Great analysis. I also note that Kirkwood itself has easy access and a giant lake. I think in a worst case scenario, Kwood would stand a good fighting chance.View attachment 140344
Google Earth image shows why Kirkwood is obviously naturally well protected from most wildfires due to large expanses of surrounding glaciated granite landscapes with very limited zones of dense trees. Also a reason wildfires despite frequent small lightning fires are not much a danger to much of the High Sierra we backpackers visit south of the Emigrant Basin Yosemite region. Note north facing Kirkwood itself is covered by volcanic geology with a mature sparse timberline forest. The orange arrow shows the one route a fire could take. The Caldor fire is off the image at lower left corner and moving off the the left of the map by winds that for what that's worth, are not forecast to change over the next week.
Current wind trends have it headed mol directly toward Sierra, which, fortunately, is twice as far away. And currently the spread is relatively slow.