Last I recall the knowledgeable researchers I tend to listen to were indicating a “La Nada” - neither El Niño or La Niña. For the PNW, La Nadas are actually correlated with larger snowfall years.
You hear it here first. Unless it’s wrong, in which case I don’t recall every saying anything about it.
La Nada means 'nothing'. It's just the ENSO Neutral phase. Which currently is the case.
The current ENSO projections are in fact, heading towards Borderline or Weak Nino (based on BoM standards). This correlates with -AO/-NAO, which as the OP elludes to, increases the chance of snowfall in the East (though I still don't get the obsession with Bastardi, in this changing environment)
In addition to this, we are still in a negative
QBO phase, we may still be in that phase in winter. This supports a -AO/-NAO winter, but it is currently slowly changing towards a positive QBO, that would improve Western snowfall chances. The solar situation also supports a -AO/-NAO (better for the East), and then there is also the interesting volcanic activity. For those who don't know, a large-scale, either high sulfur level, or stratospheric(very high into the atmosphere) volcanic explosion can increase snowfall chances substantially. And decreases your chance of sunny days.
The oceanic temperature gradients in the Pacific and Atlantic could also be something to watch for funneling of snow bearing systems and atmospheric rivers (latter referring to Pacific Ocean). Ineresting to see the ice cover remaining higher than expected, as said that could induce Greenland Blocking which would mean a -NAO. High North American Snow Cover induces a more +AO setup, that would help the Western slopes. Vice versa with high Greenland snow cover, through different mechanisms. Certainly an interesting setup, will wait for details to firm up though before making any big calls.
