Who, if anyone, accurately predicted the 2019-2020 ski season weather?

[Tricia]

BA has an interesting article about the accuracy of the weather predictions last season.

Did Anyone Accurately Predict the 2019-20 Winter Season? | OpenSnow

Each August, as we start hearing outlooks for the upcoming winter season, I always find it amusing to go back and look at...

opensnow.com

This fun fact from the article made me chuckle a bit:
When I first started forecasting I remember being taught, "the forecast models lose 10% of their accuracy for each day they forecast out into the future". That would mean 0% accuracy beyond 10 days!

 

[cantunamunch]

This fun fact from the article made me chuckle a bit:
When I first started forecasting I remember being taught, "the forecast models lose 10% of their accuracy for each day they forecast out into the future".

It's doubly funny when we realise that 90% ten times is actually 34.8% - better than 1 in 3.

 

[Tricia]

It's doubly funny when we realise that 90% ten times is actually 34.8% - better than 1 in 3.

That makes my hair hurt.

 

[Bad Bob]

After March, who cared?

Looking back from May was pretty accurate.

 

[neonorchid]

-

This fun fact from the article made me chuckle a bit:
When I first started forecasting I remember being taught, "the forecast models lose 10% of their accuracy for each day they forecast out into the future". That would mean 0% accuracy beyond 10 days!

Forget 24hour 10%, every time I checked OpenSnow's snow cast for resorts in the NE, they were dead wrong up to the day of the forecast, 100% wrong.

 

[cantunamunch]

After March, who cared?

Looking back from May was pretty accurate.

That's exactly the problem - the retrospective overall average can be accurate with a few major storms, even when in any given 10-day, 15-day, 30-day cycle the "forecast" is completely useless.

Put another way, these things really shouldn't be evaluated on season-long averages (which the article is attempting to do). They should be evaluated on how much deviation any given 2-3 week cycle incurs from the predicted values. Much more useful, East or West.

Pretty much the only people interested in season long average accuracy are going to be firefighters and water control boards.

 

[Andy Mink]

I was pretty accurate, minus the dry spell in early 2020. We got hammered in March with enough snow to carry through April into at least early May with proper snow management. Yep, I missed my calling. Or not.

 

[slowrider]

 

[neonorchid]

9/10/19 2019 - 2020 Winter Forecastasy




9/11/20 2020 - 2021 Snow Forecastasy




Forecastasy a horrorscope unfortunate cookie writer would be proud of;\

 

[dbostedo]

That makes my hair hurt.

Think of it this way. If you start with 100 and reduce by 10% you now have 90. If you the reduce 90 by 10% you have 81.

Now reduce 81 by 10% and you've got 72.9. Do that 7 more times and you get 34.86784401.

 

[oldschoolskier]

Based on how mother nature has been messing with us (COVID, natural disasters and extreme weather) I’m going with an extremely hard winter or extremely soft winter, like in the areas that it is opposite to what’s required.

 

[neonorchid]

Based on how mother nature has been messing with us (COVID, natural disasters and extreme weather) I’m going with an extremely hard winter or extremely soft winter, like in the areas that it is opposite to what’s required.

D@ng Direct Weather hacks set the Jinx

 

[neonorchid]

 

[Henry]

I can forecast the weather with 100% accuracy.


When I go skiing the snow stops.

 

[James]

Well at least in the Northeast, it looked like Spring was going to be a bust last year. Sat March 14th was a really sunny, nice day. We started wodering how we’d make it another month. It looked like no way. That evening everything closed.

Ironically, it got cold again and we could have gone into May. I even hiked and patched skied on May 17th. A week earlier I could’ve done it continuously till pretty far down.

 

[Ken_R]

This guy nails it:

 

[Jellybeans1000]

Just putting in my own thoughts on the seasonal forecast

longrangesnowcenter.net

This domain may be for sale!

longrangesnowcenter.net

1. We see a better than average season for the PNW/BC in terms of snowfall, including into the Northern Rockies (MT, ID, WY)
2. We see an average or slightly above average winter for Utah and Colorado.
3. We see a below average season for the Sierra Nevada (CA).
4. A strong season for the Midwest and Northern US.
5. A mildly above average season for New England.
6. An average snowfall season for the Mid Atlantic to NYC.
7. A below average snowfall season for the Southern half of the US.