should I cancel florida trip this week?

[crgildart]

Yeah, I'm guessing a lot of people feel that they are somehow going to "save their house" if they are present. About the only instance I can think of where that might be true is if the siding starts to peel off and you go tack down the loose end with a staple gun. Pretty far-fetched, though.

Some of it is people who left in previous storms and returned to find that their stuff has been stolen. In the aftermath, it's a ghost town, no police patrolling, no other neighbors keeping watch. Thieves flock to storm zones in the aftermath of stuff like this. Folks just want to protect their property.. from lowlife people, not from God.

Yeah, I'm guessing a lot of people feel that they are somehow going to "save their house" if they are present. About the only instance I can think of where that might be true is if the siding starts to peel off and you go tack down the loose end with a staple gun. Pretty far-fetched, though.

Lots of older, not so healthy trees fell on power lines and a few houses and cars. No major flooding or tornado damage from what I could tell though.. We did OK here.. didn't even lose power but for a few seconds a couple times..

 

[locknload]

I think a lot of it is the need to feel in some scale of control over one's own fate - and leaving instead of 'fighting it out' goes against that emotion set. Not that sandbags and plywood are terribly effective in changing outcomes, but there it is.

I have a separate argument about how preserving beachfront property value is incentivising dangerous choices... but I'll leave that for another day.
View attachment 179517

"I have a separate argument about how preserving beachfront property value is incentivising dangerous choices... but I'll leave that for another day."

I think this really is the right question. Dont' want to clutter or hijack this thread but been thinking about this and talking with an employee who's lived in FL for 40 years. If you live there for awhile...the time will come when a hurricane will come to your neighborhood. Just seems like a high risk proposition.

 

[mdf]

"I have a separate argument about how preserving beachfront property value is incentivising dangerous choices... but I'll leave that for another day."

I think this really is the right question. Dont' want to clutter or hijack this thread but been thinking about this and talking with an employee who's lived in FL for 40 years. If you live there for awhile...the time will come when a hurricane will come to your neighborhood. Just seems like a high risk proposition.

The beach is probably hopeless, at least without giving up the whole point of living on the beach. But just a few miles inland, modern construction, buried utilities, and drainage (lots and lots of ponds for run-off to collect) can be survivable.

 

[Wendy]

I don't speak for this employee..but we have multiple in FL. Many rode it out without a problem but were in different zones. She could afford to leave if she wanted to. I've learned that these are personal decisions and it matters not at all what my opinion is because people will do what they want. Its always a gamble of whether the storm will take the track on the path its forecasted to take AND whether it will be as bad as forecasted. I couldn't live under that constant stress..but millions of people do. I dunno.

I do wish that it is impressed upon people who stay that the first responders and other rescuers who come in the aftermath face dangerous conditions and also are putting their lives at risk, at great additional cost. It's not just about the evacuee and their stuff.

The conditions on Sanibel Island in particular, because the causeway has collapsed, sound pretty horrible. Hot and humid, no power, water, or food, growing mold and mildew, standing water with oil, sewage and debris in it, and damaged boats and other debris in the harbor that makes navigation by boat in and out dangerous and for experienced folks only. And yes, looting, as food and water supplies run low and survivors are left to search for supplies anywhere they can find them. So not only is the experience of the storm awful and sometimes traumatizing, but so are its aftermaths, which last far beyond mere days. When people become frightened and desperate, behavior can be as unpredictable as the path of a hurricane.

Predicting the path of a hurricane has improved over the years, but they are still fickle. The widening "cone" that is presented as its path instead of a line is meant to show the probable paths and the decreasing power of prediction as time increases, but I also wonder how many people realize that when making their decisions.

 

[James]

I mean everyone knows what a tsunami is,

Do we?
The tsunami that wiped out Fukushima was like a wave/storm surge looking at the video. We seem to think of it just as a big wave.

Call it marejada, then they’ll be marejada mojito parties.

 

[locknload]

I do wish that it is impressed upon people who stay that the first responders and other rescuers who come in the aftermath face dangerous conditions and also are putting their lives at risk, at great additional cost. It's not just about the evacuee and their stuff.

The conditions on Sanibel Island in particular, because the causeway has collapsed, sound pretty horrible. Hot and humid, no power, water, or food, growing mold and mildew, standing water with oil, sewage and debris in it, and damaged boats and other debris in the harbor that makes navigation by boat in and out dangerous and for experienced folks only. And yes, looting, as food and water supplies run low and survivors are left to search for supplies anywhere they can find them. So not only is the experience of the storm awful and sometimes traumatizing, but so are its aftermaths, which last far beyond mere days. When people become frightened and desperate, behavior can be as unpredictable as the path of a hurricane.

Predicting the path of a hurricane has improved over the years, but they are still fickle. The widening "cone" that is presented as its path instead of a line is meant to show the probable paths and the decreasing power of prediction as time increases, but I also wonder how many people realize that when making their decisions.

Totally agree. Just reading about people hiking off of Ft Myers Island b/c its a war zone and they don't have power, water, sanitation or food supplies available. Some folks who stayed cited the experience of Irma in 2017 not being that big a deal and they figured this would be the same. They said they miscalculated. I mean honestly as long as banks loan money for mortgages and insurance companies provide homeowners insurance, people will keep building over and over and this cycle will repeat over and over. If you put humans in this situation repeatedly many will continue to "ride it out" despite the risks. I don't know the answer. I think you have to price the risk into the loan and insurance risk--particularly as you consider rebuilding. Many have stated they are "walking away" and leaving their condos and homes behind. I'm sure many have said that before and have followed through. New buyers came along behind them.

 

[Wendy]

Do we?
The tsunami that wiped out Fukushima was like a wave/storm surge looking at the video. We seem to think of it just as a big wave.

Call it marejada, then they’ll be marejada mojito parties.

IIRC, the adjective "deadly" preceded storm surge with Ian. That didn't seem to do the trick either.
Yeah, "marejada" might become a drink. "Hurricane" is a drink too.

But storm surges come in faster than even huge tides, at least they sure look like they do, because they are driven mostly by wind and not gravitational forces of the moon and sun.

I dunno, I suppose that after living there for a long time, people get complacent when storms are predicted and end up making landfall somewhere else.

 

[cantunamunch]

But just a few miles inland, modern construction, buried utilities, and drainage (lots and lots of ponds for run-off to collect) can be survivable.

On that note, Miami might get ~6 miles of seawall.

 

[Wendy]

On that note, Miami might get ~6 miles of seawall.

View attachment 179665

Nature constructed its own "seawalls." They are called barrier islands.

(But, I was educated as a geologist. That changes one's perspective of time and of place).

I was struck by the availability of hurricane shelters for Ian (at least from what the local FL station was broadcasting). They were numerous, all accepted pets, offered meals, and were readily available, and most weren't filled. I'm curious, because most people in now unlivable homes also have flooded cars, so they previously had a vehicle to drive to a shelter. Were the local roads to shelters so backed up that reaching a shelter in time was not possible?

I think that asking the question "why?" is valuable in helping to understand human behavior and how to prevent such tragedy from happening again. It's not disrespectful or insulting or passing judgment. It's trying to wrap one's mind around the situation to determine how better outcomes can be achieved next time.

 

[cantunamunch]

Nature constructed its own "seawalls." They are called barrier islands.

and the other pages on the CoE Shore Protection website make that eminently clear. But, even given market pressure to abandon construction on barrier islands and in coastal swamps, there are going to be areas that simply won't change.

I am using Miami as a prime example of a location that will not be allowed* to suffer a drop in population density anytime soon - and that certainly ought to have the most advanced hurricane measures available.

* I use 'allowed' to indicate both new buyers with ready wallets and government intervention to skew insurance markets.

 

[Wasatchman]

I mean honestly as long as banks loan money for mortgages and insurance companies provide homeowners insurance, people will keep building over and over and this cycle will repeat over and over. If you put humans in this situation repeatedly many will continue to "ride it out" despite the risks. I don't know the answer. I think you have to price the risk into the loan and insurance risk--particularly as you consider rebuilding. Many have stated they are "walking away" and leaving their condos and homes behind. I'm sure many have said that before and have followed through. New buyers came along behind them.

I hear what you are saying but it is a difficult one. Most of Florida's economy is coastal. Is the country willing to effectively walk away from that? Much of the West's population centers are simply unsustainable if the lower water trends over the last 20 years persists. There are no easy answers, especially when we can't even agree yet as a country whether climate change is real.

 

[cantunamunch]

I hear what you are saying but it is a difficult one. Most of Florida's economy is coastal. Is the country willing to effectively walk away from that? Much of the West's population centers are simply unsustainable if the lower water trends over the last 20 years persists. There are no easy answers, especially when we can't even agree yet as a country whether climate change is real.

There is just no way to make a grid of Manhattan-density hurricane-proofed highrise nests, with nothing but transportation network and farms and swamps in between, sound attractive to anyone. Pretty much the entire coastline would have to become protected parkland.

 

[Living Proof]

Nature constructed its own "seawalls." They are called barrier islands.

The remnants of Ian still plague my So. Jersey barrier island. High tide just passed, on the bay side roads flooding was 18 inches or so. Cars are flooded, I would not attempt to leave the island. An interesting aspect of barrier islands is the ocean side is always higher than the back bays. When I purchased my property many years ago, the agent stressed it was in the highest part of the island. At that time, flood height did not mean much, times have changed.

 

[James]

Sink all the decommissioned Navy ships off of Miami! Pour concrete and rocks in between.

There is just no way to make a grid of Manhattan-density hurricane-proofed highrise nests, with nothing but transportation network and farms and swamps in between

Well, there is…

Just add swamps, and gators, water ways, a beach.

Ville Radieuse: Le Corbusier's Functionalist Plan for a Utopian "Radiant City" - 99% Invisible

Designed in the 1920s by Le Corbusier, one of Modernism’s most influential architects, the “Radiant City” was to be a linear and ordered metropolis of the future. It was ambitious, a blueprint not only for a more rational urban environment but also for radical social reform. The layout of...

99percentinvisible.org

(That was a great podcast show, one of the early ones. Forgot about him.)

 

[Wasatchman]

Sink all the decommissioned Navy ships off of Miami! Pour concrete and rocks in between.



Well, there is…

Just add swamps, and gators, water ways, a beach.
View attachment 179668

Ville Radieuse: Le Corbusier's Functionalist Plan for a Utopian "Radiant City" - 99% Invisible

Designed in the 1920s by Le Corbusier, one of Modernism’s most influential architects, the “Radiant City” was to be a linear and ordered metropolis of the future. It was ambitious, a blueprint not only for a more rational urban environment but also for radical social reform. The layout of...

99percentinvisible.org

(That was a great podcast show, one of the early ones. Forgot about him.)

Goes to show you that one man's utopia is another man's hell. Wowsers

 

[cantunamunch]

Sink all the decommissioned Navy ships off of Miami! Pour concrete and rocks in between.



Well, there is…

Ok, I'll amend my previous, thus:

, sound attractive to anyone, except maybe the french who have already colonised their ski villages with concrete hives.

The Sixties brutalist ski towns of France

Revisiting Avoriaz and Flaine, Toby Skinner finds the elevated architectural approach to these once-derided resorts was way ahead of its time.

www.cntraveller.com

Just add swamps, and gators, water ways, a beach.

And a TGV from the hives to the beaches once every 10 minutes, complete with onboard showers for getting sand out of the shortsSpeedos. Sure, let's jump on that

Goes to show you that one man's utopia is another man's hell. Wowsers

Hey, in 50 years maybe Atlantic City will have been 'ahead of its time'

 

[James]

Ok, I'll amend my previous, thus: …except maybe the french who have already colonised their ski villages with concrete hives.

You’re really shirking the Soviet contribution. Plus China.

Those are the interesting ones too.

Above the Arctic Circle.

 

[locknload]

I hear what you are saying but it is a difficult one. Most of Florida's economy is coastal. Is the country willing to effectively walk away from that? Much of the West's population centers are simply unsustainable if the lower water trends over the last 20 years persists. There are no easy answers, especially when we can't even agree yet as a country whether climate change is real.

Of course its difficult and that's why it won't happen. I know I am going to use the "avoidance" strategy and never buy a property in a hurricane zone and simply VRBO if/when I want to spend time there. I live in coastal CA and have our own earthquake, mudslide and fire issues but not quite as much in the coastal zone. Its very expensive to build here for a lot of reasons (many of them environmental and the cost of permitting and construction) and there is also a strong aversion to high-rise buildings and virtually no ability to get a variance (which does lead to low supply of units and drives up cost). We also have one of four de-salination plants in our area which are an effort to continue try and address what is clearly a long-term water issue. However, as long as we are watering pistachios in the desert as well as golf courses, our water issues are going to persist. There is definitely no easy answer. It certainly is worth asking questions though.

 

[jmeb]

(But, I was educated as a geologist. That changes one's perspective of time and of place).

I think the perspective on time is a really hard one when we're changing the world rapidly -- its hard to fathom how climatological things may change in the next 50-100 years when they historically have not. That is, the time-horizons of our institutions from financing to life planning aren't built to think about climate shift.

Ian is a really hard one to process. This area hasn't been hit like this for as long as anyone living there has memory of. I went the middle and high school in Ft Myers. My home was 20mi inland up river right off McGregor towards the river. It was under 5-6ft of water. Homes that have stood for 80+ years around there that have never seen something like this.

That's a lifetime. Telling folks not to rebuild because once-in-a-lifetime events may now happen several-times-a-lifetime is just a hard psychological thing to break through when people are forced into crisis-mode decision making. Its why we need broader, structural federally led programs to reliable push people away from areas that are going to be continually decimated by climate. Not individual, life-time and life-course based decision making.

Can't say how glad I am my father moved to Asheville a few years back. And how sorry/hurt/grieving I am for my friends that grew up there and haven't had the life opportunities to live elsewhere whose lives were just permanently altered.

 

[Jerez]

Um. A lot of the issues raised about insurance, rebuilding in danger zones and failure to evacuate quickly can be applied to fire zones too. And yet, we seemed determined to live in drought prone forested mountains too...