Is it too early to talk winter weather?

[neonorchid]

 

[TexasStout]

https://www.onthesnow.com/news/a/632564/winter-18-19-long-range-weather-forecast

Looks like it may be the year for a return trip to Taos! Wasn't in my original plans, but gotta be flexible.

 

[dbostedo]

Looks like it may be the year for a return trip to Taos! Wasn't in my original plans, but gotta be flexible.

You might be interested in this thread : https://www.pugski.com/threads/taos-mini-gathering-2019-planning.11408/

 

[Tricia]

When I left the bike shop today at 6 PM, it was 57º F.
I'm rethinking what I wear tomorrow.

 

[firebanex]

It's been frosting pretty well every morning this week and the leaves are mostly changed now.. Winter is coming in Alaska.

 

[neonorchid]

Released on the 2nd September 2018 this is the first Winter 2018/19 Update.


The first Winter 2018/19 update begins looking at the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean sea-surface-temperature (SST) anomalies.

In the Equatorial Pacific Ocean we're currently at ENSO neutral condition across all regions, The SOI (southern Oscillation Index) is weakly negative telling us the atmosphere in the southern Ocean is weakly reflective of El Nino but this late in the season this may not be enough to take us to an El Nino event through the Autumn. CFS V2 is still forecasting moderate El Nino conditions to be in place by November but looks unlikely based on the current SST's.


https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2018-19-weather-forecast.php

 

[Sibhusky]

It's fall colors here. But I think there was only one or two nights this summer that temps stayed up in the low 70's, it has been down in the 50's and 40's at night 95% of the summer. This week day time highs are in the low 60's with one day forecast to only hit 49.

 

[Jim McDonald]

Sounds like paradise!

 

[graham418]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/banff-jasper-national-parks-icefields-parkway-1.4821808


They're getting a little dusting in Banff

 

[dbostedo]

^^^^
Based on pics like that, can we get the title of this thread changed to "It's not too early to talk winter weather!"

 

[slowrider]

https://snowbrains.com/noaa-65-70-chance-of-el-nino-this-winter/

 

[cantunamunch]

Tremblant and Taos, with some Blue and Sunday River in the mix.

 

[Talisman]

Big Sky earlier today that I also posted in another thread, can't have our Canadian cousins show all the snow.

 

[Jilly]

Just got off messenger with a friend that lives in Banff. Snow on the ground. And the cat was cuddling up to the fireplace!!

 

[Guy in Shorts]

It's fall colors here. But I think there was only one or two nights this summer that temps stayed up in the low 70's, it has been down in the 50's and 40's at night 95% of the summer. This week day time highs are in the low 60's with one day forecast to only hit 49.

Was the air cleaner this Summer or was smoke prevalent again?

 

[Sibhusky]

We didn't get into purple this year, only red. Missoula last year was really bad, far worse than we were. This year we were worse than them. But it was bad enough to make my eyes sting outside, aside from the healthiness of breathing.

 

[geepers]

I guess if I was so inclined I'd run a comparison between each of your early season predictions and the actual to see who has the better crystal ball. For what it's worth I see your May 6th prediction was for a peak of 182cm at Spencer Creek "slightly above average snow season" and Grasshopper's April 9th was for a peak in the range 180-220cm "fairly good start to the season, then a slowish late winter".

As at Aug 16th actual Spencer Creek was 203.9cm. So it's not another 1964 nor another 2006.

Although my general rule is to go skiing regardless of forecast (this avoids those "awesome day, should have been on the hill" conversations) it would be good if you could add some how the season will progress commentary if that's possible.

P.S. Appreciate you putting in the effort to make the forecast and make it publicly available.

@Jellybeans1000,
Perhaps it's a little early with 2 weeks of the down under season left to run but let's do a quick review of the respective forecasts....

Peak snow depth at Spencer Creek for 2018 is now unlikely to surpass 225cm on Aug 22nd.

So I rate both of you pretty good on that front. Not far off for your (brave) single figure and just above the top of the Grasshopper's band. Given the variety of marginal factors that affect Australian snow depth that's got to be a difficult forecast.

There wasn't much snowfall after after the peak - at least where I ski (NSW). So Grasshopper's "fairly good start to the season, then a slowish late winter" seems to be reasonably on the money as well.

Looking forward to the pre-season forecasts for Oz 2019. And we'll run a similar comparison. And I know it is a bit cheeky of me to ask a volunteer... could you possibly add a "this is how the season will go" comment. Be good to get an agreement (or counterpoint) to other forecasters. Although we've already purchased Thredbo passes for 2019....

Are you forecasting Northern Hemi?

 

[Jellybeans1000]

@Jellybeans1000,
Perhaps it's a little early with 2 weeks of the down under season left to run but let's do a quick review of the respective forecasts....

Peak snow depth at Spencer Creek for 2018 is now unlikely to surpass 225cm on Aug 22nd.

So I rate both of you pretty good on that front. Not far off for your (brave) single figure and just above the top of the Grasshopper's band. Given the variety of marginal factors that affect Australian snow depth that's got to be a difficult forecast.

There wasn't much snowfall after after the peak - at least where I ski (NSW). So Grasshopper's "fairly good start to the season, then a slowish late winter" seems to be reasonably on the money as well.

Looking forward to the pre-season forecasts for Oz 2019. And we'll run a similar comparison. And I know it is a bit cheeky of me to ask a volunteer... could you possibly add a "this is how the season will go" comment. Be good to get an agreement (or counterpoint) to other forecasters. Although we've already purchased Thredbo passes for 2019....

Are you forecasting Northern Hemi?

Of course. Thank you.

You mean a comment, about the early season into the later season, like the Grasshopper did? I'll see how I go.

And to the latter point, I sure am. First forecast out now.

 

[Jellybeans1000]

https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/09/another-september-winter-2018-19.html

Here is my latest take towards ENSO in a more technical fashion in my latest seasonal forecast update.

 

[Dorm]

I'm trying to make my plans now for the upcoming season. Current info I've read shows 70% probability for El Nino with the upcoming season. I'm really curious as to how the data for current forecasts compare to the 2017-2018 season. More specifically, were conditions last year comparable to our present conditions, and does this eventually work out to similar regional conditions for 2018-2019 season?

For the past 2 seasons I've gone to Whitefish Mt. and absolutely hit the jackpot with snow. This past season we had 4' over the 2 weeks I was there, and I've never been so tired in my life ... but it was the best snow I've ever seen there!

I also went to Wolfcreek, Co. in December, 2017. In the 20 or so years I've been going there - the worst conditions I've seen. It was not cold and there was no snow, which is extremely unusual for Wolf! I actually packed up, middle the first week and went home.

I'd surely be interested to know how 2017-2018 conditions compare to present. Thanks ...

Ciao ... Dorm