This data source is looking good for our region and the Midwest! What's Joe Bastardi got so far?
Are saying we are a bunch on deniers?Yeah, every reg here knows the long term forecasts are junk.
I am going with a long range forecast of shorter days and a lower sun angle.
... And particularly scattered light toward morning. (george carlin)
I'm curious how the weather was the winter of 2005-06.
I don't have data on that.
Fortunately, we have a member who does have data on that.
http://bestsnow.net/seas06.htm
It looks like snow levels in Tahoe were a bit above normal the season after Hurricane Katrina
Watching Hurricane Harvey on tv this morning is reminiscent of Katrina
But its weather pattern that I'm interested in and I wonder if it will make an impact on the season.
Here's the summary.
http://bestsnow.net/summ06.htm
You can't ignore climate change. Temps in the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico can have a significant effect on snowfall. Take a warm Gulf and sustained low pressure over Albuquerque and Coloradans have to start shoveling their roofs. The conditions that have led to stronger hurricanes this year CAN lead to more moisture in winter storms.
All that said, my experience is that local patterns persist, and winter is consistently later each year. Snowy
months are snowier and dry months are drier. In Colorado you can almost start your season in February and have an amazing season as long as you ski to June.
I've been looking at the snow data going back 40+ years and the bottom line is that the only effect upon skiing is a rise in the rain/snow line. The effect is modest so far and nonexistent in the Rocky Mountains and in Colorado in particular.You can't ignore climate change.
This is primarily a spring phenomenon and accounts for the seasonal bump in snowfall along the Front Range/Continental Divide.Take a warm Gulf and sustained low pressure over Albuquerque and Coloradans have to start shoveling their roofs.
I have mountains of data over the past 40+ years disproving this assertion. There is zero change in volatility of snowfall during that time.local patterns persist, and winter is consistently later each year. Snowy
months are snowier and dry months are drier.
That has always been a good rule of thumb. With gradual accumulation of low water content snow but superb preservation, the quality of most Colorado skiing has always been highly skewed toward late season.In Colorado you can almost start your season in February and have an amazing season as long as you ski to June.
That was a dumb mindset 40 years ago and it's still a dumb mindset if you care about the quality of your skiing.People still want to start skiing around Thanksgiving and switch to golf and bikes around April.
I've been looking at the snow data going back 40+ years and the bottom line is that the only effect upon skiing is a rise in the rain/snow line. The effect is modest so far and nonexistent in the Rocky Mountains and in Colorado in particular.
This is primarily a spring phenomenon and accounts for the seasonal bump in snowfall along the Front Range/Continental Divide.
As far as summer weather having any predictive value upon the ensuing winter, I don't buy that for a minute. November snowfall has zero correlation with January snowfall (same for other two month differences), so why should we think 6 month ahead weather has any discernable influence? I'm fairly sure Joel and other weather guys agree. There may be some confusion over examples like strong La Ninas, which influence cooler than normal summers along the West Coast along with more consistent Northwest storm tracks during the winter.
I have mountains of data over the past 40+ years disproving this assertion. There is zero change in volatility of snowfall during that time.
That has always been a good rule of thumb. With gradual accumulation of low water content snow but superb preservation, the quality of most Colorado skiing has always been highly skewed toward late season.
That was a dumb mindset 40 years ago and it's still a dumb mindset if you care about the quality of your skiing.
Well, that's why even high elevation western resorts have been making huge investments in snow making infrastructure. People still want to start skiing around Thanksgiving and switch to golf and bikes around April. Taking the Christmas holiday shopping and family/school kids vacations out of the ski season equation would be catastrophic to the industry economy.