The Blob: will it affect winter?

[river-z]

There was an article today in the LA Times about the blob.
https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2019-09-05/second-blob-may-be-coming

This detail caught my attention:
"Researchers said the 2019 marine heat wave could be even bigger than the blob, but it could also break apart.
“With the blob, the water was very warm down to 200 meters and even down below 500 meters,” said Toby Garfield, director of the environmental research division at NOAA’s Southwest Fisheries Science Center in La Jolla. “With this event right now, the heat is only in the top 50 meters, maximum.”
If the low-pressure system moves and the winds increase, the heat wave might simply break apart. However, if the winds stay low and the mass of warm water reaches the coastline, it could have the same impact as the blob, scientists said.

 

[John O]

I really really really really really hope the blob isn't actually back, and/or dissipates quickly. It was absolutely brutal for the PNW snowfall and snowpack in 14/15. I do not want that kind of winter again so soon.

 

[Eleeski]

Weather is extremely complex and chaotic. Popularizing one small factor like the Blob is misguided. (See the first pages of this thread - predictions of doom in a year where we skied on the Fourth) I hope nobody cancels a planned trip this winter based on having warm swimming water in San Diego right now.

The established common knowledge is not perfect. La Ninas aren't always dry. El Ninos aren't always wet. Global warming will not end skiing. Sacrificing Mayan children will not end droughts.

Eric

 

[Ken_R]

 

[robertc3]

It is worrisome the blob has formed, but it could dissipate with just a couple of good storms to churn up the water in the eastern pacific. September is too early to start worrying about something that can so easily change in one month. If the blob is still around on 12/1 then it will be time to start booking airline tickets for us northwesterners.

 

[martyg]

The last time that The Blob formed it totally screwed the PNW. If I remember correctly, CO got hammered.

This is a pic of Mt Baker Ski Area that winter. At the time that I took and posted, many thought it was the parking lot. It is an open ski run - and one of the runs that actually had coverage. This shot was taken mid-Feb. For perspective, I believe that Mt. Baker's running average on snowfall was 735", prior to this winter. That winter screwed the pooch on yearly averages.

 

[Jerez]

The Farmer's Almanac was one of the few that got it sorta right last year and I like that map, so I'm sticking with that.
'Cause, you know, screw science and go with what you want to believe.

 

[James]

'Cause, you know, screw science and go with what you want to believe

Be careful, that currently may be a US Govt trademark.

 

[slowrider]

The last time that The Blob formed it totally screwed the PNW. If I remember correctly, CO got hammered.

This is a pic of Mt Baker Ski Area that winter. At the time that I took and posted, many thought it was the parking lot. It is an open ski run - and one of the runs that actually had coverage. This shot was taken mid-Feb. For perspective, I believe that Mt. Baker's running average on snowfall was 735", prior to this winter. That winter screwed the pooch on yearly averages.

Bachelor free base grind.

 

[jack97]

This is close to porn.... well maybe foreplay.

 

[graham418]

https://www.npr.org/2019/09/06/7580...ne-heat-wave-could-pose-new-risks-to-sea-life

I saw this map today of the 'blob' I have no idea what this means regarding snow.

 

[sbooker]

This is close to porn.... well maybe foreplay.

What would that chart show historically? Are you saying there is more ice than normal? Or less?

 

[jack97]

What would that chart show historically? Are you saying there is more ice than normal? Or less?

The map shows the daily snow cover over the northern hemisphere. With an early snow pack starting in the fall season, this sets up a high air pressure region for the coming winter season. Stated another way, a large area snow pack forces hot air to reflect back up the atmosphere due to the snow's albedo effect. This results in a high air pressure region over the Arctic, thus a weaken polar vortex, so cold winds and temperature will dip more southerly to the contiguous US.

The above couple with the Blob sets up "ridges" where the cold fronts and storms will travel across the US. The fall snow pack effect has been discovered and still analyzed for about the last ten years or so. The Blob which sets up a blocking pattern to the NW region is a more recent phenomenon.

Latest map, snow cover is happening......

 

[LiquidFeet]

@jack97, what's the difference between yellow and white in that map?

 

[dbostedo]

@jack97, what's the difference between yellow and white in that map?

Per the key on the lower left of the map, yellow is ice and white is snow.

 

[LiquidFeet]

 

[jack97]

Bastardi et al thinks the Blob will go away or not effect the NW. A warm start to the winter for the East (so we are going hear the end of the world from the alarmist) then it gets cold. NW 100% snow, NE 125% snow

https://www.weatherbell.com/preliminary-2019-2020-winter-forecast


BTW, with the fall solstice a week away, up at the Arctic...

 

[dbostedo]

BTW, with the fall solstice a week away, up at the Arctic...

Can you expand on that? What's the significance? I think it's been a pretty low year for sea ice to this point, right? How does that affect things?

 

[jack97]

^^^

The significance of the fall solstice is its the start of fall in terms of astronomic season, earth's location as it orbit around the sun. In addition, it turns out that its close to when the Arctic sea ice will starts its extent. The links below shows an interactive graph of the Arctic sea ice extent, this season has warm waters in the region hence the sea ice extent was low, however it will most likely not exceed the record of lowest sea ice extent which was observe back 2012. BTW, it shows historic graphs for sea ice extent for the Antarctic as well.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/


In addition, Sept is when scientist starts charting ice/snow accumulation on Greenland. Where and the intensity of the albedo effect is determine by the location of the snow and ice. The early forecast by Bastardi suggest a weaken polar vortex, meaning the Arctic air pressure will be high.

 

[jack97]

Blob appears to be getting weaker. Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (long term average for the month) shows less warmth as compare to a month ago.

Mean while, further up north, the snow cover is on.