what's a good site or app for forecasting the weather ~2 weeks in advanced?

[onstar1]

I found the weathernow app to be accurate at predicting dry conditions up to 2 weeks in advanced. They are usually pretty accurate on that. What's not accurate is when there is snow in the forecast. The timing, location and amount is usually off.

 

[firebanex]

Snowfall predictions 2 weeks out? You are asking a lot for the crystal ball of weather models. it's not going to happen with the current models in existence.

 

[Started at 53]

Visit the local witch doctor?

 

[onstar1]

just saying that weatherapp is pretty good at predicting a dry spell and high pressure. But the opposite is true for predicting snow.

 

[neonorchid]

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/

 

[Primoz]

Visit the local witch doctor?

For 2 weeks in advance in places where snow would matter, I would say that's best possible and most accurate weather forecast you could get

 

[Mendieta]

I found the weathernow app to be accurate at predicting dry conditions up to 2 weeks in advanced. They are usually pretty accurate on that. What's not accurate is when there is snow in the forecast. The timing, location and amount is usually off.

I really like https://opensnow.com

Those of us in the Tahoe area always talk about the BA forecast. That's Brian Allegretto. He looks at different model runs and tries to make sense of the ensemble.

Sometimes we are lucky and get @Jellybeans1000 to post in our thread, too.

 

[Jim McDonald]

Shake the magic 8-ball!

 

[Coach13]

I like this topic but if there is a tool or app for weather that’s reliable weeks out it’s clear the weather folks haven’t discovered it.

My dad was always super hard on the weather folks. He used to say the only tool they could use accurately was a window!

 

[Novaloafah]

For 2 weeks in advance in places where snow would matter, I would say that's best possible and most accurate weather forecast you could get

Am a big fan of a lodestone and Ouija board combo.
Wx forecasting is all percentages(modelling or whatever) 2 weeks out. Pretty decent at pointing towards trends but not accurate for precip/winds that far out. I do find that forecasting from 4-5 days is good enough to get me excited until the day arrives and I am 50% ecstatic mixed with %50 crushed.

 

[HardDaysNight]

the day arrives and I am 50% ecstatic mixed with %50 crushed.

Anticipointment

 

[Seldomski]

Three day forecasts are pretty good for most locations. Much past that, and it goes from a forecast to a guess.

 

[coskigirl]

just saying that weatherapp is pretty good at predicting a dry spell and high pressure. But the opposite is true for predicting snow.

I would venture a guess that it's because they can clearly see when there is no moisture and energy to create precipitation but when there is some present in the air, the way in which those things interact are wildly unpredictable.

 

[graham418]

J2Ski is a site with a wildly optimistic view on life. 2 weeks out there is always yards of snow in the forecast, but it is constantly changing , so that by the time you are 3 days out, all the snow is gone from the forecast and your hopes and dreams are dashed once more.

 

[Sibhusky]

I haven't found a reliable forecast about snow for the day itself. They call for 3 inches, it could be a foot or sunny. It's the only job in the world where you they get paid in spite of being wrong most of the time.

And windows are really useless unless the window is in the exact spot you'e asking about. My husband said when I got home two days ago (we're two miles from the resort as the crow flies), "Were you skiing blind?". And I told him it was blue bird because of the inversion.

It's the mountains, everything is a microclimate.

 

[mister moose]

weather app = forecast crap.

Sure, sometimes the long term models predict an event, although the track of the event and the timing of the event and the size of the event change, sometimes wildly. Does that mean its accurate, because sometimes it forecasts a storm? Barely, in my book. It gives us something to be aware of to watch, that's about it.

Forecasts 8 hours out are useful.
Forecasts 24 hours out are a close approximation
Forecasts 48 hours out are decent indications
Forecasts 72 hours out are educated guesses
Forecasts 72+ hours out are I have a bridge to sell you, and you can see it right over there.

Also, many sources of weather don't really come from the location indicated, and are not for the altitude you're skiing at. Also, microclimes exist that never are on the forecast.

If you aren't weather skilled, find out what forecast(s) the (knowledgeable) locals use at the hill you are interested in, and even then pack a spare layer and sunglasses.

 

[Pdub]

Combination of

1. Single Chair Weather Blog (http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/)
2. National Weather Service 8-14 day outlook (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php)

But as others have said, there is no such thing as a reliable 2 week forecast.

Do not expect a two week forecast for your exact location. That's impossible. These two sites will paint a big picture from which you can draw your own half-baked conclusions.

 

[Decreed_It]

+1 for OPENsnow - especially (and only?) since wasatchsnowforecast moved there. For Utah, at least. Pretty good for other areas.

Bergfex was rec'd for Alps - seems good as well.

2 weeks out is general predictions but, like long range surf forecasting, you have to know who to trust - long term experienced forecasters with track record. WasatchSnowForecast is that person.

 

[Mendieta]

+1 for OPENsnow - especially (and only?) since wasatchsnowforecast moved there. For Utah, at least. Pretty good for other areas.

Bergfex was rec'd for Alps - seems good as well.

2 weeks out is general predictions but, like long range surf forecasting, you have to know who to trust - long term experienced forecasters with track record. WasatchSnowForecast is that person.

Exactly. No app will give you a highly accurate estimate 14 days out, and given the physics involved (with instabilities described by chaos theory in lower dimensional models, and turbulence in more complete models), there is always a limitation into how much things can progress as computational power grows.

Having said that, I invite @onstar1 (and anybody interested) to actually read entries in OpenSnow for their area. Or use a similar service. You'll see that the discussion is not black or white. Sometimes a dry pattern looks pretty stable in simulations and they are pretty confident 2 weeks out. Sometimes it's so unstable that different models give very different predictions, and nobody trusts the outcome more than a few days out. These folks are experts and give you a lot of color.

An app is only useful a few days out, most of the time. And sometimes not even that. It's not so much about the app, it's more about physical, real, atmospheric conditions.

My 2cts.

 

[moreoutdoorYuri]

as noted 14 day forecast is tough... and at best ballpark. Sometimes sudden shifts will make then go very awry.
However (also noted by another) NOAA/National Weather Service 7 day forecast is my 'go-to'. I find them to be the most 'accurate' by far. And, depending on how you 'search', you can get very pinpoint prediction data.
IE - Mammoth Mtn and Mammoth lakes, although separated by 2.5 miles mid-town to peak - the 'weather' is WAY different...
National Weather Service can give either/both and often it can rain in-town and snow at 9K ft and above...
Here's the current 'Mountain Forecast' at 9.8K ft:
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-119.03482470232073&lat=37.63220842193027#.XD4uxifQhhF
Here's Mammoth Lakes:
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=37.6488&lon=-118.9779#.XD40ESfQhhE
not a lot of difference right now - tonight, on the mtn at 9.8K ft : "10 to 14 inches possible" , in-town at 8K ft. : " 6 to 10 inches possible"
but sometimes, quite frequently the diffference is really dramatic.
They are very conservative on snow/precip estimates - 'Actual' measured is most often much greater than 'predicted' - A Great thing! LOL!

also, I use and recommend, especially for high altitude, longer term, mountaineering/backpacking (backcountry as well as frontcountry winter) - excellent also in 'summer'.
Great for Worldwide - long distance travel planning - and shows peaks often not on any other forecast model.
https://www.mountain-forecast.com
I needed info for a recent (april/May) trip into the Khumbu Peaks region of the Nepal Himalaya.
https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Ama-Dablam/forecasts/6856
On using this, it made me aware of unusual near 'Winter Conditions' expected in that region, during late apr & early May.
I 'prepared' for that and was one of the few prepared for the experienced 30F to 0F (-2 to -18 celsius) during those weeks...
AND - you get expected conditions shown by various altitudes, really great for high altitude prep!
Used a lot for my pack trips into the sierra, my yearly summer trip to the Austrian/Swiss Alps, etc... this becomes a great tool, even the Local Los Padres.