Haven't they used that language for every new partner, including Telluride and RCR? How long do you think these places are actually locked into the Epic Pass?
I think it varies. I think the deals vary.
Here's how I look at this. Vail, until Telluride, has been very vocal about owning and controlling the assets, and NOT doing these types of pass partnerships as a preferred thing. Necessary, probably. Preferred, no.
Consider that you have Triple Peaks, which operates three VERY different area/resorts. I think the Muellers have a pretty strong reputation as operators. I have NO IDEA what their leases on CB and Okemo look like. If they are anything like CNL agreed to with Boyne {and I suspect they are} they are of real value. Och-Ziff, the hedge fund owns the hard assets, having bought the CNL portfolio as the clock ticked down on their need to liquidate, and insistence that they sell the entire deal.
Since that deal, there has been a lot of speculation that O-Z bought it to then break it up and sell it off. The sum up the parts worth 25% or more than the whole. We've just seen them see the seven properties back to Boyne. So, I think it's fair to presume that they are ALL for sale, or in play.
Now, a "hook" in the process that's been discussed a bit, since O-Z first made this move {it's HIGHLY unusual investment for a $50Billiom hedge fund}, is that the Ziff brothers and Och all are Aspen home owners {I think one of the Ziff brothers owns something like three homes}, and "legit" life long skiers. One speculation is that they make this move to make some money for their investors, but to also end up with the one property they wanted to own in the end.....Crested Butte.
If they end up with it, they could keep the Muellers as operators. They could buy out the lease, at who knows what cost. It would not be cheap. If O-Z sells it to anybody else, they need to honor the Muellers' lease or buy it out. Gets sticky.
So how does VR fit in? Does VR want to buy it? If that is the intimate game plan, they need to deal with the lease. If Och and the Ziffs buy it personally from O-Z, do the Muellers stay? Would Vail ever operate it? Doubt it. Would the Muellers buy it back?
Back East, they operate Sunapee, which is largely a day trip or weekend area in NH. Gets good traffic. 250K or so skier days. The "problem" is that it's owned by the state. it gets real sticky as local state reps debate why the state has outsourced the operation of this to "some group that is partners with a $50Billion hedge fund." It's increasingly not passing the sniff test. Peak has invest money into the place {which is always confusing as they do no own it.....}. Could well be that they are no longer there for long.
Okemo would seem to fit hand in glove with MTN. It's 750K skiers a year. Extensive and recent base development. Groomer's heaven. They draw for weekend home owners in the Metro NYC area up through CT, MA, and mid-state NY. I have never seen hard data, but based on the families that I know who own there, and spend most weekend there, the demographic is exceptionally attractive. These are no tight non-spending "Yankees." These people spend. I have to imagine that if Vail could ever buy it, owning both Okemo and Stowe in VT would be a really nice pairing. Just a hunch.
The Muellers have been at this for a long time, and know the business. They may also see the handwriting on the wall. Assuing that Sunapee will not last forever, I think they need to make some chess moves. Do they sell the Okemo and CB leases? Do they buy either? One theory I have heard is get out of CB and buy Jay Peak and Burke. Sell Burke to a group connected with BMA. Or do they sell the lease at Okemo.....to Vail who simultaneously buys the hard assets from O-Z?
Just saying.......I think there is a lot in play here. I keep hearing that two or three groups want to buy CB, and until a week ago, the name Vail was never among them. At all. I'm not convinced that the interest has waned on any of the others. I also feel that the soul and feel of CB changes significantly less with the others. I just don't see that with MTN. I'm not a "Vail sucks" guy, and militant. But I don't see a fit there, at all. I hope this is a co-marketing deal with the pass, and no more. And that maybe it will be short lived.
I have a daughter who lives in CO and works in the business. My son and his GF lived there until a year ago, and also work in the business. They love CB, as do my wife and I. I've skied there for 30+ years. I just don't see Vail Resorts bringing anything positive to the table. This is one that needs to retain it's own soul, community, skiing, everything.
They have had a brutal season, so that may have lead to entertaining pass deals. I'm trying to get a handle on how some of these deals are structured, detail wise.
