Colorado Honestly, should I change my ski vaca plans due to lack of snow but will lose money

[Skistaff]

thanks for the post and well wishes. That's a little encouraging but at the same time leaves a lot to be guessed. At least in the sense of being unknown.

You know (for anyone whos listening) the whole average snow fall thing is very strange. And probably not just in telluride. But what I mean is this.
It is stated that Telluride receives an average of 300 per. Yet if you look at totals in different websites and weather info websites you cant seem to find a 300 average. Especially when we consider the town I suppose vs the mountain. The town is 8000 feet and then montan village up around 9 and of course the higher parts of the ski hills much higher than that. But its not like the town sits at 6000 or something so at 8000 it should equal close to the mountain in snow totals. And fwiw the ski resort ( a big chunck) of it does slope itself right into town so imo its very much all one unit in terms of snow fall.

You can look at (for on example - "on the snow" website) and go through its snow history by year and no where do you see totals of 300. yet its still claimed that's the average. It stands to reason that average means some years more and some years less. But honestly its almost all on the less side and in fact doesn't even come close to 300 many years.

Then if you search for telluride weather history (and I assume it takes the town of telluride into account and not the ski mountain) but I found the total average to be 175.

So the whole thing is very confusing. I must assume the total of 300 must consider the very highest points that may often sit in clouds and not a practical purposeful reality for the resorts skiing as a whole? Does that 300 really translate to the 175 or even 200 at most as for whats truly purposeful and truly usable for the skiing? that's a question to be applied to any resort and not just Telluride.

But even with the exaggeration (which probably goes on at any ski resort) its not like Im able to come up with anything close to 300 anyway.

So at any resort, just what is the real purposeful amount of snow falls vs these totals that we read about? I hope that make sense as a question.

In the case of telluride, If that figure is truly well below 300 and more like 200 and Jan and Dec are already gone there isn't going to be all that much to be optimistic about. I mean even with 300 as an average (which we now is exaggerated) the most we could expect now would be 150 of that exaggerated amount for the second half of winter. Does that really translate to perhaps only 75 or so inches of true purposeful snow?

How much the percentage of these average snow totals at most any resort we read about really translates to the actual skiing? Where do these average totals really come from?

As for telluride itself and this thread? Things will change I have little doubt. Honestly the way its gone this season it can only by default go up as you really cant get any lower..lol.
I think its safe to assume a whole chunk of tellurides skiable acreage will never recover to anything normal and much of which will probably not open. That doesn't mean much more terrain will not be open by march as I would assume it will offer plenty. But the resort imo is too far gone in order to ever approach its real potential.

There is more snow to come next couple days. but at that same time the snows that were in the extended forecast for next week seem to have now disappeared from that forecast. There was about a seven day run of snow expected but not anymore. So again we just wait and see if that again changes.

Very informative and logical (at the same time)thinking from the OP. I hope he'll find the best possible conditions no matter if he decides to keep or change the current destination.

 

[Mike King]

thanks for the post and well wishes. That's a little encouraging but at the same time leaves a lot to be guessed. At least in the sense of being unknown.

You know (for anyone whos listening) the whole average snow fall thing is very strange. And probably not just in telluride. But what I mean is this.
It is stated that Telluride receives an average of 300 per. Yet if you look at totals in different websites and weather info websites you cant seem to find a 300 average. Especially when we consider the town I suppose vs the mountain. The town is 8000 feet and then montan village up around 9 and of course the higher parts of the ski hills much higher than that. But its not like the town sits at 6000 or something so at 8000 it should equal close to the mountain in snow totals. And fwiw the ski resort ( a big chunck) of it does slope itself right into town so imo its very much all one unit in terms of snow fall.

You can look at (for on example - "on the snow" website) and go through its snow history by year and no where do you see totals of 300. yet its still claimed that's the average. It stands to reason that average means some years more and some years less. But honestly its almost all on the less side and in fact doesn't even come close to 300 many years.

Then if you search for telluride weather history (and I assume it takes the town of telluride into account and not the ski mountain) but I found the total average to be 175.

So the whole thing is very confusing. I must assume the total of 300 must consider the very highest points that may often sit in clouds and not a practical purposeful reality for the resorts skiing as a whole? Does that 300 really translate to the 175 or even 200 at most as for whats truly purposeful and truly usable for the skiing? that's a question to be applied to any resort and not just Telluride.

But even with the exaggeration (which probably goes on at any ski resort) its not like Im able to come up with anything close to 300 anyway.

So at any resort, just what is the real purposeful amount of snow falls vs these totals that we read about? I hope that make sense as a question.

In the case of telluride, If that figure is truly well below 300 and more like 200 and Jan and Dec are already gone there isn't going to be all that much to be optimistic about. I mean even with 300 as an average (which we now is exaggerated) the most we could expect now would be 150 of that exaggerated amount for the second half of winter. Does that really translate to perhaps only 75 or so inches of true purposeful snow?

How much the percentage of these average snow totals at most any resort we read about really translates to the actual skiing? Where do these average totals really come from?

As for telluride itself and this thread? Things will change I have little doubt. Honestly the way its gone this season it can only by default go up as you really cant get any lower..lol.
I think its safe to assume a whole chunk of tellurides skiable acreage will never recover to anything normal and much of which will probably not open. That doesn't mean much more terrain will not be open by march as I would assume it will offer plenty. But the resort imo is too far gone in order to ever approach its real potential.

There is more snow to come next couple days. but at that same time the snows that were in the extended forecast for next week seem to have now disappeared from that forecast. There was about a seven day run of snow expected but not anymore. So again we just wait and see if that again changes.

Snowfall is not measured at the base. It's measured at a weather station placed to track more representative conditions. Some of the best spring seasons in Colorado's history have occurred in low snowfall years. March is forever away.

It is now page 10 of a gripe session. Got it out of your system yet? I'd guess not.

Mike

 

[Muleski]

I've resisted commenting. Just go. Quit obsessing and worrying. Make the most of it.

We've been there a number of times. Once, mid 80's, it was late February. As we drove into town it was as predicted, a lot of brown, and very boney.

That night it snowed, and it kept up through the following night. Snowed two nights later, and again the following night. A LOT of snow. Maybe 5 feet? Changed at the snap of a finger.

It happens. I've been to most of the major ski destinations in North America, and have had great snow, and very lean snow or terrible weather. I've had both at the same places.

Telluride is beautiful and fun. Regardless of what you get for snow, make the best of it. And don't drive yourself nuts over it.

Cheers!

 

[Goose]

Snowfall is not measured at the base. It's measured at a weather station placed to track more representative conditions. Some of the best spring seasons in Colorado's history have occurred in low snowfall years. March is forever away.

It is now page 10 of a gripe session. Got it out of your system yet? I'd guess not.

Mike

Its not a 10 page gripe session. Please don't go there as its not truly reflective if you've read all of it along the way. The thread has been informative, a bit interesting at times, even a little fun along the way and more than just a gripe in a number of ways. Its even sparked some small side tracked discussions. Certainly not free from gripe but not really a fair statement.

As for the general snow fall averages that we read about. That in itself a separate discussion with an imo interesting question different from the actual gripe. And with that, you mention snows are measured at stations placed to track more representative conditions. But I would ask and is sort of what I asked in that post. There (it seems) are snow fall averages coinciding with the given ski resorts yet they don't seem to quite match the recorded history for the given area. And a lot of that may be related to the town vs the ski resort via elevations.

But are those higher averages stated only really at the peaks and such of the highest elevations..... so are they really the most representative of conditions as you say? Or is the higher averages full of a lot of non purposeful snow totals where as its the lower that may actually be more truly reflective and represent the true ski conditions?

 

[SShore]

I’ve ridden the lift with lots of people the last two weeks at Big Sky that have bailed on Utah and Colorado and have gotten in some great skiing. They didn’t obsess, just pulled the trigger and made a decision.

 

[dbostedo]

There (it seems) are snow fall averages coinciding with the given ski resorts yet they don't seem to quite match the recorded history for the given area. And a lot of that may be related to the town vs the ski resort via elevations.

First, a tall resort could easily have double the snowfall at the top as they do at the bottom. Second, most resorts pick someplace fairly sheltered (so wind doesn't affect measurements too much) and some where mid-mountain. Could be closer to the base or top, but somewhere on the mid-mountain.

So if you see 175 as a town average (by looking at a weather or climate site, for instance), it could be 350 up top, and 300 on a "representative" part of the mountain (as defined by the resort).

Tony Crocker has done lots of tracking and research and adjusting for overly early and late snow measurements (that don't affect ski season), and shows 280 inches for T'Ride. Read through all the info on bestsnow.net if you want to learn a bit.

 

[Goose]

I’ve ridden the lift with lots of people the last two weeks at Big Sky that have bailed on Utah and Colorado and have gotten in some great skiing. They didn’t obsess, just pulled the trigger and made a decision.

Im not really obsessing too much honestly at this point. Right now Im letting it ride for some more time as the thread continues. especially as of late been far too busy at work and also family issues tying and stressing me up. Believe it or not I actually come in here (this thread too) for a break and enjoyment. When you think about it, trying to consider changing a vacation is actually a good problem. It means Im going on vacation either way

 

[Skistaff]

Snowfall is not measured at the base. It's measured at a weather station placed to track more representative conditions. Some of the best spring seasons in Colorado's history have occurred in low snowfall years. March is forever away.

It is now page 10 of a gripe session. Got it out of your system yet? I'd guess not.

Mike

Someone is definitely reading the wrong thread.

 

[Lofcaudio]

I didn't cancel my plans, so I'll be at Telluride at the end of this month. I will be able to provide a good scouting report of the conditions. They are expecting a big dump tomorrow. We'll see how that goes.

 

[Goose]

I didn't cancel my plans, so I'll be at Telluride at the end of this month. I will be able to provide a good scouting report of the conditions. They are expecting a big dump tomorrow. We'll see how that goes.

Well, the "big" dump expected only left 4inches this far and currently via radar there is an opening in the storm magically parting Telluride like it has the plague..lol you cant make this stuff up. Its so comical.
Telluride website calls it "the storm is taking a break" right now. Like as if the storm needed to show mercy for having paralyzed the town with the 4inches. This place just cant catch a break at all this year. More of the storm is indeed expected to reappear over Telluride later on and this evening for a few hours. But the potential "Up to 2 feet" wished for has severely dwindled.
Its snow, its something, its good. But its kind of sad really. And the forecast for the near future isn't even as promising as it looked recently. At least the area via cams looks like a ski town today . So there is that much..lol But I sure hope between now and your trip the place gets something more substantial on at least a couple occasions before you get there. Im still 2 months out and although bothered by it Im not dying yet. Your just a couple weeks and not sure how your coping. Hopefully trips like this one for you come and go a bit easier and more often than it does for me where as you can shrug it off a bit more easily I really have no idea. Im actually looking forward to your trip and feedback and really do hope you got a lot more to work with than the current scenario.

 

[allgash]

Well, the "big" dump expected only left 4inches this far and currently via radar there is an opening in the storm magically parting Telluride like it has the plague..lol you cant make this stuff up. Its so comical.
Telluride website calls it "the storm is taking a break" right now. Like as if the storm needed to show mercy for having paralyzed the town with the 4inches. This place just cant catch a break at all this year. More of the storm is indeed expected to reappear over Telluride later on and this evening for a few hours. But the potential "Up to 2 feet" wished for has severely dwindled.
Its snow, its something, its good. But its kind of sad really. And the forecast for the near future isn't even as promising as it looked recently. At least the area via cams looks like a ski town today . So there is that much..lol But I sure hope between now and your trip the place gets something more substantial on at least a couple occasions before you get there. Im still 2 months out and although bothered by it Im not dying yet. Your just a couple weeks and not sure how your coping. Hopefully trips like this one for you come and go a bit easier and more often than it does for me where as you can shrug it off a bit more easily I really have no idea. Im actually looking forward to your trip and feedback and really do hope you got a lot more to work with than the current scenario.

Opensnow as of 3 hours ago is predicting 4-8" during the day and 3-6" at night, so check back tomorrow morning. I'm not sure though if the opening in the storm "magically parting Telluride" means that Opensnow's forecast will be optimistic or not .

 

[Lofcaudio]

This will be my 8th trip to Telluride (and my 4th to Aspen), so I'm not quite in the same boat as you are. I've skied Telluride when they had a reported base of 28" and still had a good time. I'm not an expert, so I can have a great time even if I'm relegated solely to groomers (which is how things are certainly looking with less than three weeks to go). I'm in a position where the option wasn't Telluride OR somewhere else. It was Telluride OR stay home. I'd rather take a road trip to Telluride and get out of the office for a few days...if I can get some skiing in, that would obviously be ideal.

The #1 place on my bucket list is Zermatt, Switzerland. That resort has been completely shut down due to TOO MUCH snow...very rare occurrence, but it's happening right now. Power outages, avalanches, no way in or out...serious situation. When you go on a ski trip, these are the things that can happen. You roll with it.

Telluride should be in good shape in two months.

 

[Monique]

Telluride website calls it "the storm is taking a break" right now. Like as if the storm needed to show mercy for having paralyzed the town with the 4inches. This place just cant catch a break at all this year. More of the storm is indeed expected to reappear over Telluride later on and this evening for a few hours. But the potential "Up to 2 feet" wished for has severely dwindled.

Funny you mention this. The guy who does OpenSnow's Breckenridge Daily Snow has a verbal tic that drives me nuts. When there's no snow, he calls it "catching a break." Whaaa? I have brought this up to him in a comment, but I don't think he understood what I was saying. At all. For a skier, hello, no snow is not "catching a break"!

 

[Goose]

This will be my 8th trip to Telluride (and my 4th to Aspen), so I'm not quite in the same boat as you are. I've skied Telluride when they had a reported base of 28" and still had a good time. I'm not an expert, so I can have a great time even if I'm relegated solely to groomers (which is how things are certainly looking with less than three weeks to go). I'm in a position where the option wasn't Telluride OR somewhere else. It was Telluride OR stay home. I'd rather take a road trip to Telluride and get out of the office for a few days...if I can get some skiing in, that would obviously be ideal.

The #1 place on my bucket list is Zermatt, Switzerland. That resort has been completely shut down due to TOO MUCH snow...very rare occurrence, but it's happening right now. Power outages, avalanches, no way in or out...serious situation. When you go on a ski trip, these are the things that can happen. You roll with it.

Telluride should be in good shape in two months.

that's interesting about Zermatt.

 

[James]

Too much snow may be worse as you can die or can't ski at all.

 

[Lofcaudio]

that's interesting about Zermatt.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/worl...-avalanche-warning-Valais-Switzerland-weather

 

[crgildart]

I'll gladly pay full price to ski an actual WROD pretty much anywhere I've never skied before for a day or two. Yes, I'd rather every place I travel to be 100% open the first time I manage to get out that way, but I enjoy the change of scenery and the journey almost as much as I do the activities when I get there. If there's less snow and only a few trails open I might ski fewer days and find other things to check out besides the skiing if skiing is not as good as I was hoping for..

 

[Mike King]

Telluride got 10-11 inches yesterday. http://avalanche.state.co.us/observations/weather-stations/

 

[at_nyc]

I sure hope between now and your trip the place gets something more substantial on at least a couple occasions before you get there. Im still 2 months out and although bothered by it Im not dying yet. Your just a couple weeks and not sure how your coping.

For some people, the glass is ALWAYS empty. Not just half empty, just empty...

For others, the glass is half full most of the time, and occasionally really FULL.

To plan a short trip to s destination that’s noted for significant snow fall AND condition fluctuations, a year ahead no less, is just asking for it.

Being optimistic or pessimistic doesn't make it snow nor does either one mean you cant be concerned about it and even act upon it.

Gamblers need to be optimists. Pessimists don’t make happy gamblers.

 

[Goose]

For some people, the glass is ALWAYS empty. Not just half empty, just empty...

For others, the glass is half full most of the time, and occasionally really FULL.

To plan a short trip to s destination that’s noted for significant snow fall AND condition fluctuations, a year ahead no less, is just asking for it.

It was only months not a year. But people have reasons and needs (important ones) to plan ahead in order to take family vacation. That's just fact of life for many people. To suggest someone "is asking for it" is simply rediculous. That's like saying the person deserves the blame for doing something so stupid and irresponsible. Booking telluride in advance and for March was far from irresponsible and actually a great choice for a number of reasons. Many of which were gone over in the thread, made a lot of sense, and was well thought out. And besides, imo no one who books any vacation for fun deserves a "your just asking for it" comment anyway no matter how careful or not or ignorant or not they may have been about booking it. .

Optimist, pessimist regardless which one someone is has nothing to do with how much snow Mother nature blesses a resort with for the season. That only dictates whether or not the person choses to make the most of it when/if they go. Being optimistic or pessimistic doesn't make it snow nor does either one mean you cant be concerned about it and even act upon it.