On the Accuracy of Long Term Weather (Snow!) Forecasts

[Mike King]

Great article!

https://opensnow.com/news/post/did-...il&utm_term=newsletter&utm_campaign=2019-2020

I'm sure this will be a great winter!

Mike

 

[rocdoc]

Very nice article indeed, thanks for sharing.
But I think most of us will still look at the forecasts and daydream. It's like horoscopes - they're complete BS, but people still have fun with them

 

[sdstarr]

Long range forecasts are bad, but for some reason long range forecasts of the Pacific Northwest are really, really bad. However, if you want some good medium to short range forecasts in Washington check out the Poobah of Powder, Larry Schick!

https://powderpoobah.com/about

 

[LiquidFeet]

Great article!

https://opensnow.com/news/post/did-...il&utm_term=newsletter&utm_campaign=2019-2020

I'm sure this will be a great winter!

Mike

Thorough and lengthy article. I skipped to the end for this summary:

Some forecasters will use years of experience to adjust what the models are predicting, and a few forecasters could get it right some years. But as you can see above, most of the predictions for temperature, precipitation, and snowfall were completely off for last season. There are too many short-term patterns through the winter season that can't be forecasted more than 1-2 weeks out, and it is these short-term patterns that can control whether a certain region is cold and snowy or warm and dry.

 

[DanoT]

The long term winter forecast is useless unless it is broken down into smaller units than 6 months. Example: in my part of B.C. we had several mild spells at the start of winter which impacted opening dates and early season conditions for many resorts. (Sun Peaks was first to open in B.C.and the only resort to open on their projected scheduled opening day) This was followed by the coldest February in over 80 years, followed by May like temps in early March.

I think snow levels were about average but was it a very cold or very warm winter? The correct answer is Yes.

 

[Cheizz]

Wait... isn't that groundhog doing the long term forecast anymore?

 

[cantunamunch]

Wait... isn't that groundhog doing the long term forecast anymore?

We are now entering the level of trying to predict what the groundhog will predict...next season.

 

[James]

How's the accuracy of the rodent?

 

[HardDaysNight]

How's the accuracy of the rodent?

About as good as anyone else is!

 

[jack97]

North America already got some snowfall.....

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/campers-force...fter-august-snowstorm-damages-trees-1.4555720

 

[Marker]

The Wisconsin groundhog is more accurate than the more famous Pennsylvania groundhog, but six more weeks of winter in Wisconsin is always a good bet.

 

[4ster]

Deep down isn’t this something that all of us have always known but just don’t want to believe.
I’m surprised he even believes 10 days out is better than the flip of a coin.
& yes, it’s going to be the best winter ever!


!

 

[4ster]

Often I will surf forecasts till I find one that I like. Just came across this...

Since I plan to be in Utah most of the winter, I like it

 

[mdf]

Often I will surf forecasts till I find one that I like. Just came across this...
View attachment 78922
Since I plan to be in Utah most of the winter, I like it

Seconded. All in favor?

 

[HardDaysNight]

Aye!

 

[Jellybeans1000]

Not to be braggy or anything, just looking at it from my perspective. I didn't actually do that bad for the Western US, pretty well in fact given the nature of seasonal forecasting, in terms of last year's seasonal forecast. I bombed out with the Eastern US though.

I forecast California to have an above average snowfall season.
I forecast Colorado/Utah/NM/AZ to have an average, maybe even slightly above average snowfall season
I forecast the PNW and BC to have a below average snowfall season.
I forecast the Eastern US (New England and Mid Atlantic) to have a moderately-strongly above average snowfall season, particularly in December and February

That was down to the foreseeing of the strong Nino atmospheric state that dumped on California.
And the failure of the foreseen SSW to bring anything decent for the East Coast, because of several problems with strat-tropo teleconnection.

The other forecasts in the BA article are just too simplistic with looking at only the "popular" drivers.

 

[mdf]

I

The other forecasts in the BA article are just too simplistic with look

'
So you aren't in favor of 4ster's forecast? Stone him, he's a witch!

 

[Coach13]

My 85yo old dad always says that the only weather tool meteorologists can accurately use is a window.

 

[4ster]

I
'
So you aren't in favor of 4ster's forecast? Stone him, he's a witch!

Whoa! Not mine, that’s Farmers Almanac. I think it is based on caterpillar fur, butterfly effect, chaos theory or something like that.

My forecast is never a mystery, it is always for the best winter ever!

 

[Carolinacub]

Well we all know that scientists don't know anything about climate. I mean look at how wrong 90% of the scientist are regarding climate change and the effect that humans have on it.
Here in Western North Carolina we use the age old process of counting the mornings with fog in august and correlate that with snow in the winter. It always works except when it doesn't.