive QBO, weak-moderate basin-wide El Niño with perhaps some weird atmospheric feedback, neutral/slightly +PDO, strong -EPO, a -AO and -NAO and a much further south than usual Aleutian Low. Also some potential Scandi blocking, and blocking over the Barents-Kara Sea."

 

[Mendieta]

https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/10/october-preliminary-northern-hemisphere.html

Crossing finges on this one:

2. A more snowier (with slightly above average temps) California and SW.

 

[LiquidFeet]

Quote from that forecast just linked (https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/10/october-preliminary-northern-hemisphere.html):

"This gives us:
1. A warmer and less snowier PNW.
2. A more snowier (with slightly above average temps) California and SW.
3. An average Colorado and Utah.
4. A much snowier Eastern US.
5. A colder Europe, but with average snowfall.
6. A slightly above average snowfall season for Japan."

 

[Blue Streak]

Quote from that forecast just linked (https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/10/october-preliminary-northern-hemisphere.html):

"This gives us:
1. A warmer and less snowier PNW.
2. A more snowier (with slightly above average temps) California and SW.
3. An average Colorado and Utah.
4. A much snowier Eastern US.
5. A colder Europe, but with average snowfall.
6. A slightly above average snowfall season for Japan."

An average Colorado winter is just fine with me.

 

[Kneale Brownson]

If it keeps snowing like it is right now, I'll have to shovel the garage apron for the first time this winter

 

[Blue Streak]

Flannel sheets are going on tonight!

 

[LKLA]

 

[Jim McDonald]

"...slightly above average snowfall season for Japan"

That'll work!

 

[Gatopescado]

Supposed to be a "hard freeze" last night. NOT! I harvested 32 pounds of green tomatoes because I thought they would get wasted.

Now, this morning the weather-bastard is saying it'll be in the high 70's for the rest of the week.

Sometimes you just can't win.

 

[luliski]

Supposed to be a "hard freeze" last night. NOT! I harvested 32 pounds of green tomatoes because I thought they would get wasted.

Now, this morning the weather-bastard is saying it'll be in the high 70's for the rest of the week.

Sometimes you just can't win.

You have green tomatoes in October??