Jellybeans1000

Getting off the lift
Industry Insider
Posts
274
Location
Victoria, Australia
Hello everybody,
I have been planning to start a snow forecast thread for a while now here, and now we are reaching winter, I thought this would be a suitable time to create a formal thread for those who are interested in the snow forecast, and making or reading them.

I'll start with my own forecast for the next little while.

IMG_5432.PNG

Here is the 10 day snow forecast for the United States from the ECMWF model.
This features snow in Vermont and New Hampshire, as well as in Upstate NY State. There is also snow starting to fall in the Mid Atlantic. Snowfall in the Rockies continues with a little bit for CO & UT over the next 24 hours, a few inches at most next Tues and Weds as well.

Further out in the long term, a deep low enters the PNW on Thursday, tracking through the coastal ranges and into the Rockies on Friday and Saturday, dropping up to 10" in the Rockies in CO, UT & WY. Potentially similar numbers for the higher mountains in Washington State. A dusting for the Sierra Nevada on Thursday to lake level. This is all caused by an extension of the Pacific Jet, which was caused by a positive East Asian Mountain Torque event. All that is important here, is when that occurs, more snowfall on the Western side of the Continent occurs on average for a period of 5 days or so, which this aligns with.

In the East, they are expecting a deep low over the weekend, which will bring a few inches to large parts of New England.

Below is a GIF of the ECMWF model forecast in terms of troughing and ridging.
IMG_5431.GIF


Further out than 10 days, EPS shows troughing moving towards East, and ridging developing over the Western Half of the continent. After the Pacific Jet starts to weaken again, other climate drivers take over, and help develop a Eastern trough, principally a negative Arctic Oscillation (described below).

IMG_5433.JPG


I completely encourage all discussion of snow forecasts in this thread, regardless of whether you are knowledgeable in the field or not. Ask questions, post models, etc, etc.

Thanks to all, and I hope everyone has a good winter!
 
Thread Starter
Jellybeans1000

Jellybeans1000

Getting off the lift
Industry Insider
Posts
274
Location
Victoria, Australia
An update on the situation:

The East is about to get a nice snowfall in October.
IMG_5495.PNG


Saturday EC 24 hr Forecast below.
IMG_5497.PNG


Not a lot for Western North America, unless you are in British Columbia, apart for a few inches in the US Rockies.

Potential for a 1/2 - 1 foot snowfall from PNW down the Rockies to Colorado Tuesday & Wednesday week.
 

Wilhelmson

Out on the slopes
Skier
Posts
1,587
Besides the graphic above I was thinking that Vermont might have a better chance of accumulating snow than NH or ME given the still warm ocean waters to the east.
 

Varmintmist

Bear, with furnture.
Skier
Posts
441
Location
W PA
Well, I have seen 2 predictors.

One woolly bear caterpillar who was bow to stern black.
Multiple hornets nests built on fiber slack loops. Hornets nest high so the snow wont wet their nest.
highhornetsnest.jpg
 
Thread Starter
Jellybeans1000

Jellybeans1000

Getting off the lift
Industry Insider
Posts
274
Location
Victoria, Australia
Besides the graphic above I was thinking that Vermont might have a better chance of accumulating snow than NH or ME given the still warm ocean waters to the east.
Maybe, but it typically means ridging offshore. Could help deepen and add moisture to lows however (Nor'easters)
 

Ken_R

Living the Dream
Skier
Posts
3,583
Location
Denver, CO
Whenever the east gets snow here in Colorado we get jack. Warm and dry weather prevails.
 
Thread Starter
Jellybeans1000

Jellybeans1000

Getting off the lift
Industry Insider
Posts
274
Location
Victoria, Australia
Here is the latest snowfall forecast for the next little while.
IMG_5591.GIF

11pm Weds - 11pm Thurs: 7-10" BC Interior, 15" Max for BC Coastal. 2-4" for CO, WY & UT.
11pm Thurs - 11pm Fri: 5-8" BC Coastal, 10-13" BC Interior, 4-7" CO & WY.
11pm Fri - 11pm Sat: 10-20" BC Coastal, 6-12" BC Interior, 3-7" CO & MT.
11pm Sat - 11pm Sun: 5-13" BC Interior, ID, WY, MT, CO & UT.
11pm Sun - 11pm Mon: 4-10" BC, CO, UT, MT & ID, Max to 12" WY.
11pm Mon - 11pm Tues: 1-4" US & Canadian Rockies
11pm Tues - 11pm Weds: 4-7" BC Coastal
11pm Weds - 11pm Thurs: 3-7" BC, ID & MT.
11pm Thurs - 11pm Fri: 5-10" WY, MT, ID, OR, WA & BC.

The good conditions over the weekend are helped by a -PNA.
IMG_5577.PNG
 

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slowrider

Making fresh tracks
Skier
Posts
1,672
The Blob is back. Does the increasing pollution of the Oceans raise sea temperatures? I'd prefer not to ski these conditions.
Bgrind.jpg
 
Thread Starter
Jellybeans1000

Jellybeans1000

Getting off the lift
Industry Insider
Posts
274
Location
Victoria, Australia
Yeah, forecasters around here (PNW) are looking at snow starting to fall, for real this time, right around Tuesday evening/Wedneday. Probably won’t be any skiing around here for Thanksgiving, but maybe the week after.
Maybe some more on the way in the long term (which is my main area of focus).
 

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