Will ski areas be open in 2021 --partially--fully--or maybe not really

[Cantankerous]

Hello--All;

I hope you are all well and safe during this difficult time.

As you all know-- there's been a lot of talk about how and when we'll open the country back up; when will we send children back to school, attend sporting events and so on..

I've checked the online universe and have been surprised that I haven't seen much discussion on the upcoming 2021 ski season--I know it early and there's a lot of unknowns-but does any one have any thoughts or first hand insigt into the thinking in the industry about next year--in the face of this crisis. If you want to talk about crowded--think about the cafeteria lunch line at just about any resort on just about any day. I did see that the Sundance Film festival, held in January in Park City, is already discussing alternate arrangements--scary stuff. Any thoughts..

 

[dovski]

My feeling is that it is not a question of if the resorts will re-open but more a question of how will they modify operations and will people still travel to ski?

We are thinking about booking some ski trips but only if they are 100% refundable. Normally we do a couple trips to Canada each year, but we are not sure if the self quarantine restrictions will be lifted, so holding off on booking those trips.

We have several friends who have decided not to get Epic and Ikon passes simply because they are not comfortable with the idea of traveling the way they used to.

The other factor is the economy. Skiing is a luxury and an expensive one at that, with so many out of work or furloughed plus the down stock market consumer spending will take a hit and luxury goods and activities will be the first to go.

 

[martyg]

The industry is flying totally blind. The overall response of everyone is, “We don’t have a roadmap for this.” However, there are immunologist who work on the world stage, tracking pathogens and advising multi-national corporations on how to maintain employee health and productivity. Industry groups could tap into that expertise to help them establish best practices. Even if the fee was seven-figures, it would be well worth it.

I think that the economy will factor into i it, for those who save all year, or go into debt all year, for a ski vacation. For those who payed attention, they will likely see an uptick in wealth by winter.

My guess is that refund policies will be extremely liberal. Resorts will have to cater to the uncertainty. If they don’t, bookings will suffer.

 

[Erik Timmerman]

My prediction - fully open.

 

[chopchop]

The industry is flying totally blind. The overall response of everyone is, “We don’t have a roadmap for this.” However, there are immunologist who work on the world stage, tracking pathogens and advising multi-national corporations on how to maintain employee health and productivity. Industry groups could tap into that expertise to help them establish best practices. Even if the fee was seven-figures, it would be well worth it.

I think that the economy will factor into i it, for those who save all year, or go into debt all year, for a ski vacation. For those who payed attention, they will likely see an uptick in wealth by winter.

My guess is that refund policies will be extremely liberal. Resorts will have to cater to the uncertainty. If they don’t, bookings will suffer.

@martyg - Your profile says "Industry Insider". What's your role?

 

[Plai]

My prediction, mostly open with physical distancing in lift lines and chair lifts with your own party.
I can't imagine sharing a gondola ride, even only with just those in my party.

Can't imagine how ski patrol will handle the injured.
Maybe I'll start brown bagging lunches.

Edit: PS masks will be mandatory indoors and out.

 

[martyg]

@martyg - Your profile says "Industry Insider". What's your role?

Retired squeaky wheel. Retired slicer and diver of data. Current: Service Animal to my Canine. Ski Bum.

 

[Ski&ride]

thoughts

premature?

first hand insigt

Nope

I’m not as pessimistic as many here. I think it will be fully open.

I just can’t see this social distancing gig can last for more than a few months. People will get fatigue and will relax their guard.

Also, I think once we “flatten the curve”, death rate will come down, even for people with underlying medical conditions.

But people will be more tuned in to the danger of close proximity. So likely avoiding gondolas, and even crowd lodges.

However, if the virus flares up again in winter. All bets will be off!

Though somehow I don’t think that will be the case.

 

[martyg]

premature?


Nope

I’m not as pessimistic as many here. I think it will be fully open.

I just can’t see this social distancing gig can last for more than a few months. People will get fatigue and will relax their guard.

Also, I think once we “flatten the curve”, death rate will come down, even for people with underlying medical conditions.

But people will be more tuned in to the danger of close proximity. So likely avoiding gondolas, and even crowd lodges.

However, if the virus flares up again in winter. All bets will be off!

Though somehow I don’t think that will be the case.

Bingo. Second to last sentence. And it won’t take until the winter for numbers to climb if social distancing is relaxed the first of June, unless it is done in an extremely intelligent fashion. And with out widespread testing, without metrics, without a reliable and granular Source Of The Truth, that is not reliably possible.

 

[Ski&ride]

Bingo. Second to last sentence. And it won’t take until the winter for numbers to climb if social distancing is relaxed the first of June, unless it is done in an extremely intelligent fashion. And with out widespread testing, without metrics, without a reliable and granular Source Of The Truth, that is not reliably possible.

I have a different take on this.

It doesn’t look like the virus is subsiding in the summer months. So... it’s not going to “flare up” in the winter like flu. It’s likely to be a continuation of the situation in the summer, and fall. So people would have gotten used to whatever forms of social distancing and continue on.

That’s why I think the “all bets are off” isn’t very likely.

One thing I think is highly likely, is people maybe very reluctant to get on a plane. That would change the visit pattern a big way.

 

[neonorchid]

premature?


Nope

I’m not as pessimistic as many here. I think it will be fully open.

I just can’t see this social distancing gig can last for more than a few months. People will get fatigue and will relax their guard.

Also, I think once we “flatten the curve”, death rate will come down, even for people with underlying medical conditions.

But people will be more tuned in to the danger of close proximity. So likely avoiding gondolas, and even crowd lodges.

However, if the virus flares up again in winter. All bets will be off!

Though somehow I don’t think that will be the case.

Last I heard in Asia, Hong Kong, Singapore and... "relaxed their guard" and are now looking at round two, predicted to be worse than the first!

Countries in Asia are facing new waves of coronavirus infections after lockdowns lift. The same could happen in the rest of the world.

Lift lockdown, get a new wave of cases, shut down again: "What happened in Wuhan could happen repeatedly to a city," one epidemiologist said.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[scott43]

I think we'll have waves of more lockdown, less lockdown, more lockdown etc for months. So fully open? Maybe at times..maybe not. Maybe some areas will have no activity and will be open..then somebody shows up, tests positive and they lockdown until they figure it out. Probably the borders will open up more to air travel so it will be impossible to entirely remove the threat. So yeah, probably some openings..but could be closed at any time.

 

[CascadeConcrete]

This isn't going to go away quickly. The media is still talking about the virus being seasonal, but I've seen a number of credible sources point out that it spread in Thailand, Singapore, HK, and other areas that are quite warm so the northern hemisphere summer likely won't change much. My understanding is that the best case scenario involves going through rounds of isolation, followed by limited opening, then back to isolation and repeating this cycle until we either have a vaccine or reach the herd immunity threshold. As we go through more rounds, we will gain experience, have time to build up more medical capacity, and more people will be immune so we may be able to open up a little further each time. But this isn't just going to suddenly disappear. People who talk about how things will go back to normal after we "flatten the curve" don't seem to grasp that a flattened curve is only a temporary state and only lasts so long as we are willing to continue taking measures to keep it flat. The end game here is hopefully the vaccine and that's at least 1.5 years away. If anything slows down the vaccine or we end up needing to wait for full herd immunity, it'll be longer

That all said, I expect next ski season to be very noticeably colored by the virus situation. With any luck, we won't be on complete lockdown the entire season. In fact I don't think the populace and the economy will allow for a lockdown of that length. But I do expect that we will have restrictions (perhaps no non-open-air lifts, restrictions on lodge capacity, etc) on the ski industry. We may have full lockdowns for some portions of the ski season but not the entire thing. I expect travel in general to continue to be way down and international travel to be difficult, if not impossible. The ski industry will likely need to be very lenient with cancellations and changes much like airlines are doing right now. Much of the above will challenge some pretty fundamental tenets of ski industry business models, and we could probably have an entire thread on the industry impact alone.

These are interesting times and I have a feeling we're in for a bumpy ride next year. I'd love nothing more than to be wrong, but I will be very surprised if it's business as usual.

 

[Pat AKA mustski]

My prediction - fully open.

I agree. However, there will be operational differences - possibly even limits on the number of skiers/day at the resort. I also think there will be much less travel and more frequenting of resorts close to home with brownbagging and avoidance of crowd situations.

 

[Bad Bob]

Anticipate more people skiing on a more regional basis in the 20-21 season, and playing in their own region. Curtailed travel by mass transits. Like everyone else on here don't believe this is just going to go away peacefully. Also suspect that those who do travel to ski will be looking for more 2nd and 3rd tier areas that don't see the big crowds. We will ski, the question is where.

 

[graham418]

Lift lines are going to be really long if we have to maintain our 2m spacing and ride the chairs by ourselves

 

[Ski&ride]

Lift lines are going to be really long if we have to maintain our 2m spacing and ride the chairs by ourselves

It’s not an “if”.

The lift line WAS LONG.

So was the line for bathroom too.

 

[Andy Mink]

Assuming some sort of opening it will be interesting to see how the areas that have been pushing hard for public transit like the ones in BCC and LCC will respond. No one will want to be on a shuttle with a load of other unknowns.

I could see all trams/gondolas closed. That would really hurt places like Squaw where the gondola is the main way to get up the hill. Same with somewhere like JH. Not sure about bubble packs like the ones at Big Sky. Maybe run them with the bubble up only.

 

[Bad Bob]

Lift lines are going to be really long if we have to maintain our 2m spacing and ride the chairs by ourselves

My home area was one of the last to close. They instituted the policy of,' ride the lift with who you drove with'. That worked pretty well. If you think about 6 6 social distancing 2 people on a quad would actually be pretty close. Same could be said for tip to tail for in the line.
Suspect you will still see a reduction in skier days, that areas won't like much, but open. Could well see more 5 day a week schedules at the local hills to help compensate for the cost vs. revenue issues.

I,m real currious how they will handle food services?

 

[tromano]

My feeling is that it is not a question of if the resorts will re-open but more a question of how will they modify operations and will people still travel to ski?

We are thinking about booking some ski trips but only if they are 100% refundable. Normally we do a couple trips to Canada each year, but we are not sure if the self quarantine restrictions will be lifted, so holding off on booking those trips.

We have several friends who have decided not to get Epic and Ikon passes simply because they are not comfortable with the idea of traveling the way they used to.

The other factor is the economy. Skiing is a luxury and an expensive one at that, with so many out of work or furloughed plus the down stock market consumer spending will take a hit and luxury goods and activities will be the first to go.

Pretty much this. No one knows what's going to happen with the virus. But we know it will be a lost season with skier visits tanking, travel curtailed, and retail sales down due simply to the economic impacts.