Is it too early to talk winter weather?

[Jellybeans1000]

A prediction based only on "is it El Nino or La Nina?" is unlikely to be be useful. A range of other factors influence snow fall.

The forecaster called The Grasshopper on mountainwatch.com is issuing pre-season forecasts for Australia and New Zealand based on a range of factors including ENSO and various ocean temperatures. Then looking at the snow falls for years with similar conditions. There may be much more to it (which may or may not include goat entrails) but since I've been taking notice, those pre-season forecasts (made around April/May) have been a pretty good match with actual.

Yes. ENSO is used as this "Nino or Niña" equation, but it is actually a multi faceted machine that has feedback loops with dozens of other factors that have their own influences, etc.

The Grasshopper clearly reads a lot, but doesn't really understand how to put it together IMO, and puts more of a priority on a nice sounding article. His general medium term forecasts also reflects this.

 

[geepers]

Yes. ENSO is used as this "Nino or Niña" equation, but it is actually a multi faceted machine that has feedback loops with dozens of other factors that have their own influences, etc.

The Grasshopper clearly reads a lot, but doesn't really understand how to put it together IMO, and puts more of a priority on a nice sounding article. His general medium term forecasts also reflects this.

The bits of the Grasshopper's horoscope that seem to matched reasonably well (from my own very subjective view) is the early season forecast of snow depth profile. Basically, which part of the season can we expect snow. Given Australia's marginal snow making weather it's got to be a very challenging job to predict. I don't pay much attention to his short range forecasts (what this weekend's storm will bring) as by that time I'm usually either committed to go (or not go) and who needs depressing news?

I see your byline is "Resident Weatherman". I'll have a look through your forecasts to see how they stack up.

 

[Jellybeans1000]

The bits of the Grasshopper's horoscope that seem to matched reasonably well (from my own very subjective view) is the early season forecast of snow depth profile. Basically, which part of the season can we expect snow. Given Australia's marginal snow making weather it's got to be a very challenging job to predict. I don't pay much attention to his short range forecasts (what this weekend's storm will bring) as by that time I'm usually either committed to go (or not go) and who needs depressing news?

I see your byline is "Resident Weatherman". I'll have a look through your forecasts to see how they stack up.

That was based on the ENSO forecast IIRC. Fair play, but the season is moving forward and we got lots of snow last week. I doubt that ENSO has a huge amount to play in recent events anyways.

I think it is always a good idea to look at some sort of short range forecast. Find the best spots, avoid the ice, etc.

My forecast is here for anyone to view:
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/05/australia-winter-2018-seasonal-outlook.html?m=1

 

[Ken_R]

yes, its too early and there's about 3% chance of accuracy, now go ride your bike .

My thoughts exactly.

 

[mister moose]

While large weather patterns do have generalized consequences, they still aren't predictors for exact locations, and certainly not for the time you happen to be available.

I keep my ear to the ground 5 days out, pay attention 48 hours out, and take action 12-24 hours out.

 

[jack97]

Seems Bastardi and D'Aleo are pushing the envelope using their analog model forecast.

 

[sbooker]

Seems Bastardi and D'Aleo are pushing the envelope using their analog model forecast.

Lol.
Weather and climate is such a complex beast with so many factors influencing an eventual result.
I'm no scientist but that chart looks just a bit too simple.

 

[Jellybeans1000]

Lol.
Weather and climate is such a complex beast with so many factors influencing an eventual result.
I'm no scientist but that chart looks just a bit too simple.

I have his full analysis and reasoning, and the grounding for it is shakey IMO. Too much reliance on an El Nino and several other factors falling into place. The analogs can always go wrong, etc.

 

[Carolinacub]

Seems Bastardi and D'Aleo are pushing the envelope using their analog model forecast.

It looks like we're in the sweet spot here in WNC

 

[Sibhusky]

https://localfreshies.com/noaa-vs-farmers-almanac-which-was-right-about-the-2017-18-season/

NOAA won in our area.

"
So…Who Is The Winner For Predicting 2017/18 season?
Specific regions: NOAA – 2 ; Farmer’s Almanac – 0; Tied — 2
Overall 2017-18 season: NOAA
NOAA predicted a Northwest storm track flow which 2017-18 produced. The major thing it didn’t point out was how dry the Southwest and Colorado would be. Even the Farmer’s Almanac got that wrong. While NOAA may have won this season, they did infinitely worse when it came to the long range weather forecasting in the 2015-16 season."

 

[geepers]

That was based on the ENSO forecast IIRC. Fair play, but the season is moving forward and we got lots of snow last week. I doubt that ENSO has a huge amount to play in recent events anyways.

I think it is always a good idea to look at some sort of short range forecast. Find the best spots, avoid the ice, etc.

My forecast is here for anyone to view:
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/05/australia-winter-2018-seasonal-outlook.html?m=1

I guess if I was so inclined I'd run a comparison between each of your early season predictions and the actual to see who has the better crystal ball. For what it's worth I see your May 6th prediction was for a peak of 182cm at Spencer Creek "slightly above average snow season" and Grasshopper's April 9th was for a peak in the range 180-220cm "fairly good start to the season, then a slowish late winter".

As at Aug 16th actual Spencer Creek was 203.9cm. So it's not another 1964 nor another 2006.

Although my general rule is to go skiing regardless of forecast (this avoids those "awesome day, should have been on the hill" conversations) it would be good if you could add some how the season will progress commentary if that's possible.

P.S. Appreciate you putting in the effort to make the forecast and make it publicly available.

 

[scott43]

Where's that octopus ....

 

[cantunamunch]

Where's that octopus ....

Making a break for freedom through the drainpipe?

 

[Jellybeans1000]

I guess if I was so inclined I'd run a comparison between each of your early season predictions and the actual to see who has the better crystal ball. For what it's worth I see your May 6th prediction was for a peak of 182cm at Spencer Creek "slightly above average snow season" and Grasshopper's April 9th was for a peak in the range 180-220cm "fairly good start to the season, then a slowish late winter".

As at Aug 16th actual Spencer Creek was 203.9cm. So it's not another 1964 nor another 2006.

Although my general rule is to go skiing regardless of forecast (this avoids those "awesome day, should have been on the hill" conversations) it would be good if you could add some how the season will progress commentary if that's possible.

P.S. Appreciate you putting in the effort to make the forecast and make it publicly available.

Yeah last two years haven't been too great for me accuracy wise, but this was because of shorter term drivers playing a bigger role in producing above average seasons. I do make Long Range forecasts that do look several weeks further into the season, but not much further. Maybe that's something for me to consider. Thanks.

 

[Pete in Idaho]

Well Heck. Checked the Chukars legs for feathers and they look normal to me (Chukars are partridges out here in the western high country). Also checked the Cheat Grass that Chukars eat and it was pretty low so according to that measurement we will only get 3 inches of snow. Haven't seen any ant hills lately and the squirrels are up in the timber on the north slopes where it is cooler.

Now if the coming snowfall is measured somehow to the amount of smoke in the air then we'd have a measuring table.

Went into my ski room yesterday and everything looked OK, didn't see any snow and no real signs of what winter will be this year. I did notice my two season passes hanging there all alone.........WAITING.

Sometimes WAITING is harder than skiing Hercules run in the ice, oh I am sorry folks, we don't haves any ice up here, just powder.

 

[Michael Kane]

The corn is starting to fire around here. Plus the 1st issue of Powder Magazine showed up yesterday. All good signs

 

[jack97]

JB's snowfall prediction.

Yes, it does snow in Florida, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_in_Florida

 

[Ken_R]

JB's snowfall prediction.

Not good for the Western Resorts...

It has been pretty rough here in Colorado the past few winters. Very inconsistent snow compared to what is or was normal around here.

 

[jack97]

It has been pretty rough here in Colorado the past few winters. Very inconsistent snow compared to what is or was normal around here.

"Normal" has to referenced with decades of data.

 

[TheHitman]

Looks like Colorado is due for a big snow year