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LKLA

Out on the slopes
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Apr 24, 2017
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According to AccuWeather, areas that typically receive large amounts of lake-effect snow will be getting hit quite heavily this winter.

In addition to being colder than last year, snowfall around New York City and Boston could be about six inches above normal.

This year is expected to be a good ski season in the Northeast, with some snow for the interior Northeast before the holidays.

Although Northern California's Sierra Nevada mountain range is expected to be less snowy, it should still receive enough snowfall for good skiing conditions in the Northwest, including the Cascades and Rockies.

Arctic blasts are expected to freeze the northern Plains with temperatures sinking to subzero levels on a regular basis.However, the frigid conditions are a trade-off for less snowfall.

Winter will be comparatively mild in the Southern Plains, the Southwest and southern California, where forecasters say winter will be milder and drier than last year.

450B6F6F00000578-4950248-Parts_of_the_United_States_are_set_to_receive_a_cold_and_windy_w-a-4_1507167914477.jpg
 

Jellybeans1000

Getting off the lift
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Victoria, Australia
This could probably go here:
https://pugski.com/threads/another-general-weather-forecast-but-no-climate-data-debates-thread.5716/

Everybody seems to be throwing out their winter outlooks. Lots of tweets coming through about that. I am waiting for the Siberian Snow Cover data to come through. ATM it looks like to be very extensive. That played a massive role last year in giving the Sierras it's massive season. La Niña really meant nothing last year, due to a very strong Pacific jet. I can explain more in detail why, if anybody wants.

Just need to see want the jet is doing, the SST setup, then I will give a review into the situation. I have also been getting heaps of tweets on my feed about 'Inaccuweather'.....

Full disclosure, I use their model products for forecasting. Probably not for much longer, thanks to Ryan Maue giving out his amazing weather charts (including snowfall) for free.
 

Jilly

Lead Cougar
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Belleville, Ontario,/ Mont Tremblant, Quebec
I like that "inaccuweather". I usually look through the Canadian Weather Network, the government site and Accuweather. Decide which I like best or consult the Old Farmers Almanac for further info.

It's Canada...there will be snow, there will be cold!
 

Core2

Making fresh tracks
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Nov 29, 2015
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AZ
What is the theory behind the wooly worm?
 

nay

dirt heel pusher
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Right now in Colorado the pattern feels very much like persistence - we just got a big storm of heavy wet snow with huge differentiation above 11K coming out of the SSW. Forecast was in the 6" range, and in the high places than can still be favored in SSW flow despite blocking ranges to their West, the totals were way above forecast. Exactly like last Dec to mid-Jan.

This is precisely what created the tale of two elevations in CO last year, where in the same snow climate zones, the higher elevations had a great season and lower were subpar.

Persistence is an undervalued forecast tool. Droughts and other pattern stability setups can be hard to break, and there's nothing in ENSO to suggest otherwise this season. There is an unusually strong early season flow continuing to come off the Pacific. The next round comes out of the Gulf of Alaska and Colorado will probably open at the end of next week given the cold temps, more snow, and great snowmaking temps.

That means nothing for say January, except to the extent this season favors persistence. There is hella moisture around here for Oct, almost monsoonal. That's unusual and my dogs have for a second straight season stayed insanely coated up over the summer to the extent they have been quite uncomfortable (Bernese Mountain Dogs).

So my bet is that ENSO based forecasts are going to be (even more) meaningless, and things this season are more often than not going to pattern like last season.
 

Jellybeans1000

Getting off the lift
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@Jellybeans1000

How about a long term forecast for Park City/Deer Valley in December if possible.

Thanks
Okay, remind me then. I will be doing a general USA seasonal forecast hopefully sometime in November. But I am more than happy to take a more specific look at Northern Utah for you.
 

Jellybeans1000

Getting off the lift
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Victoria, Australia
The OP pic assumes that NAO doesn't change to negative by, say, Christmas. The green wetness on the right /could/ turn around in the space of 3 weeks or less.
The green wetness on the right is there, because that's what is supposed to happen in a La Niña. NAO and many other factors could change that very easily. ENSO alone isn't a great forecast tool for the Eastern US.

Also the NAO cannot be forecasted very well beyond about 2-3 weeks. So I think Accuweather are basically doing the typical La Niña forecast.
 

Jellybeans1000

Getting off the lift
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Posts
283
Location
Victoria, Australia
Right now in Colorado the pattern feels very much like persistence - we just got a big storm of heavy wet snow with huge differentiation above 11K coming out of the SSW. Forecast was in the 6" range, and in the high places than can still be favored in SSW flow despite blocking ranges to their West, the totals were way above forecast. Exactly like last Dec to mid-Jan.

This is precisely what created the tale of two elevations in CO last year, where in the same snow climate zones, the higher elevations had a great season and lower were subpar.

Persistence is an undervalued forecast tool. Droughts and other pattern stability setups can be hard to break, and there's nothing in ENSO to suggest otherwise this season. There is an unusually strong early season flow continuing to come off the Pacific. The next round comes out of the Gulf of Alaska and Colorado will probably open at the end of next week given the cold temps, more snow, and great snowmaking temps.

That means nothing for say January, except to the extent this season favors persistence. There is hella moisture around here for Oct, almost monsoonal. That's unusual and my dogs have for a second straight season stayed insanely coated up over the summer to the extent they have been quite uncomfortable (Bernese Mountain Dogs).

So my bet is that ENSO based forecasts are going to be (even more) meaningless, and things this season are more often than not going to pattern like last season.
Are you meaning that early season snowfall is a reliable indicator of the season ahead? Because it's definitely not.
Colorado really doesn't get much impact from ENSO.
 
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Blue Streak

I like snow.
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Edwards, Colorado
I predict that we are going to have a great year, irrespective of snowpack!

But the snowpack is going to be AWESOME :snowball:
 
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