Sadly, there are losers

[jack97]

New Zealand? Rains frequently.

Australia? Well, it's a big place - not far off the size of USA without Alaska/Hawaii. So, yes, it will rain again at some point in some parts.

Been dry for a while and there's controversy on the fire management policy, what to do with the deadwood. Reading reports the police are searching for arsonist starting some of these fires.

 

[James]

Like California, y'all need to figure out how to get the ocean onto the land quickly.

 

[geepers]

Been dry for a while and there's controversy on the fire management policy, what to do with the deadwood. Reading reports the police are searching for arsonist starting some of these fires.

Driest year on record. Warmest year on record.

Big influencer this time was the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Largest positive on record and those positives tend to delay the onset of the north west Australian monsoons and in turn that means less rainfall across Australia and more opportunities for heat to build in central Australia before being channelled down to the south east. Often the bad fire seasons in the past have been associated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) being in an El Nino phase however in this case it's been largely neutral for the last couple of years. Not looking forward to the next time both the IOD and SOI are the wrong way.

Don't believe much that you read on social media re forest management and arsonists. Both are certainly issues but have now become heavily politisied and subject to distortion and exaggeration. (Happens after every major bush fire event but it's now super-charged by SM where fact free news rides a fast horse.) The reason this season's bush fires have been off the scale is mostly due to the drought and record high temps. The temp increases, the increased frequency of droughts and the resultant increasing severity and longevity of bush fire seasons were all predicted 30 years ago. Some people simply feel uncomfortable being confronted with reality.

Like California, y'all need to figure out how to get the ocean onto the land quickly.

Not quite sure what to make of this comment, James. If it's a mood lightener then haha through gritted teeth.

If it is a serious suggestion then sea water is being used for water bombing. Unfortunately much of the time the smoke is so thick the aircraft can't be used. And there's an awful lot of Australia that isn't near the coast.

 

[James]

If it is a serious suggestion then sea water is being used for water bombing.

Semi serious. Water bombing is extremely slow.
Take that ocean front hotel. A few diesel driven pumps might have been able to save it.

 

[geepers]

Semi serious. Water bombing is extremely slow.
Take that ocean front hotel. A few diesel driven pumps might have been able to save it.

Apparently they had a bush fire sprinkler system.

It was installed with a sprinkler system and underground fire bunker to withstand bushfires, but co-owner Hayley Baillie said this fire was the "worst-case scenario".

Staff remained to take shelter and activate the sprinkler system to defend the property as party of the lodge's bushfire emergency plan.

 

[jack97]

Some people simply feel uncomfortable being confronted with reality.

This is so true.

In the states I grew up with Smokey the Bear, forest fires was a big issue and then it wasn't. Federal and states impacted invoked better land management policy.


1920 and 1934 had fire issues in that region,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Friday_bushfires

https://www.utas.edu.au/library/companion_to_tasmanian_history/B/Bushfires.htm

 

[James]

Apparently they had a bush fire sprinkler system.

It was installed with a sprinkler system and underground fire bunker to withstand bushfires, but co-owner Hayley Baillie said this fire was the "worst-case scenario".

Staff remained to take shelter and activate the sprinkler system to defend the property as party of the lodge's bushfire emergency plan.

Sad! They tried.
Fires are front page NY Times today -again. Quote is "It was like an atom bomb". The way ash cloud blew up then rained down.

 

[Rod9301]

Thé issue in the states is that the forest service has been suppressing fires for a century instead of letting them burn, so now there is an enormous amount of fuel on the ground.

 

[jack97]

Thé issue in the states is that the forest service has been suppressing fires for a century instead of letting them burn, so now there is an enormous amount of fuel on the ground.

This depends on the time frame, from 1926 to 2017 there has been a dramatic downturn in fires. In the 1950's to 1960's the federal government started using control burns instead of suppression.

States still have discretion of their forest lands and some have deviated from this practice. Article below points out the case in California.

CA control Burn


Back to Australia, from what I have read, they are presently using suppression and I read articles from advocates of control burns warning of this impending disaster. It seems the policy they invoke is more about ideology.

 

[geepers]

Thé issue in the states is that the forest service has been suppressing fires for a century instead of letting them burn, so now there is an enormous amount of fuel on the ground.

In Oz we tend to have to let these things burn out, unless affecting lives and assets where there attempts are made to stop the fires in a limited area - like house by house. Mostly because there really isn't any way to put them out a large bush fire short of rain. Lots of rain. Containment lines (cleared land, back burns) only go so far when wind blown embers create spot fires 20-30km in front of the main fire.

It seems the policy they invoke is more about ideology.

Ideology? Yeah, nah. That's the "heavily politisied and subject to distortion and exaggeration" part I mentioned previously. It's the sort of commentary coming largely from those are seeking to divert attention from other causes and should be seen through that filter.

I have a passing interest in what's happening as I live on the bush / urban interface. From what I understand what you call forest management and we call prescribed or hazard reduction burnings have their place but are not some magic panacea.

The issue is the hotter, dryer conditions at times of high wind. There's a measure called the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) where 0 is benign and 100 is intended to be as bad as the 1939 fires which were the worst known when the index was invented. Once that index gets past about 50 the research shows a switch from fuel-dominated to a weather-dominated fire. At this point, while fuel has a small effect, it is overwhelmed by the weather. Researchers found that even in the areas where fuel had been treated with planned burns less than five years prior, there was no measurable effect on the intensity of the fires. They found that high temperatures and very high winds only need a negligible amount of fuel to produce a fire intensity that is not suppressible and all organic matter is going to burn.

The FFDI used to be displayed on signs that went from "Low-Moderate" to "Extreme". In the 2009 fires, which claimed many lives, it was realised that existing protocols of people remaining to defend their houses were no longer working and the "Catestrophic" category for FFDI of 100+ was added. Basically this means there's a good chance of dying if you attempt to defend your house so best thing is to leave the area before the fire arrives.

You'll see signs like these on Australia highways and if you see one with the arrow like this best turn around and head the other way.

So how does 2019 stack up against other years? Let this run through and you'll find 2019 in the upper left, a good bit dryer and hotter than any year since 1910.

 

[James]

It's raining in Melbourne?

 

[geepers]

It's raining in Melbourne?

That's like asking some-one in Los Angeles what the weather is like in Portland Oregon.

If you mean has rain put out the bushfires? Helped tone down the situation quite a bit but plenty of fires still going - some uncontained - and summer/autumn has a way to run.

 

[James]

That's like asking some-one in Los Angeles what the weather is like in Portland Oregon.

Lol. No idea where you are.
So, you're in LA?

 

[Wildbear]

This depends on the time frame, from 1926 to 2017 there has been a dramatic downturn in fires. In the 1950's to 1960's the federal government started using control burns instead of suppression.

States still have discretion of their forest lands and some have deviated from this practice. Article below points out the case in California.

CA control Burn


Back to Australia, from what I have read, they are presently using suppression and I read articles from advocates of control burns warning of this impending disaster. It seems the policy they invoke is more about ideology.

Finally.... someone posts real statistics instead of Thunberg inspired drivel.

Thank you

 

[Wildbear]

There is big money to be made supplying fire crews and running suppression aircraft. The planes don't bring in much sitting on the tarmac.
Why else would people set fire to their own country unless just insane?

Latest News - NSW Police Public Site

www.police.nsw.gov.au

 

[chilehed]

This s a powerful image.

Holy crap. I'd like that post except it's not something I like.

 

[James]

There is big money to be made supplying fire crews and running suppression aircraft. The planes don't bring in much sitting on the tarmac.
Why else would people set fire to their own country unless just insane?

Latest News - NSW Police Public Site

www.police.nsw.gov.au

What’s the avg # of summonses for such offenses. Likely in LA there’s thousands cited each year just for throwing a cigarette out the window of a car.

 

[Wildbear]

What’s the avg # of summonses for such offenses. Likely in LA there’s thousands cited each year just for throwing a cigarette out the window of a car.

I'm sure there are. But 20 plus in AU are being charged with deliberately setting fires which is a whole different mindset than flicking a cigarette out the window.
I know the biggest fire in AZ in recent history was set.
A fire here in Durango was from a homeless camp.
During dry years even a spark from a horseshoe on a rock can start one.
The whole San Juan basin had a sixty year drought some 700 years ago or so. The population increases make things seem worse than historical facts.
1871...

Peshtigo fire - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[jack97]

...... instead of Thunberg inspired drivel.

Thank you

I got a chuckled out of that. Unfortunately, that drivel resonates with certain crowd.

 

[cantunamunch]

Top quality video on the issue, worth every minute of the half hour:

Some highlights:
False arson story - 12:08
They are doing prescribed burns and there is no green conspiracy to stop them - 16:15
Yes there is a climate trend - 23:15
Indian Ocean Dipole - 25:00