The Blob: will it affect winter?

[Josh Matta]

Stowe got 375inchs last time this happened and it wasnt cold...

 

[Average Joe]

Depends on the lake effect !

 

[scott43]

Stowe got 375inchs last time this happened and it wasnt cold...

There's a good chance we'll be at Stowe this winter...

 

[Wendy]

Accuweather also had an article about the blob a week or so ago. Its position isn’t exactly the same as 2014-15, but I could see why it would create a blocking pattern. But isn’t this winter also an El Niño? That could make things less cut and dry, pun intended.

The blob did create an unprecedented cold and snowy weather pattern here in the Mid Atlantic.

As far as Joe Bastardi’s map, I remember him getting winter weather predictions WAY wrong back when he worked for Accuweather. I was teaching a meteorology class back then and his insistence on his forecasts got annoying as hell.

And, then, there’s this:

“Despite a warmer-than-average finish to the month being forecast for Alaska by the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, the dome of high pressure fueling the blob is expected to shift and begin to deteriorate. This could allow in a stormier pattern, which may enable waters to blend where the blob sits, possibly weakening or destroying it.

The last time the blob appeared was in 2016, when multiple cold outbreaks were expected in its wake, but the blob was washed away.“

So, it’s too early for Westerners to worry and Easterners to rejoice.

 

[scott43]

As far as Joe Bastardi’s map, I remember him getting winter weather predictions WAY wrong back when he worked for Accuweather.

I mean, it IS the weather after all!!

 

[Tricia]

Epic vs IKONic - We're going to get a lot of skiing in.

No, not everywhere.
It will only be Epic at VA resorts.

Hey, I use a little "e" intentionally! And VA resorts are always epic, as long as there's snow, and I'm there!

 

[KingGrump]

Epic vs IKONic - We're going to get a lot of skiing in.

I know I'll have an Ikonic experiences this coming season.
Definitely can see some Epic seasons down the road. It's all good skiing.

 

[jack97]

Accuweather also had an article about the blob a week or so ago. Its position isn’t exactly the same as 2014-15, but I could see why it would create a blocking pattern. But isn’t this winter also an El Niño? That could make things less cut and dry, pun intended.

The blob did create an unprecedented cold and snowy weather pattern here in the Mid Atlantic.

As far as Joe Bastardi’s map, I remember him getting winter weather predictions WAY wrong back when he worked for Accuweather. I was teaching a meteorology class back then and his insistence on his forecasts got annoying as hell.

And, then, there’s this:

“Despite a warmer-than-average finish to the month being forecast for Alaska by the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, the dome of high pressure fueling the blob is expected to shift and begin to deteriorate. This could allow in a stormier pattern, which may enable waters to blend where the blob sits, possibly weakening or destroying it.

The last time the blob appeared was in 2016, when multiple cold outbreaks were expected in its wake, but the blob was washed away.“

So, it’s too early for Westerners to worry and Easterners to rejoice.

Latest sea surface anomaly, the Blob is still present, tho not as strong as past seasons. As for the east coast getting the goods, Greenland has accumulated more snow in the past year so the albedo effect and the Arctic warming will cause a weaken polar jet stream. Bastardi is hedging that the Modoki El Nino and the cold waters off the Philippines will cause some nice storms to travel across the country.

 

[Wendy]

Latest sea surface anomaly, the Blob is still present, tho not as strong as past seasons. As for the east coast getting the goods, Greenland has accumulated more snow in the past year so the albedo effect and the Arctic warming will cause a weaken polar jet stream.

[/QUOTE]

Pardon if I am being dumb, but aren’t the albedo effect and Arctic warming opposing forces? And wow...look at the SST anomaly in the Bering Strait....

 

[Jim Kenney]

Yesterday I saw one of the better tv weathermen in the Wash DC area (Topper Shutt) give his winter prediction for our area. He said a weak El Nino is expected and the mid-Atlantic should get more snow than normal. I think this means the southern Rockies (e.g. Taos) should also have a good year. We shall see??
Details here: https://www.wusa9.com/article/weath...ch-snow-you-can-expect-this-year/65-607294606

 

[noncrazycanuck]

weather changes, and there are lots of good areas with many different micro climates in this area to choose from.
I am more concerned about my stomach blob after 3 weeks of Belgium beer.

 

[jack97]

Pardon if I am being dumb, but aren’t the albedo effect and Arctic warming opposing forces? And wow...look at the SST anomaly in the Bering Strait....

Depends on where the albedo effect occurs, at the clouds or over a land mass. This year with the snow mass on Greenland along with the sun radiation will cause the hot air over this land mass. Same results but different mechanism occurs with the Bering Strait, the SST will cause the hot air mass in this region. These combined will most likely cause a blocking pattern resulting in a weakened polar jet stream.

 

[Eleeski]

The year of the disaster winter, the water off San Diego was incredibly warm. Last year (which started badly and was a bad for Socal) had the water cool off late. This year, the water is chilly. No blob here. Good winter?!!!

Eric

 

[Wendy]

The year of the disaster winter, the water off San Diego was incredibly warm. Last year (which started badly and was a bad for Socal) had the water cool off late. This year, the water is chilly. No blob here. Good winter?!!!

Eric

There’s so many different variables, forecasters can only look at analogous situations from years past along with current data and models.

 

[Ken_R]

The only blob I wanna see in the west is a blob of snow. Cmon, we have been more than patient. Last one was in 2010-2011 season. Bout time.

 

[Lorenzzo]

Well...as you can see, nothing’s happening in WY. Damn blob.

 

[Talisman]

2015 - 2016 wasn't a bad year for the Northern Rocy Mtns with Whitefish at 98% and Big Sky at 97% of average, summary from Tony Crocker's site:

U.S. Northern Rockies:
November snow was below average but Targhee as usual had some of the most terrain open in North America in early season. The first half of December Northwest storms dumped 4+ feet in Idaho but lesser amounts in Montana and Wyoming. The week before Christmas dumped 3-4 feet upon the entire region, bringing base depths up to 4-6 feet. Big Sky was 3/4 open at Christmas and 90+% open since mid-January. Christmas Week brought 1-2 feet of snow to the Tetons and near the Canadian border, with less than a foot at areas in between. First half of January snowfall ranged from 1-3+ feet. Second half of January snowfall was 5+ feet in the Tetons and 3-4 feet elsewhere. February snowfall was 2-3 feet scattered through the month. First half of March snowfall was in the 2 foot range except for Sun Valley, which got nearly 4 feet from the California storms. Second half of March snowfall was 3+ feet in the Tetons and averaged 2 feet in Idaho and Montana. April was warm and mostly dry like the other northern regions and all areas closed in April due to remote location.

 

[Jellybeans1000]

Always late to a party.....

Yesterday I saw one of the better tv weathermen in the Wash DC area (Topper Shutt) give his winter prediction for our area. He said a weak El Nino is expected and the mid-Atlantic should get more snow than normal. I think this means the southern Rockies (e.g. Taos) should also have a good year. We shall see??
Details here: https://www.wusa9.com/article/weath...ch-snow-you-can-expect-this-year/65-607294606

I agree with that analysis. A reminder to all that we are looking at a centrally based El Niño, not a Modoki. There is unlikely to be cool anomalies during winter in Niño 1 + 2 (just off the South American Coast). This means a stronger subtropical jetstream, which means a good year for California in general in my opinion. Not so good for the PNW and BC, because of the "blob", which encourages strong highs in the Alaskan Gulf. We are also likely to see a strong Aleutian Low (because of Niño), which further amplifies the subtropical jet, and also causes stratospheric weakness, which helps out the Eastern US, down the track.

Greenland has accumulated more snow in the past year

However ice in the Greenland sea to the east is lower than normal, so not sure whether relying on the low melting season in Greenland is going to help the intended effect. And the surrounding cold anomalies are going to hamper any major development of a -NAO. I'd far prefer a Barents-Kara ridge and -EPO mix, than a -NAO and -EPO separated form in terms of creating snowfall in the Eastern US.

I'd say lower than normal snowfall for PNW, average for Colorado and Utah, and above average for California. But that's just one take of course, and I will be far more comprehensive with my formal outlook.

 

[DoryBreaux]

I'm thinking of getting this on a shirt. Or maybe just stickers...

 

[jack97]

latest.... the blob is present but still not as strong in past seasons.

At the arctic, the ice volume is on its increase. Siberia side is growing, the Canada and Greenland side has had ice since last spring. This is very favorable toward the weakening polar jet stream.