Another General Weather Forecast... but No Climate Data Debates... Thread

[crgildart]

Are Mid Atlantic resorts going to have enough cold temps mid November to be open Thanksgiving weekend? That's what I'd like to know right this minute!

 

[Eleeski]

I'm a little worried. I just went for a swim in the ocean in San Diego. Trunked it, warmer than most Fourth of Julys. Last time the water was warm late in San Diego, there was something they called the "blob" that steered all the winter El Nino storms away from California. Nobody is talking about that at this time but I'm still concerned.

Fun swim at least.

Eric

 

[crgildart]

We had low 80s Thursday and might hit 80 again middle of next. It used to be "Indian Summer " to hit 80 in October. Now it seems more likely to run the air conditioner than load up skis on Thanksgiving. I'm still hoping as always that snow miser hits the mountains next week and sticks around until April.

 

[TonyC]

I'm a little worried. I just went for a swim in the ocean in San Diego. Trunked it, warmer than most Fourth of Julys. Last time the water was warm late in San Diego, there was something they called the "blob" that steered all the winter El Nino storms away from California. Nobody is talking about that at this time but I'm still concerned. Fun swim at least.

Eric

I haven't had as much beach time as most summers, but this one was not much above normal IMHO. "The blob" was the distinguishing feature of the 2013-14 and 2014-15 ski seasons. Summer of 2014 was probably the warmest SoCal ocean I can recall in 40+ years of swimming here: 75F in Ventura in July, 70+ from mid-May to mid-November at LA/OC beaches. The October/November warm water lasted as long in 2015, but the 2015-16 El Nino broke up "the blob," per several weather guys who were studying it.

It's still way early, but recent storms are not doing much south of far northern California and Wyoming.

 

[crgildart]

That first real cool damp blast is here in central NC. I suspect they will have an opportunity to blast some snow this weekend up high. I guess they will set up and go for it if temps look stable enough over the next week for base to stay frozen..

 

[Jellybeans1000]

Lots of snow around the Northern American continent.

 

[TonyC]

There's a very sharp north/south demarcation line on that map, and a review of weather sites today indicates near unanimity among forecasters that it will stay that way as far as they can see during this month. For those considering trips before mid-December, plan accordingly. Targhee is the obvious standout now. The PNW is in line for a few storms over the next week. Odds favor a worthwhile December at Whistler.

 

[Bigtinnie]

For those stressing about the possibility no snow in California/Utah/Colorado for your Christmas vacation the same late start happened last year.
I remember SHREDHEAD from Epic profoundly advising that “a late start is a harbinger for good holiday season conditions” or words to that effect.
I don’t know if that was well researched advice however............

 

[TonyC]

I remember SHREDHEAD from Epic profoundly advising that “a late start is a harbinger for good holiday season conditions” or words to that effect.
I don’t know if that was well researched advice however............

It is not well researched at all. I have mountains of data showing snowfall two months apart has zero correlation and that snowfall one month apart has weak positive correlation. So there is no evidence whatsoever that clear weather today is a harbinger of stormy weather a month from now or vice versa.

If you throw out the first half of November, common sense tells you that normal snowfall thereafter will result in winter base depths being achieved a week or two later than normal. Decembers of 2007 and 2016 were happy exceptions, examples of weather volatility just like the dry early Novembers were. As for last year, even though the weather turned snowy in late November, skiing was still quite limited well into December. Base depths and open terrain did not get above average until the third weekend of December.

Last year's dry first half of November encompassed nearly the entire western US. This year is not as severe or widespread. Only California, Utah and the Southwest will look as bad in mid-November as last year. The Northwest and Northern Rockies will be above average and Colorado north of I-70 close to average.

 

[Bigtinnie]

It is not well researched at all. I have mountains of data showing snowfall two months apart has zero correlation and that snowfall one month apart has weak positive correlation. So there is no evidence whatsoever that clear weather today is a harbinger of stormy weather a month from now or vice versa.

If you throw out the first half of November, common sense tells you that normal snowfall thereafter will result in winter base depths being achieved a week or two later than normal. Decembers of 2007 and 2016 were happy exceptions, examples of weather volatility just like the dry early Novembers were. As for last year, even though the weather turned snowy in late November, skiing was still quite limited well into December. Base depths and open terrain did not get above average until the third weekend of December.

Last year's dry first half of November encompassed nearly the entire western US. This year is not as severe or widespread. Only California, Utah and the Southwest will look as bad in mid-November as last year. The Northwest and Northern Rockies will be above average and Colorado north of I-70 close to average.

My SHREDHEAD quote (and reference to research) was said in jest.
Good thing lots of holiday skiers are intermediates. A couple of decent storms covers the blue cruiser runs.

 

[jack97]

JB was hedging it months ago, now the models and teleconnections are converging. The North East is getting the cold start for Dec, enuf for man made snow. Went to WIldcat yesterday, cover was good from t2b on two main sections, lots of race and ski teams on the the mountain.

Time will tell if JB got it right in terms of precip.... giving him a mulligan if he is off by a week or two in terms of when the non crystalline stuff starts falling down.