Is it too early to talk winter weather?

[jack97]

Why? Why? Why!

Don't shoot nor cyber bully the messenger..... we will most likely get a Greenland blocking pattern due to the buildup of ice and snow in the region, the albedo effect results in a high pressure air mass that alters the polar jet stream. This coupled with a negative phase NAO (North Atlantic oscillation) index will bring the cold to the east coast and Europe. Late last winter, this pattern was developing as well but the North East never got good storms during the cold cycle.

Here's the latest on the snow/ice build up at Greenland, it's on the high end of buildup

Here's a GIF of late last winter jet stream pattern, it set up a ridge which prevented storms from coming into the NW and a trough along the east coast for N'easters to develop.

 

[MattSmith]

Thanks for the information. Interesting perspective.

Not sure about the cyber bullying comment. I can't see using that term lightly. It was hardly the intent and understanding it's difficult to assess emotion via text I'll allow the accusation to pass. I might be "Bro-ish", but I'm not going to be branded a bully.

 

[Mendieta]

On a better note though, I have been wanting to purchase a recreational snow maker for my back yard shenanigans this year; maybe, I can aid our weather in producing snow, or at least in the downtown area!

You are not alone!
https://www.pugski.com/threads/home-snowmaking.2491/

 

[Doug Briggs]

I saw geese heading south the other day. Whooppee!

 

[Sibhusky]

In spite of him quoting Matt, I think the comment was addressed to the world at large who might take issue with his presenting weather data sure to make many of us unhappy. The only purpose of the quote was to introduce the subject of "Why". But I agree that the use of that quote was misleading. It would have been better to leave off Matt's name to avoid personalizing the remark.

 

[Sdavila]

You are not alone!
https://www.pugski.com/threads/home-snowmaking.2491/

This makes me so happy

 

[neonorchid]

Why? Why? Why!

In spite of him quoting Matt, I think the comment was addressed to the world at large who might take issue with his presenting weather data sure to make many of us unhappy. The only purpose of the quote was to introduce the subject of "Why". But I agree that the use of that quote was misleading. It would have been better to leave off Matt's name to avoid personalizing the remark.

Actually, I took it as "Why" as in why is a "possible" El Niño Modoki (cold and snowy around our East coast and the Alps), a bad thing in that Matt is from the East (as am I), and a good snow year for those in the East would be welcomed. Not to mention flights to the Alps are easier from the ice coast then the left coast.

 

[MattSmith]

Actually, I took it as "Why" as in why is that a bad thing in that Matt is from the East (as am I), and a good snow year for those in the East would be welcomed. Not to mention flights to the Alps are easier from the ice coast then the left coast.

East coast shred through mid-Feb and then off MT for the Gathering and hope to follow the snow from there.

I'll use addition caution in future posts to consider different points of view. To clear the air; "Why? Why? Why!" was intended to reflect exasperation directed toward Ullr, not any accusation toward @neonorchid. Quite the contrary, I really enjoy their "Sleepers Awake" posts. https://www.pugski.com/threads/sleepers-awake-no-classic-rock-weve-enough-of-that-in-what-if.1640/ I am hoping continued prayer and sacrifice will sway the prediction of a off-year.

...and I got a good answer to "why" from the "why would you say that POV" from @jack97.
So it's all good. Back to the winter weather thread...

 

[cantunamunch]

Not to mention flights to the Alps are easier from the ice coast then the left coast.

Yup. The only downside to a negative NAO is that it has an even-steven chance of disappearing in a month

 

[jack97]

So it's all good. Back to the winter weather thread...

Glad to hear it's all good. The cyber bully remark was not geared at you (and I should be careful next time on how the message is conveyed).

BTW, the patterns are just preliminaries, it should come into focus by Nov to Dec time frame. However if the ridge is setting up at the NW and blocking a good portion of the storms going into UT and CO, it might be a good idea to ski in Europe. At the beginning of this year, my daughter did a foreign study in Paris and visited the french Alps, she said it was beautiful and the air fares were cheap. If oil remains cheap, the air fares should follow.

 

[Jellybeans1000]

Yup. The only downside to a negative NAO is that it has an even-steven chance of disappearing in a month

That's what a snow/ice buildup in Greenland creates. A long term -NAO trend.

But I want backup from ENSO and the collective AO structure IMO.

 

[graham418]

It seems the Farmer Almanac (not to be confused with 'the Old Farmers Almanac) is predicting the opposite of the Old Farmers book with record cold temps and snow across Canada.
I guess the secret is to find a forecast that suits your taste, and go with that.


https://snowboarding.transworld.net...018-2019-winter-weather-forecast-predictions/

 

[scott43]

Bought new skate guards today...season starts in 3 weeks... tick tock..

 

[graham418]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/take-...ave-phillips-predicts-milder-winter-1.4075532

Dave Phillips from Environment Canada says its going to be a milder winter. No mention of snow though

 

[cantunamunch]

I can see his point
- in Calgary and Winnipeg.

For anything east of Superior - remember the Montreal ice storm was in an El Nino year. Then there was all the fun we had with snow in 2005...

 

[Ken_R]

Its gonna be hard for this upcoming winter to be worse than the last one in most areas in Colorado. Most areas had record low snow all season long. The more west and SW you went in the state the worse it was.

 

[cantunamunch]

Its gonna be hard for this upcoming winter to be worse than the last one in most areas in Colorado. Most areas had record low snow all season long. The more west and SW you went in the state the worse it was.

Remember 2002 - 2003, that El Nino? When the Selkirks and Purcells got massive early season snow, which promptly proceeded to slide clean off leaving places like Panorama and Kicking Horse as tree stump filled boneyards? Moguls with log centers, baking in the sun and freezing overnight, yum. Immediately followed by a colossal BC/AB fire season, starting in April/May.


It's really hard to read Dave Phillips' forecast as anything other than "Here come another one of *those*" .

Canadians flying to UT and CO for snow - totally on the table.

 

[neonorchid]

^
What The, What The, What The What The, What The, What The, What The What The, What The, What The, What The What The, What The, What The, What The What The, What The, What The, What The What The, What The, What The, What The What The, What The, What The, What The What The, What The, What The, What The What The, What The, What The, What The What The, What The, What The, What The What The, What The, What The, What The What The F!

I'm seriously considerig canceling out of a first week of Feb Whistler trip while I still can!

 

[raisingarizona]

I get teased at work a lot about my love for winter. Everyone thinks I want winter NOW. While I love winter and it's indeed my favorite season, I love Fall almost as much. I'm down with a good couple months of fall. There's so many great things that happen in fall, too many to list. Most of all I love the chill in the air and the leaves changing. Fall makes me happy too.

Fall is like foreplay. The build up and anticipation is sometimes as good as the actual event. It's a lot like Christmas Eve to a really young kid.

 

[surfsnowgirl]

Fall is like foreplay. The build up and anticipation is sometimes as good as the actual event. It's a lot like Christmas Eve to a really young kid.

I couldn't have said it better myself.