@nay, I don't think you really understand the CAIC. The CAIC produces macro level forecasts for the 10 zones of Colorado. Local conditions within a zone can differ substantially (like your microclimate analogy), and standard practice for a guiding service, particularly one that operates a cat skiing operation, is to do their own snow analysis. The guides are out every day assessing the snowpack and drawing their own conclusions about the stuff they are going to ski. This local information is far more relevant than the info that is produced by an agency that is looking at weather data, some observations they may have made in the field but are highly likely NOT to be on the slopes the guide service is likely to ski, and are tailored to the general conditions across a very large geographic area.Despite this clearly worded warning, a commercial operation goes up into Jones Pass, which is one of the listed target areas in the warning zone, and exactly what was warned happens.
My bets are firmly placed that the CAIC report is not where this ends.
@nay, I don't think you really understand the CAIC. The CAIC produces macro level forecasts for the 10 zones of Colorado. Local conditions within a zone can differ substantially (like your microclimate analogy), and standard practice for a guiding service, particularly one that operates a cat skiing operation, is to do their own snow analysis. The guides are out every day assessing the snowpack and drawing their own conclusions about the stuff they are going to ski. This local information is far more relevant than the info that is produced by an agency that is looking at weather data, some observations they may have made in the field but are highly likely NOT to be on the slopes the guide service is likely to ski, and are tailored to the general conditions across a very large geographic area.
Jones Pass is in the Front range Zone, but the warning was not specific to any specific area -- it was an assessment of the conditions that might arise within the zone.
All that being said, we still do not have all the facts about what happened. It does seem strange that they were out that day, but the accident report will provide a lot more facts than what we have right now.
Mike
Another house hit by an avalanche—this one at Taos
https://www.taosnews.com/stories/avalanche-crashes-into-house-at-taos-ski-valley,55700
Several of the Colorado Crew are at TSV right now. @SBrown @SkiNurse @Drahtguy Kevin please check in.
Shes the editor, so it must be.Hellllppppgllspshshavavdjphh
Mods, is that kind of language acceptable?
Three perish on Ben Nevis... That is extraordinary!
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/mar/13/climbers-forecasts-ben-nevis-avalanche-scotland
It's just tragic. I'm sure that the snowboarders are devastated by what happened. You can tell that they are not just dirtbags as they searched the debris pile for an hour prior to leaving, and they also made themselves known to the Sheriff.". . .triggered by a group of snowboarders who had ducked a rope and entered permanently closed terrain just off Telluride ski resort.
And killed a father of four doing so.
I hope for the family of the deceased the snowboarders have homeowners or renters insurance that can provide some economic compensation to the family. When they get out of jail, they can work to pay the remainder of the restitution to help support the victim's children. Innocent until proven guilty, of course.