Hello everybody,
I have been planning to start a snow forecast thread for a while now here, and now we are reaching winter, I thought this would be a suitable time to create a formal thread for those who are interested in the snow forecast, and making or reading them.
I'll start with my own forecast for the next little while.
Here is the 10 day snow forecast for the United States from the ECMWF model.
This features snow in Vermont and New Hampshire, as well as in Upstate NY State. There is also snow starting to fall in the Mid Atlantic. Snowfall in the Rockies continues with a little bit for CO & UT over the next 24 hours, a few inches at most next Tues and Weds as well.
Further out in the long term, a deep low enters the PNW on Thursday, tracking through the coastal ranges and into the Rockies on Friday and Saturday, dropping up to 10" in the Rockies in CO, UT & WY. Potentially similar numbers for the higher mountains in Washington State. A dusting for the Sierra Nevada on Thursday to lake level. This is all caused by an extension of the Pacific Jet, which was caused by a positive East Asian Mountain Torque event. All that is important here, is when that occurs, more snowfall on the Western side of the Continent occurs on average for a period of 5 days or so, which this aligns with.
In the East, they are expecting a deep low over the weekend, which will bring a few inches to large parts of New England.
Below is a GIF of the ECMWF model forecast in terms of troughing and ridging.
Further out than 10 days, EPS shows troughing moving towards East, and ridging developing over the Western Half of the continent. After the Pacific Jet starts to weaken again, other climate drivers take over, and help develop a Eastern trough, principally a negative Arctic Oscillation (described below).
I completely encourage all discussion of snow forecasts in this thread, regardless of whether you are knowledgeable in the field or not. Ask questions, post models, etc, etc.
Thanks to all, and I hope everyone has a good winter!
I have been planning to start a snow forecast thread for a while now here, and now we are reaching winter, I thought this would be a suitable time to create a formal thread for those who are interested in the snow forecast, and making or reading them.
I'll start with my own forecast for the next little while.
Here is the 10 day snow forecast for the United States from the ECMWF model.
This features snow in Vermont and New Hampshire, as well as in Upstate NY State. There is also snow starting to fall in the Mid Atlantic. Snowfall in the Rockies continues with a little bit for CO & UT over the next 24 hours, a few inches at most next Tues and Weds as well.
Further out in the long term, a deep low enters the PNW on Thursday, tracking through the coastal ranges and into the Rockies on Friday and Saturday, dropping up to 10" in the Rockies in CO, UT & WY. Potentially similar numbers for the higher mountains in Washington State. A dusting for the Sierra Nevada on Thursday to lake level. This is all caused by an extension of the Pacific Jet, which was caused by a positive East Asian Mountain Torque event. All that is important here, is when that occurs, more snowfall on the Western side of the Continent occurs on average for a period of 5 days or so, which this aligns with.
In the East, they are expecting a deep low over the weekend, which will bring a few inches to large parts of New England.
Below is a GIF of the ECMWF model forecast in terms of troughing and ridging.
Further out than 10 days, EPS shows troughing moving towards East, and ridging developing over the Western Half of the continent. After the Pacific Jet starts to weaken again, other climate drivers take over, and help develop a Eastern trough, principally a negative Arctic Oscillation (described below).
I completely encourage all discussion of snow forecasts in this thread, regardless of whether you are knowledgeable in the field or not. Ask questions, post models, etc, etc.
Thanks to all, and I hope everyone has a good winter!