I assume that SB has had some serious financial modeling going on, and that they have hopefully had some decent consumer insight research to have more than a guess at what may happen. But that costs money, and even then it is far from a guarantee. The assumptions can be wrong, and how the insight is interpreted equally off base. Not perfect. And this is very new ground for Nrw England and VT.
We have probably all seen a variety of businesses who felt that to survive they suddenly had to compete on a gutted price. And a lot of them felt they would make it up on volume. I am struggling to think of one that worked long term. Seriously. The move from quality to "value" is brutal.
With this one, I can assume that they MIGHT hold on to some of that group of day skiers who have no unusual stickiness that would otherwise keep them at SB. I'm not sure. Epic might be a huge draw, let alone Stowe at under $1K.
I guess it all depends on how many season passes are currently sold, and to whom. Many factors.
I know a lot of second home owners in that area, and they would not move regardless of the price pass. I know a lot of people connected to the race programs at various ages. Same thing. I know a lot of people who day trip from Chittenden County, and I think many might now head to Stowe, but a few are very concerned with weekend and holiday crowds. On hil capacity as well as General logistics. I doubt if matching price is the silver bullet to keep them. I don't know if they they need to. For a SB skier, I think Stowe has a few question marks.
I should note that all of these friends are weekend skiers for the most part. If you can ski midweek, and do so at Stowe on an Epic pass, that seems very attractive to the Cittenden County crowd.
So, yes, I don't see how his hangs together for Sugarbush. Or why they feel like they need to go this far.
Might as well start the rumor that Win is in a panic and that the place is about to become actively for sale. When O-Z closes on the CNL sale, and starts to sell those properties off, an organization like Boyne might want to take a run at SB, and not be intimidated by VR. It seems based on this move like consolidating with others might be on the table or close.
My gut and experience just screams at me that this is a very strange strategy for SB. Maybe they have been researching this since the rumors started in fall, and are very comfortable that this is the only way to go.
Does anybody know on a weekend day what percentage of those on the hill are skiing with a season pass? That factors into it, as well.
I do not see this as the norm, BTW. Every NE ski area that I am familiar with is operating on a thin margin in the best of years. Combine that with almost no new skiers{you have to steal them from somebody else} old, aging lifts and decaying infrastructure and this solution to gut price is perplexing to me.
What makes it really interesting is that a number of us are at least curious about what Stowe will look like on an average weekend day. I skied there most weekends of my life until we pulled up roots in 1994. And we have been back 2-3 times a season since, in most years. I thought the changes were sugnificant {some VERY positive} before VR entered the picture. Now....just curious.
It is already so much different than it was not all that long ago. I chuckle when I think about my old parking spots,etc.
Will others drop price? Smuggs? Jay? Burke or even Bolton? Very interesting. Kind of scary to my thinking.....Does this pressure Okemo, K, and even the Southern VT areas? Not sure why it would. It seems very premature.
Friends of mine who own homes in Stowe are not on a tight budget. To be honest, if this goes sideways in terms of numbers, I can see a number pulling up stakes even though they love Stowe. And frankly I can see them heading down the road.
This is nothing like the rest of the VR portfolio, and I just do not see the "feeder" aspect of this one. A month ago I was in Aspen with two Stowe couples who hate Vail, and petty much every Vail property. No interest even if free.
This will be interesting. We were very close to buying property in Stowe last summer. Glad that is on hold. As long as most of my skiing is still on weekends, this thing bears watching for me.
I don't think it is anything like Squaw, either. I have a reasonable handle on that one, too, people who buy season passes in NE use them. I think the numbers show quite a bit.
BTW, the numbers, decay and aging are what had really prevented any of the bigger current players from making deals in NE. It gets "real"
when you hear these guys list some well known and fairly big areas that they would not "take on for free....." Take those areas and cut your price. How is that going to work?
We'll see!
