Sounds pretty competitive! Someone has to win...
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Women’s SG St Moritz
- Thread starter Swede
- Start date
I'm beginning to think MS is pretty good
. At the rate she is winning so far this year she may catch Vonn in wins next year
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. At the rate she is winning so far this year she may catch Vonn in wins next year.
I'm beginning to think MS is pretty good
I think STENMARK already stated that it wouldn't make much difference if Vonn broke his record because if Shiffrin kept racing she would have it soon thereafter.
I don't have the time right now to comment on MS's season to date, and last weekend in particular. I have some thoughts, and thoughts about both the men and the women, and the respective fields in each discipline. Those injured, attempting to come back, etc. There are many, many moving parts.
MS has two nice SG wins, on the two easiest hills on the WC as things worked out. She won the parallel SL, which is great, another 100 points. Odd discipline, etc.
As far as this mythical career WC wins mark, if Mikaela skis though the 2022 Olympics {which she most assured will do} and is injury free, she might have 90+ by then. She will be 26, about to turn 27 at those games. So, sure if she stays healthy and on top of her game and decides to maybe ski until she is 31, after the 2026 games, that "record" is toast.
I think one factor, which we can get into later, is how they decide to manage her skiing. Her schedule, her calendar, which disciplines. Last year she won 12 WC's, 11 the year before. It keeps creeping up. Her ratio of wins to podiums is incredible. She wins twice asften as she simply podiums.
I'll tip my hand. Her SL, despite the two wins and the PSL win, is nowhere near as good as it once was. Nor is her GS. The GS field is very strong, and she is not a lock of the podium, let alone wins. We'll see in Europe. Many close to this are wondering what the "plan" should be.
And don't read into the SG wins. I know somebody who was coaching at the U16 NPS SG project, and he got video of her in in St. Moritz, right away. He was going to show it to some of the athletes, and let them point out the pluses, etc. The coach who sent it to the guy back her pin the US said something like "not sure if you'll want to do that." The surface was no WC surface, the hill is very gentle, and a few things were absent in her skiing like a tuck!
It's going to be a big challenge to be at the top of the world in SL, and stay there, and ski much SG...let alone any DH. A few people have mentioned her olympics last winter. She was exhausted when she arrived. It seems like folks outside of the sport do not want to listen or believe that skiing SL, GS, SG and DH......and being at the top.....is impossible these days. Bode was the last guy to do it. The calendar is worse now, and he basically gave up on his SL over his last five years. Barely trained.
Mikaela has what, 48 wins? Something like that. Including 5 this season. So if she is healthy she will crush whatever number LV reaches, or if she falls short, Stenmark's 86. If she goes through 2026, how many? 120?, 130?, 140?
It's a nice milestone, and fun....not really a record, IMO. But, if it can help LV's business, and her brand, all good for her. And same later on for MS. At the very top, the tip of the pinnacle, this is a BIG business. Big income. Funny as when you get down to the second 50 of the world rankings, it's not even close. It's a struggle to make ends meet. Those of us in this country who follow so many pro sports don't realize how dismal it his. I know men and women ranked 30 to 80 who are paying $50K to do this every season, paying, not earning a dime.
So, the income at the very top will keep the very best skiers, if healthy enough, at this for some time. The very top income has never been higher. For a handful.
MS has youth, health, and skill all going for her. And her entire life has been devoted to the sport. Don't see that changing.
MS has two nice SG wins, on the two easiest hills on the WC as things worked out. She won the parallel SL, which is great, another 100 points. Odd discipline, etc.
As far as this mythical career WC wins mark, if Mikaela skis though the 2022 Olympics {which she most assured will do} and is injury free, she might have 90+ by then. She will be 26, about to turn 27 at those games. So, sure if she stays healthy and on top of her game and decides to maybe ski until she is 31, after the 2026 games, that "record" is toast.
I think one factor, which we can get into later, is how they decide to manage her skiing. Her schedule, her calendar, which disciplines. Last year she won 12 WC's, 11 the year before. It keeps creeping up. Her ratio of wins to podiums is incredible. She wins twice asften as she simply podiums.
I'll tip my hand. Her SL, despite the two wins and the PSL win, is nowhere near as good as it once was. Nor is her GS. The GS field is very strong, and she is not a lock of the podium, let alone wins. We'll see in Europe. Many close to this are wondering what the "plan" should be.
And don't read into the SG wins. I know somebody who was coaching at the U16 NPS SG project, and he got video of her in in St. Moritz, right away. He was going to show it to some of the athletes, and let them point out the pluses, etc. The coach who sent it to the guy back her pin the US said something like "not sure if you'll want to do that." The surface was no WC surface, the hill is very gentle, and a few things were absent in her skiing like a tuck!
It's going to be a big challenge to be at the top of the world in SL, and stay there, and ski much SG...let alone any DH. A few people have mentioned her olympics last winter. She was exhausted when she arrived. It seems like folks outside of the sport do not want to listen or believe that skiing SL, GS, SG and DH......and being at the top.....is impossible these days. Bode was the last guy to do it. The calendar is worse now, and he basically gave up on his SL over his last five years. Barely trained.
Mikaela has what, 48 wins? Something like that. Including 5 this season. So if she is healthy she will crush whatever number LV reaches, or if she falls short, Stenmark's 86. If she goes through 2026, how many? 120?, 130?, 140?
It's a nice milestone, and fun....not really a record, IMO. But, if it can help LV's business, and her brand, all good for her. And same later on for MS. At the very top, the tip of the pinnacle, this is a BIG business. Big income. Funny as when you get down to the second 50 of the world rankings, it's not even close. It's a struggle to make ends meet. Those of us in this country who follow so many pro sports don't realize how dismal it his. I know men and women ranked 30 to 80 who are paying $50K to do this every season, paying, not earning a dime.
So, the income at the very top will keep the very best skiers, if healthy enough, at this for some time. The very top income has never been higher. For a handful.
MS has youth, health, and skill all going for her. And her entire life has been devoted to the sport. Don't see that changing.
Though I fully agree, I wanted to point out that on the women's side, Riesch, Vonn, and Maze all did ski 4 disciplines pretty recently (including Maze's incredible 2013 campaign). None of these athletes needed anywhere close to the same training volume as MS.
In a similar vein, I'm curious how many starts Michelle Gisin is going to have this year. She has started every world cup race to date (scoring in all except the PSL). She's a podium threat in speed and an outside podium threat in SL. Curious how many GS starts she'll have going forward.
[QUOTE="4ster, .....I guess this is the only Parallel for the season? at least for the women. I really like this event & think iit would be cool if it was a little longer with a bit bigger turns & its own 18 meterish skis. I think that would open it up for some of the bigger turn skiers to be competitive. It really looked like everyone was having fun !
[/QUOTE]
Probably won't happen and I agree. Doing this with a little closer to GS turns will put the athletes at unwarranted risk. In dual slalom there is a risk of racers crashing into each other add a slighly rounder and longer turn and the risk factor would go up quite a bit and the last thing you, we or the WC needs is two racers hitting each other head on or even a little as the chance of injury would be pretty high.
Have seen these crashes and they aren't pretty. Granted they were mere amateurs compared to WC racers. Actually this would make the crash worse as they are going so much faster.
![/QUOTE]
Probably won't happen and I agree. Doing this with a little closer to GS turns will put the athletes at unwarranted risk. In dual slalom there is a risk of racers crashing into each other add a slighly rounder and longer turn and the risk factor would go up quite a bit and the last thing you, we or the WC needs is two racers hitting each other head on or even a little as the chance of injury would be pretty high.
Have seen these crashes and they aren't pretty. Granted they were mere amateurs compared to WC racers. Actually this would make the crash worse as they are going so much faster.
Yeah I noticed this also - she skied pretty upright...
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I'm interested in what criteria race insiders would consider being proven wrong in their "impossible" evaluation. Would a Overall, 1st Slalom, 2nd GS, 2SG and top 5 DH show that indeed it is possible? I'm also interested in what insiders think her motivation is. That she just loves the challenge that Speed provides for her or is it sponsor or other outsider that is driving this. By the way, last year she was 1 Overall, 3 GS, 1 SL, 5 DH and not in top 5 in SG so seems like she was pretty darn close.
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This simply has to do with finding the time to travel, to train, to rest, etc.Doing them all is tough. Tina Maze did it, then fell to pieces physically, then retired. And she lived in Italy, and had the entire budget of the Slovenian team funding her program, and her coach, now husband. Even then, it was not the same. Fewer events were cancelled and re-scheduled for example. LV has won a WC SL, and was when she started this ski racing thing a better SL skier than anything else. Her SL made her a threat in the combined, obviously. THEN, she scaled back to the very, very occasional SL start. Kind of Like MS in DH. And then, the GS slowed down and came out of her program for the most part.
I am not pretending to know the magic formula. I do know a LOT of people involved in her coaching ad her program over the past five years, and their general thinking is that it CRAZY for her to ski every event. And, again, those who I know, who are close to this, real close, absolutely agree that her SL is not what it was, nor is her GS. Forget the wins, the basic performance is not the same. Could be many factors.
She no doubt loves SG, and I would not be surprised if she loves DH. That creates a lot of issues. Because she IS the best SL skier ever, even if her skiing has slipped.
All I can say is that it is NOT simple to resolve. MS flies exclusively with her small team on a private jet, not matter how close or far. They are trying to make travel as easy as possible. You want a special bed in every place you sleep....DONE. Still, there are only son many hours on the week, weeks in the month, months in the season. And living in Europe makes it much, much easier.
Who's driving the bus? Mikaela, her agent, her parents, her coaches, for the most part. He sponsors aren't in on this stuff. They try to deal with her personal appearances and that stuff in the off season. Atomic could care less what she is racing as long as she is viewed as the best in the sport. Or close. And constantly in the public eye. She has just "killed it" in every regard at the start of this season.
Skiing EVERY SL, PSL, City Event, GS, SG, DH, Combined?? Look at the schedule. Not doable.
Gisin? We'll see. We don't have a lock on how to mismanage an athlete. She might ski every start. Dunno. I know a guy who had over 85 race starts in a season....FIS, NorAms, Continental Cups, Europa Cups. All disciplines. August into May. Doesn't mean it was smart. Took a lot out of him.
Rest is getting to be more of an issue and more of a focus at this level. It's huge for MS. That plays against the every event, every discipline thought. Just hearing, and therefore just saying.
I am not pretending to know the magic formula. I do know a LOT of people involved in her coaching ad her program over the past five years, and their general thinking is that it CRAZY for her to ski every event. And, again, those who I know, who are close to this, real close, absolutely agree that her SL is not what it was, nor is her GS. Forget the wins, the basic performance is not the same. Could be many factors.
She no doubt loves SG, and I would not be surprised if she loves DH. That creates a lot of issues. Because she IS the best SL skier ever, even if her skiing has slipped.
All I can say is that it is NOT simple to resolve. MS flies exclusively with her small team on a private jet, not matter how close or far. They are trying to make travel as easy as possible. You want a special bed in every place you sleep....DONE. Still, there are only son many hours on the week, weeks in the month, months in the season. And living in Europe makes it much, much easier.
Who's driving the bus? Mikaela, her agent, her parents, her coaches, for the most part. He sponsors aren't in on this stuff. They try to deal with her personal appearances and that stuff in the off season. Atomic could care less what she is racing as long as she is viewed as the best in the sport. Or close. And constantly in the public eye. She has just "killed it" in every regard at the start of this season.
Skiing EVERY SL, PSL, City Event, GS, SG, DH, Combined?? Look at the schedule. Not doable.
Gisin? We'll see. We don't have a lock on how to mismanage an athlete. She might ski every start. Dunno. I know a guy who had over 85 race starts in a season....FIS, NorAms, Continental Cups, Europa Cups. All disciplines. August into May. Doesn't mean it was smart. Took a lot out of him.
Rest is getting to be more of an issue and more of a focus at this level. It's huge for MS. That plays against the every event, every discipline thought. Just hearing, and therefore just saying.
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I went back to review Bode's career and 2005 was amazing - 1 OA, 15SL, 2 GS, 1SG and 2DH. Crazy good. Just for context if you take totals and low total is best then 2005 was Bode's best year with a total of 21. He never came close again - his best was 2006 with a 59 total. MS had a total of 38 last year and I bet she comes in lower this year. So in my opinion, she already is doing it and doesn't have to race every race to do so. Although on the other hand I think she paid for it at the Olympics. I agree this wouldn't be feasible on the mens side today.
On the other hand, the at what cost consideration is not to be taken lightly. One really bad crash in a speed event or just the general wear and tear effect on her technical events is a real consideration. My guess is she is loving the speed and so it will be hard to hold her back. Hopefully she has some real smart people helping her figure out the perfect mix.
On the other hand, the at what cost consideration is not to be taken lightly. One really bad crash in a speed event or just the general wear and tear effect on her technical events is a real consideration. My guess is she is loving the speed and so it will be hard to hold her back. Hopefully she has some real smart people helping her figure out the perfect mix.
"She's loving speed....." A lot of women love SG at St. Moritz, and more at Lake Louise. She has a long way to go to develop into a consistent top of the podium speed skier. I won't enumerate on it all. It's perhaps the most challenging discipline, and it varies tremendously based on the venue: the hill, the surface, the light, the set, the weather. So, I am going to wait and see. That simple.
She has a very good team around her. No question. These are not Mikaela only decisions. We're not dealing with a 19 year old club skier. And, at the risk of sounding like a broken record, these are big decisions. Some may recall when she first started to get back into SG and then DH at the WC level, there were a number of people, deeply immersed in the sport and familiar with her who expressed some concern. Is this good? How will it impact her ability to train SL as much? She is just getting her GS game improved, how will it impact that? I don't think we have those answers. I do know that she is not skiing the same in SL. Is she winning? Yep. Let's not get into all of the reasons. Others are catching up and closing margins.
Back when Bode was skiing all disciplines, and Reisch, Maze, there were fewer one and two even specialists. That's a factor as well. Not just "tech" or "speed" specialists, but one discipline skiers. Quite common in SL. The top USST Mae GS skiers, Ligety and Ford are looking a lot more like GS specialists.
You can go look at Wiki, at the FIS site, and tick of count numbers for all of this stuff. Good on you. I'm relying on conversations with people IN the sport, and their opinion that in 2018-2019, it's too big an ask to do them all. Now what I will grant you is very unusual is that MS can surely ski a very limited slate of SG's, and be a threat in most if not all. DH takes so much more time, more training runs, and even training is very time consuming. So, "something has to give. What is it?
So you have a 24 year old who is the best SL skier ever, and who generates a lot of discussion about her GS upside {and varying opinions}. Many think she could be a dominant GS skier, if it came together. Do you manage her to try to get back to crushing the field in SL, every run? And to be a lock for the podium in every GS, and winning a majority? Or.....when does a simple statement like "I love SG!" come into play. I have heard people say that "If her GS setup was right, and her skis better, she might love GS a lot more!"
Tom H, are those numbers his final season rankings by discipline? He won the overall in 2008, and even then, 11 seasons ago, he was a non factor on SL. He may not have been qualified for World Cup Finals in SL. His SL was done, cooked before then, and his GS was pretty done around then. Not what it once was. he was a speed skier at that point. He still talks about this issue of how skiing all disciplines is not doable. Just his opinion. Might carry more weight with some fans.
She has a very good team around her. No question. These are not Mikaela only decisions. We're not dealing with a 19 year old club skier. And, at the risk of sounding like a broken record, these are big decisions. Some may recall when she first started to get back into SG and then DH at the WC level, there were a number of people, deeply immersed in the sport and familiar with her who expressed some concern. Is this good? How will it impact her ability to train SL as much? She is just getting her GS game improved, how will it impact that? I don't think we have those answers. I do know that she is not skiing the same in SL. Is she winning? Yep. Let's not get into all of the reasons. Others are catching up and closing margins.
Back when Bode was skiing all disciplines, and Reisch, Maze, there were fewer one and two even specialists. That's a factor as well. Not just "tech" or "speed" specialists, but one discipline skiers. Quite common in SL. The top USST Mae GS skiers, Ligety and Ford are looking a lot more like GS specialists.
You can go look at Wiki, at the FIS site, and tick of count numbers for all of this stuff. Good on you. I'm relying on conversations with people IN the sport, and their opinion that in 2018-2019, it's too big an ask to do them all. Now what I will grant you is very unusual is that MS can surely ski a very limited slate of SG's, and be a threat in most if not all. DH takes so much more time, more training runs, and even training is very time consuming. So, "something has to give. What is it?
So you have a 24 year old who is the best SL skier ever, and who generates a lot of discussion about her GS upside {and varying opinions}. Many think she could be a dominant GS skier, if it came together. Do you manage her to try to get back to crushing the field in SL, every run? And to be a lock for the podium in every GS, and winning a majority? Or.....when does a simple statement like "I love SG!" come into play. I have heard people say that "If her GS setup was right, and her skis better, she might love GS a lot more!"
Tom H, are those numbers his final season rankings by discipline? He won the overall in 2008, and even then, 11 seasons ago, he was a non factor on SL. He may not have been qualified for World Cup Finals in SL. His SL was done, cooked before then, and his GS was pretty done around then. Not what it once was. he was a speed skier at that point. He still talks about this issue of how skiing all disciplines is not doable. Just his opinion. Might carry more weight with some fans.
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His Wiki page has discipline standings by year. I always found it odd that MS always says how Bode was her favorite skier given how different their personalities are. Perhaps her ambition is to be a dominant all around skier like Bode as opposed to a dominant technical skier like Stenmark or Hirscher. Which are the technical tracks on the women’s World Cup SG and Downhill? I’d like to keep an eye on those to see how she stacks up against the speed specialists. Is it possible that migrating to the speed events as one ages like LV and BM extends ones career and could be a natural progression for her as she ages?
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Thanks. I will watch and see if she improves on her 7th in the DH there last year (quite a bit behind the winner)
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The next four SG's are a likely a lot different than the first two, based on history. In order:
Val Gardena
St. Anton
Cortina
Garmish-Partenkirchen
I would say they ar the most challenging. Val Gardena is a men's stop, and I have no idea what they will do to the hill for the women. It sure as hell will not be the same. No way.
Then there are FIS World Champ, Are SWE, and a speed series in Russia at Rosa Khutor including SG. World Cup finals are in Andorra. I do not know a thing about Andorra, and I have watched the same stuff that everybody else did at Sochi. Are, I some is a relative speaking easy hill.
So not like there are a ton of SG's on the ladies calendar. My guess? I think she skis the SG at Are, and at WCF's. I bet she does not make the trip to Russia.
I would bet that she skips Val Gardena, skis St. Anton and Cortina. Skips Garmish. That's based on what else is scheduled near them. She needs SL and GS training and does NOT do well without it before she races. St. Anton is right after the Flachau SL, which winds up a bunch of tech events on the calendar. She could then do Cortina {travel is so easy} and leave herself a week for rest and a training block before the Maribor tech races and then another break before the WC's in Are.
This is a silly guess only. Have gotten zero intel on this.
But seriously, don't overthink it. Pretty simple. She needs to train. She does best with a LOT of training. She needs to rest. She does best with considerable rest. We saw that break down last season, when she was worn down. She will want to see her BF. And when you then look at the calendar and schedule over the rest of this month and the next three, you see that jamming it all in there is "a real challenge." Throw in a bad cold, and it gets worse.
I am trying to explain the issues in trying to do it all, and be on the podium. it almost backfired on her last season. And her best discipline is suffering. She can beat anybody in this field by a second on a very average run in SL, when she's on. She has the talent to win at anything, no question. I think folks just don’t grasp that there is not enough time...particularly for her and how she and her team/group go about things.
Wish her the best in all her starts.
Val Gardena
St. Anton
Cortina
Garmish-Partenkirchen
I would say they ar the most challenging. Val Gardena is a men's stop, and I have no idea what they will do to the hill for the women. It sure as hell will not be the same. No way.
Then there are FIS World Champ, Are SWE, and a speed series in Russia at Rosa Khutor including SG. World Cup finals are in Andorra. I do not know a thing about Andorra, and I have watched the same stuff that everybody else did at Sochi. Are, I some is a relative speaking easy hill.
So not like there are a ton of SG's on the ladies calendar. My guess? I think she skis the SG at Are, and at WCF's. I bet she does not make the trip to Russia.
I would bet that she skips Val Gardena, skis St. Anton and Cortina. Skips Garmish. That's based on what else is scheduled near them. She needs SL and GS training and does NOT do well without it before she races. St. Anton is right after the Flachau SL, which winds up a bunch of tech events on the calendar. She could then do Cortina {travel is so easy} and leave herself a week for rest and a training block before the Maribor tech races and then another break before the WC's in Are.
This is a silly guess only. Have gotten zero intel on this.
But seriously, don't overthink it. Pretty simple. She needs to train. She does best with a LOT of training. She needs to rest. She does best with considerable rest. We saw that break down last season, when she was worn down. She will want to see her BF. And when you then look at the calendar and schedule over the rest of this month and the next three, you see that jamming it all in there is "a real challenge." Throw in a bad cold, and it gets worse.
I am trying to explain the issues in trying to do it all, and be on the podium. it almost backfired on her last season. And her best discipline is suffering. She can beat anybody in this field by a second on a very average run in SL, when she's on. She has the talent to win at anything, no question. I think folks just don’t grasp that there is not enough time...particularly for her and how she and her team/group go about things.
Wish her the best in all her starts.
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I like to look at the career of Anja Paerson. In 2004, at the age of 22, she was untouchable in SL and GS. Won 5 GS and 6 SL and the overall that year. She started to try speed events, and was ranked 15 in super G and 42nd in DH, with no speed wins.
Speed training, and the injuries that accompanied, took their toll. In the next seven seasons she only won 3 more GS and 4 more SL total. (Along with 12 speed and combined events.) She had conquered the tech events and wanted to move on to speed, but simply could not excel in both and gave up dominance in one for some success in the other.
Speed training, and the injuries that accompanied, took their toll. In the next seven seasons she only won 3 more GS and 4 more SL total. (Along with 12 speed and combined events.) She had conquered the tech events and wanted to move on to speed, but simply could not excel in both and gave up dominance in one for some success in the other.
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All these reasons why she should not do it are clearly obvious to her team. The more interesting and relevant question is why she is doing it - even it seems after last years experience.
Wait and see what she actually does ski....it’s early December. I think the decisions up until now were quite easy, and predictable. Things change quite a bit when the WC moves to Europe. It will be interesting. And yes, a number of people involved in the decision making. I think her schedule is planned to the day, even the hour, months in advance....subject to change as things unfold.
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Pretty darn humbling:
"As we continue down an ever more costly club training model in our country, here we have a bucket brigade farming water out of a creek to prep one of the best skiers in the world for the upcoming parallel. There’s another video of her working on her starts in the horse gates she was invited to use by its owner - the German team. Her federation can’t afford one. Yet she pushed the indomitable Mikaela Shiffrin to her very limit in that parallel. To answer your question, they hauled 500 gallons in all, one bucket at a time."
"As we continue down an ever more costly club training model in our country, here we have a bucket brigade farming water out of a creek to prep one of the best skiers in the world for the upcoming parallel. There’s another video of her working on her starts in the horse gates she was invited to use by its owner - the German team. Her federation can’t afford one. Yet she pushed the indomitable Mikaela Shiffrin to her very limit in that parallel. To answer your question, they hauled 500 gallons in all, one bucket at a time."