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The Age of Avalanche Victims is Increasing

Mike King

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The question is why? There are several theories, all of which are interesting -- and potentially important to other situations as well. Read the article from the Colorado Sun, and consider subscribing!

 

Mike Rogers

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40 is the new 30, right?

I agree with the hypothesis that parents take less risk. They also generally have less time to backcountry ski.

It seems like more young people are waiting to settling down and starting a family. Many are choosing to not have children. This is especially noticeable among young professionals...and they seem to make up a important segment of the backcountry skier demographic.

I am not sure why there is a decrease in fatalities among skiers in their 20s (a good thing!), but recent avalanche instruction probably helps.
 

James

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No answers in that article. It was all over the map.
I find it hard to believe a 22yr old male is a less dangerous i bc ski partner than a 44yr old female. There was little evidence in the article to support that.
 

Doug Briggs

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I have not given much thought to having kids as a risk factor. Makes sense, though. Would I be racing DH if I had young'uns reliant on me?
 

Doug Briggs

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Depends. Plenty do. Plenty don't. McConkey had a kid.
One of my best racing buddies has two kids, one about to go to college and he only stopped chacing DHs and racing in general a couple years ago.
 

Analisa

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Erich Peitzsch was the main author on the paper and gave a really interesting talk that was captured by Snowbrains. He also mentioned that the average age of professionals in fatalities has increased as well. @James - he walks through the statistics and models in his talk and it checks out to statistical significance.

Right now, the rationale is all hypothetical. I think millennial finances definitely play a role in when people are able to invest in a setup. Likewise, I feel like AIARE curriculum has only recently changed from a "check the box on your avy course" approach to one that emphasizes the importance of refreshers and that people who have years of accident-free touring become susceptible to confirmation bias that they're playing it safe.

The one silver lining? I have been bothered for years by Jerry Isaak's "academic papers" that suggest social media usage leads to poor decision making skills, which really doesn't hold muster when you look at the rising age of victims or the fatality rate in the years subsequent to major social platform launches or after smartphones hit the market where apps drastically increased usage. His theories keep getting regurgitated in the popular press and the quantitative psych student in me just goes batshit crazy over it.
 

crgildart

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I saw a talk show segment this morning talking about a new book by someone with data suggesting that the new mid life crisis isn't buying a Corvette, it's going all in on fitness and activities. BC hiking and skiing seems to be the type of activity they claim older people are doing more of.
 

James

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I saw a talk show segment this morning talking about a new book by someone with data suggesting that the new mid life crisis isn't buying a Corvette, it's going all in on fitness and activities. BC hiking and skiing seems to be the type of activity they claim older people are doing more of.
Going to Antarctica?
Know someone who went to Big Sky in early Dec. Trip planned for Antarctica mid Jan. Fractures her leg last day at BS. Going to Antarctica anyway with the brace, prob can take it off by the time she gets there.
 
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SkiNurse

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The question is why? There are several theories, all of which are interesting -- and potentially important to other situations as well. Read the article from the Colorado Sun, and consider subscribing!

I have recently unsubscribed to the Denver Post and subscribed to the Colorado Sun.
 

James

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Erich Peitzsch was the main author on the paper and gave a really interesting talk that was captured by Snowbrains. He also mentioned that the average age of professionals in fatalities has increased as well. @James - he walks through the statistics and models in his talk and it checks out to statistical significance.
My comments were about the journalists article. I don't doubt the increading avg age of deaths.
But, it is stretch to jump and say one is safer with the 22yr old male.

I have recently unsubscribed to the Denver Post and subscribed to the Colorado Sun.
So, now I'm safer with you? ogsmile
Only if you get a printed paper delivered!
 

Analisa

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My comments were about the journalists article. I don't doubt the increading avg age of deaths.
But, it is stretch to jump and say one is safer with the 22yr old male.

Good point - especially when the article is about victims of fatalities, not the people in their party. It doesn't matter how old your partners are, you'll always be your age. Suggesting that it impacts your overall group safety is an extrapolation that's not supported by the data analysis completed in the study.
 

James

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I'm curious if "young" females are now similar to "young" males in their bone headed stunts, risk taking, however one phrases it. Surely things have changed?
The types of risks might be different, don't know. Difficult to say how.
In an urban environment, some young females can be shockingly clueless.
 

fatbob

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I saw a talk show segment this morning talking about a new book by someone with data suggesting that the new mid life crisis isn't buying a Corvette, it's going all in on fitness and activities. BC hiking and skiing seems to be the type of activity they claim older people are doing more of.

That's been true in the UK for a while with carbon exotica bikes and Rapha kit being talked about by greying men rather than the Porsches of old. And the only young blonde who turns their head is the first beer after the marathon/ironman they've trained for.
 

Lauren

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Interesting article, but I think there's a huge hole in the information they are providing that may tell a different theory as to "why". They did touch upon the fact that it's really difficult to get accurate data on how many people are actually entering the backcountry. But I think this information is vital to telling the story of why the average fatality age is increasing. If there are a growing number of 30-39 year olds, but a less drastic climb in 20-29 year olds, then the numbers might even out "per capita".

My husband and I always joke that the natural progression for professional snowboarders is to compete in halfpipe or slopestyle competitions until you reach about 25, have a few "awkward" years, then progress to big mountain terrain in your 30s (Travis Rice, Danny Davis, Elena Hight, Nick Russell...just to name a few). Skiing is a bit different because racing is so big. Racers will tend to enjoy groomers, speed and don't mind the icy slopes (with the right tools)...there is less inclination to get out into the backcountry and jump into the freeriding atmosphere. While racing is alive and well, there are a lot more young people getting into skiing halfpipe and slopestyle...this translates to later years moving into freeride terrain, on a similar path snowboarders tend to take.

This theory doesn't only translate to professionals, but trickles down to recreational skiers and snowboarders. Now, if the data were to show that the number of older people in backcountry terrain is not growing faster than youngins...you can consider this post debunked and just a ramble.
 

cantunamunch

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That's been true in the UK for a while with carbon exotica bikes and Rapha kit being talked about by greying men rather than the Porsches of old. And the only young blonde who turns their head is the first beer after the marathon/ironman they've trained for.

I'm betting that first there was a media obsession shift away from Porsches onto fitness, bikes and adventure treks, and then greying men wound up being more conditioned by media than they are willing to admit.
 

crgildart

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I'm betting that first there was a media obsession shift away from Porsches onto fitness, bikes and adventure treks, and then greying men wound up being more conditioned by media than they are willing to admit.
It was the ads that told older men they couldn't have Viagra if they aren't healthy enough for sexual activity.
 

Slim

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The one thing that wasn’t clear to me from the article, was, is the average age of victims going up(the title) or is the age group with the highest percentage of victims the middle aged bracket (kind of what the article seemed to be saying)?

The first could simply be caused by an increase In the average age of users in avalanche terrrain.

The more interesting question is, which age group is most likely to become victims of an avalanche?
That is kind of what the article seems to suggest, but it doesn’t actually come out and say it.

Does anyone (@Analisa?) know whether the latter is is fact what their research found?
 
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James

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The Swiss have a study out too.
They eliminated foreigners for this study.

"The median age at death of the avalanche victims in our analysis increased from 31 years in the first ten years of our study period (1995–2004: N = 123) to 42 years in the last ten years of our study period (2005–2014: N = 127). This is also reflected in the hazard for younger persons (15–39 years), which was significantly lower for the years 2005–2014 than for the years 1995–2004. Whether this is linked to an increased use of avalanche safety gear in this age group, changes in risk behaviour, or whether fewer younger people participate in these outdoor-activities, is unclear. However, similar ageing trends have also been noted for the users of the Swiss avalanche forecast, but also for avalanche victims in France [9,27]."

 

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