-
For more information on how to avoid pop-up ads and still support SkiTalk click HERE.
Tesla 3 - as predicted
- Thread starter x10003q
- Start date
So Tesla lost $718 million last quarter....
Sure, but that doesn't tell the whole story.
Amazon lost money for over a decade, having to go to the well repeatedly to achieve the economy of scale necessary to turn a profit. Now they have an EPS of 11, even with one of the largest capitalizations in the world and are on one helluva run in value.
And maybe the market agrees, as TSLA stock is up over 3% in after hours trading (since the report was released).
In terms of valuing the company and predicting future success, this is perhaps the most pertinent info:
". . . the Model 3’s gross margin “should grow significantly” to approximately 15 percent in the third quarter and 20 percent in fourth quarter, thanks to “continued reduction in manufacturing costs and to some extent an improving mix.”"
That's huge, because it shows that the massive capitalization is starting to pay back in terms of economies of scale.
I am still not buying one. Yet. Or even touching the stock (too volatile). But its actually a pretty good earnings report.
Given that investor-activists have been saying that Tesla is about to run out of money for months, this is pretty interesting too:
"The electric car company said it lost more than $717.5 million in the second quarter. But its cash burn rate was less than investors expected, and the company had $2.2 billion in cash at the end of the quarter."
Sounds to me like enough money to keep operating long enough to realize those promising margins.
Does anyone in this thread have a good pic of the Euro rear turn indicators on Tesla 3s?
Imagine driving east during a red sky morning, the sun is glinting off the metal in front of you.
Now imagine that the sun glint off an Audi S5's hatch spoiler is both brighter and more visible than the Tesla 3's activated turn indicator, in the lane immediately next to him.
That happens, right? Hmmm, maybe but the turn should be bigger and brighter.
The weird thing is they were much the same shape, an eye-brow shaped line. Which simply shouldn't happen.
If I was a T III owner, that is the first change I would want to make - switch to the Euro tail lamps.
Imagine driving east during a red sky morning, the sun is glinting off the metal in front of you.
Now imagine that the sun glint off an Audi S5's hatch spoiler is both brighter and more visible than the Tesla 3's activated turn indicator, in the lane immediately next to him.
That happens, right? Hmmm, maybe but the turn should be bigger and brighter.
The weird thing is they were much the same shape, an eye-brow shaped line. Which simply shouldn't happen.
If I was a T III owner, that is the first change I would want to make - switch to the Euro tail lamps.
Last edited:
There is a very interesting article on the IEEE (yes this the group that deals with anything electrical) cover, Tesla should watch out for Madza’s New engine technology.
Very interesting read, considering the biggest issue is how fast energy can be tranfered (5 min fill with gas or 8 hour charge for a full charge in batteries) along with range for same.
The short version of the article is basically use old current tech, combined with newer computing power for timing to maximize combustion efficiencies while not making the system overly complex using diesel like combustion models for gasoline.
One thing that everyone misses, electricity is generated by a primary source be it gas, water, coal, nuclear, wind or solar. In the case of gas, which in the overall scope of things is more efficient?
Sometimes I wonder if the overall effect is all smoke and mirrors in the overall scope of things and we are all getting bent out of shape for nothing.
Very interesting read, considering the biggest issue is how fast energy can be tranfered (5 min fill with gas or 8 hour charge for a full charge in batteries) along with range for same.
The short version of the article is basically use old current tech, combined with newer computing power for timing to maximize combustion efficiencies while not making the system overly complex using diesel like combustion models for gasoline.
One thing that everyone misses, electricity is generated by a primary source be it gas, water, coal, nuclear, wind or solar. In the case of gas, which in the overall scope of things is more efficient?
Sometimes I wonder if the overall effect is all smoke and mirrors in the overall scope of things and we are all getting bent out of shape for nothing.
The controlling of access to repair parts is true bur I think it's more because the fate of the company is within a huge gamble right now with the new car sales and production numbers..
How can they focus on developing the repair parts supply chain when they need all focus and all part for new production. Whatever spares they are making, they need to direct to their own repair shops. If they did not establish access control on their spare parts, then the free market will spontaneous create hording or gouging and tesla parts would be unavailable even to their own shops.
If you believe the company will eventually evolve their ways out of chaos and reach a steady state; then perhaps they can then go back and focuse on their repair parts supply chain future. If you think they always will be in a state of chaos to keep ahead of the market pressures, they're never going to get around to reinforcing their replacement parts part of the business. Shareholders do not care about replacement parts sales numbers.
Also realize, it is less about parts failure but more about collisions. Say you get into a medium sized fender bender with your Tesla, it's pretty going to be totaled due to lack of access to replacement parts.
For the company's ideals of being environmentally solution; it could end up being the biggest irony that the cars they build will become disposable throwaways and prematurely junked due to lack of repair parts; just like most consumer electronics.
Last edited:
If you look at a number of youtube videos, that seems to be the problem. Tesla is not selling the parts to fix them. And a lot of cars are now at the end of the 8 year warranty. That will be a big question, what to do with them . No parts or aftermarket repair would kill any resale market.
It can also create aftermarket suppliers to cover the the short fall. I have already seen video to fix the door lock issue with upgraded aftermarket parts.
- Joined
- Nov 12, 2015
- Posts
- 6,329
The supply of aftermarket spares is one of the most complex issues that modern motor manufacturers deal with these days. Gone largely are the days of the aftermarket manager calling his mate in the factory and pulling stock out of lineside bins - that can have a big knock on on production.
I would doubt given their well publicised production issues that Tesla are all over it.
It is also a feature that non OEM suppliers do start supplying pattern parts. The economic incentive to do so where service is "locked in" to an OEM network is obviously much less. I don't know the specifics but I think denying warranty for service outside of network is illegal in the EU.
I would doubt given their well publicised production issues that Tesla are all over it.
It is also a feature that non OEM suppliers do start supplying pattern parts. The economic incentive to do so where service is "locked in" to an OEM network is obviously much less. I don't know the specifics but I think denying warranty for service outside of network is illegal in the EU.
What you are saying could turn out to be true about Tesla. I don't think so, but could.
The post I was replying to was saying that EV are inherently expensive to repair. Which is the opposite of correct.
Tesla is still trying to control the aftermarket. They don't want you to sell yours to me. They want you to trade it in for a new one. So they can do any work necessary to make your old one presentable (and puff up the value) and then sell it (at a profit) to me.
So far it has worked for them and resale value on Teslas is outstanding. I think the end is near--two to three years--for this strategy. For the reasons you are saying. Not everybody is going to trade it in for a new Tesla (or sell it outright to Tesla). Eventually they will have to support the 3rd party supply and repair or it will undercut value.
And that's just fine. I think they did a shockingly good job of propping up value and that it only really was ever a start up strategy anyway.
Its been tested and failed in the US too. Same with software. You can hack it (if you CAN) and the manufacturer can't do anything about it.
Car manufacturers have done this for years under the term leasing. Yes it has tax benefits (for some ie business write offs) and reduces monthly costs for the poor joe, but from a manufacturers point you have a repeat customer every ....(lease term or shorter depending on mileage limit). Double dip profit new and used. Tesla is just using a different business model but the control of used price is the same.
Unfortunately this is a bit of sales smoke and mirrors that has bite the car manufacturers on and off over the years. Hopefully Tesla doesn’t get bit to badly playing this type of game.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/dri...d-einhorn-chooses-not-to-renew-model-s-lease/
Now this guy isn't renewing his lease ,but he's upset about losing a ton of dough after shorting Tesla stock, so he may have a bit of a bias....
Now this guy isn't renewing his lease ,but he's upset about losing a ton of dough after shorting Tesla stock, so he may have a bit of a bias....
It’s a shame that people with this type of influence are playing this tweeting game (amongst other formats) as the reprocussions could significantly and adversely impact global economies and hurt a lot of innocent bystanders. The only purpose is for money and petty personal reasons.
I guess when you are bleeding money, losing less than expected is a good thing.
$2.2 Billion in cash? How long would that last with no more government subsidies and the elimination of the $7500 tax credit on sales?
They burned through $ 1 billion in the first quarter of 2018.
Its hard to even comprehend numbers so large.
Well, the reverse argument is he's warning people that he thinks may be caught in a bubble...It’s a shame that people with this type of influence are playing this tweeting game (amongst other formats) as the reprocussions could significantly and adversely impact global economies and hurt a lot of innocent bystanders. The only purpose is for money and petty personal reasons.