California/Nevada Mammoth Intel Needed

[mdf]

The Bureau of Transportation Statistics keeps delay/cancellation statistics. That's how I convinced flying DFW to Aspen was a reasonable choice (DEN to Aspen is cancelled a lot more, I think for someone disingenuous reasons).

So go in here and poke around till you get the stats you need:
https://www.transtats.bts.gov/OT_Delay/ot_delaycause1.asp?type=1&pn=1

 

[Pat AKA mustski]

If you look just at March for each year, you can see the approximate average. 2016 shows a 30% cancellation rate but that was a crazy big season! Otherwise it looks like 16 -20% average.

 

[TonyPlush]

If you look just at March for each year, you can see the approximate average. 2016 shows a 30% cancellation rate but that was a crazy big season! Otherwise it looks like 16 -20% average.

What! That’s crazy!!

Pardon my shock but that means on a round trip flight you’re looking at nearly a 50/50 chance that one of your legs is cancelled. I guess only the first leg really matters, but still... that seems like day 1 suicide.

 

[dbostedo]

What! That’s crazy!!

Pardon my shock but that means on a round trip flight you’re looking at nearly a 50/50 chance that one of your legs is cancelled. I guess only the first leg really matters, but still... that seems like day 1 suicide.

Well yeah... for a bad year with a 30% cancellation rate. But if it's only a 20% cancellation rate, and you take two flights, the odds that one of them is cancelled is only 36%!

 

[dbostedo]

That's how I convinced flying DFW to Aspen was a reasonable choice (DEN to Aspen is cancelled a lot more, I think for someone disingenuous reasons).

Do you know where you can find stats for one airport, coming from another specific airport?

 

[mdf]

Do you know where you can find stats for one airport, coming from another specific airport?

Don't remember for sure, but I think I found stats per airline. In my case that was sufficient since they flew different routes.

 

[mdf]

just remembered seeng a "raw data" button when i grabbed the screenshot. that is the engineering solution, after a;ll.

 

[Pat AKA mustski]

I would guess that larger planes have a better chance of landing in high winds. The wind factor is probably the cause of most delays/cancellation in and out of Mammoth.
2 year ago, a friend of mine was watching daily because it was pretty stormy. The mountain was closed one day but the airport was closed for 2 days. She was able to keep her room in the Westin for one more night. We were staying a day longer than that so she could have always stayed with us. But yeah ... if it's the incoming flight that's cancelled. . If you fly into either Reno or LA, you can always grab a rental car if your flight is cancelled and just drive the rest of the way.

Truthfully, I stopped flying because it takes me nearly as long as driving. By the time I do the get to the airport in Los Angeles - 2 hrs drive, and wait to board for 2 hrs, then add on the wait for the luggage and then the shuttle ... it's pretty much the same as driving - 6 hrs.

 

[mdf]

Do you know where you can find stats for one airport, coming from another specific airport?

just remembered seeng a "raw data" button when i grabbed the screenshot. that is the engineering solution, after a;ll.

Yep, just gave it a spin. You get data by month, carrier, and arrival airport in a CSV file. Does not include departure airport.

 

[river-z]

Related, though a little off topic from the discussion about flights ... I was surprised to find out from google maps that the distance from LAX to Mammoth (313 miles) is less(!) than the distance to Mammoth from the airport in Las Vegas (319 miles). And though it can be a pain to get out of LA, the whole road basically divided highway, which I doubt is true of the way from Las Vegas.

Personally, I enjoy most of the drive.

 

[Nathanvg]

I ran the stats for the winter months for all ski airport in the US. The conclusion: mammoth is the worst airport to fly into. Sun valley is really bad too and aspen is a little better but still rough. All three airports are way worse than the rest.

Full details at: https://www.pugski.com/threads/airports-to-avoid.16423/

I wouldn't fly to mammoth. RNO and LAS are the best options. LAX is ok too but traffic is a killer.

 

[TonyPlush]

Well, after all that, the 5.5 hour drive from Vegas + 6 hours of airport time was enough to scare my group away.

Looks like we'll be skiing Utah that week instead...

Thanks anyway for all the fantastic info everyone. This thread definitely has me adding Mammoth to the bucket list. And hopefully we can make it out there next year with a smaller, less travel averse group.