Is education an adequate antidote to back-country risk-taking?

[LiquidFeet]

I am not a backcountry skier, but I am interested in risk-taking and how that happens.
Risk-taking behavior applies even to novices who just took a lesson from me, making decisions as they head out to ski on blue groomers with friends.

I just re-read this article (https://www.outsideonline.com/1915051/colorados-loveland-pass-avalanche-lessons-learned) on the five deaths of highly-educated backcountry adventurers in the 2013 Loveland Pass avalanche.
The fact that the deaths came to highly informed people prompted this question in the middle of the article:
"Is backcountry education able to mitigate the level of risk riders take on?"

Here's another article on this subject, the 2012 avalanche at Tunnel Creek where 3 died. The group that headed out was experienced and well-informed and prompted this description in the article: “It was a very, very deep, heavy, powerful, strong group of pro skiers and ski industry people.”

Snow Fall: The Avalanche at Tunnel Creek

Fresh powder beckoned 16 expert skiers and snowboarders into the backcountry. Then the snow gave way.

www.nytimes.com

In both of these deadly avalanche events, highly informed people died. Given the current discussions about avalanche safety behavior, I thought it might be useful to isolate this question.

Is education about avalanche safety the answer?

 

[pais alto]

Short answer: No, education is not the answer. It is, however, an absolutely essential part to mitigating the risk.

BC skiing is a risk-inherent activity, you can’t do it without facing risk. Education can give you tools to mitigate the risk, experience and mentoring will give you more tools. But a key component is what you do with the tools. I had a pretty long career in wildfire suppression and management and associated aviation operations. It turns out that heuristics or human factors are very very important when it comes to risk mitigation. Here is a paper done on heuristics involved with recreational winter activities.

http://www.sunrockice.com/docs/Heuristic%20traps%20IM%202004.pdf

And an article that serves as a summary.

Human Factors in Avalanche Incidents : Articles : SummitPost

Human Factors in Avalanche Incidents : SummitPost.org : Climbing, hiking, mountaineering

www.summitpost.org

People looking for risk-free recreation would do well to avoid backcountry skiing.

 

[martyg]

You can be extremely well versed in a domain, but unless you exercise prudent decision making, it means nothing. By prudent, I mean engineering a path for the long-term outcome which provides the best ROI - as defined by the user.

I've written several articles on decision making, and consequences, in ski, paddling and business / entrepreneurial journals. My four go-to questions:

1. What are the moves to get from point A to point B?

2. Do I have the ability to make the moves?

3. What are the consequences if I don't?

4. Am I willing to accept the consequences?

My greatest joy in "The Four Questions' is how the participants in Brad Lunden's organization, First Descents, have embraced it. These are young adults with stage 4 cancer.

Add to that the unknown / unstable nature of snowpack. You can have a slope that 30 people have skied. One person hits that area where there might be a small, exposed rock, or that very slight convex surface that acts as a trigger point, and it all goes. You can also dig a pit, change your aspect by 50', and get totally different results. It is a very, very dynamic environment.

Sometime, despite all of the education and all of the prudent planning, in avalanche terrain you are the person that pokes the dragon in the eye.

But to answer your question, my feeling is yes. In the PNW I had ski partners who were prudent snow professionals. I felt very safe BC skiing with them. In SW CO, very few that I have come in contact with have had formalized education. When they show me pics of their days out, I just shutter. They are temping death on every trip based on the objective hazards that I see in their photos: skiing / skinning below cornices / no thought to who might be up there to trigger an avy, huge terrain traps, skiing wind loaded slopes, etc.

They learned all that they need to kmow about avalanche safety by watching YouTube. Rest assured, I will never ski with them - because I don't want to be buried and have to rely in their skills and judgement to get me out alive. Every time we have a big day, and I know that they are going out, I expect a wife to walk over to our place and tell us that XXXX was killed in an avalanche today.

Great topic.

 

[martyg]

Short answer: No, education is not the answer. It is, however, an absolutely essential part to mitigating the risk.

BC skiing is a risk-inherent activity, you can’t do it without facing risk. Education can give you tools to mitigate the risk, experience and mentoring will give you more tools. But a key component is what you do with the tools. I had a pretty long career in wildfire suppression and management and associated aviation operations. It turns out that heuristics or human factors are very very important when it comes to risk mitigation. Here is a paper done on heuristics involved with recreational winter activities.

http://www.sunrockice.com/docs/Heuristic%20traps%20IM%202004.pdf

And an article that serves as a summary.

Human Factors in Avalanche Incidents : Articles : SummitPost

Human Factors in Avalanche Incidents : SummitPost.org : Climbing, hiking, mountaineering

www.summitpost.org

People looking for risk-free recreation would do well to avoid backcountry skiing.

I like what you said.

See my post. I guess it goes to prudent decisions making. Those who would reluctantly take a course probably wouldn't have the wherewithall to objectively apply the parameters of what they learned, and let that direct their descion makinhg process. Most catastrophic events, from compromised Mlitary missions to failed financial planning, are a result of several poor decisions being made.

 

[Pdub]

I am not a backcountry skier but I have studied it and follow the Utah Avalanche Center forecasts nearly daily. I have also read Bruce Tremper's Staying Alive in Avalanche Terrain cover to cover. Great book.

The reason I am not a backcountry skier is exactly because I have studied it and follow the daily forecasts. Some of the worst accidents and fatalities happen to those with the most experience and expertise. I think that learning avalanche science can give a false sense of security and unjustified confidence. Mother nature eventually wins. She is so unpredictable.

I purchased AT gear, skins, a shovel, and all the accoutrements a few years ago, planning to join my friends in the backcountry on my annual Utah ski trip. The day before we arrived, our very experienced leader was caught in a slide and snapped his femur. he was on a purportedly safe slope in moderate risk conditions, but a slide on a steeper slope well above him broke and took him out. I put my new gear up on EBay and sold it before I left. Never looked back.

There are so many pitfalls in predicting risk in real time. These include
-overconfidence in risk assessment
-group think/peer pressure
-old or inaccurate information
-bad luck
-hubris

Yet from what I have read it is possible to be safe in the backcountry IF YOU NEVER go out when the risk is above moderate, you never ski or skin up a terrain trap, you never ski on or below a slope greater than 30 degree , etc...

Too many ifs for me. I love resort skiing and and I have a wife and kids. Just made no sense.

 

[martyg]

As a friendly addition to Pais' post, I add this. It is humerus, but there is a lot of truth to it.

In the kayak courses that I teach I often tell students, "Don't do X. Do you know why?" They will give an assortment of answers. And then I tell them, "Because if you do X, others will laugh at you."

"Dress like an idiot, wear a ballerina skirt and Barbie backpack, or a penguin suit. It would be really embarrassing if Something Happened while you were already making a fool of yourself, and since people fear embarrassment more than avalanches, your Heuristics should improve by leaps and bounds."

The Jaded Local: Hubristics | POWDER Magazine

Which leads us to Hubristics. The science of the effect of cameras, free goggles, sex, cocaine, and other Incentives on Heuristic Factors In Avalanche Terrain. In other words, the things you think about immediately before shrugging and saying (out loud or otherwise), “Fuck it.”

www.powder.com

 

[Yo Momma]

I think education is a major component in the overall group of equations. As I mentioned in the other post, understanding how you react to peer pressure, being centered enough to stand your ground and not be pulled into questionable decisions all while having the wherewithal to know how to drop that paradigm when lives depend on your guide's instructions as the emergency has already happened.... So complex, yet so simple in the face of Mother Nature to just let it all go at any given moment... if you have not made Peace within, and you're not willing to surrender your life to her at any given moment, this is not your game... as w/ kiteboarding this is life at the edge of the envelope. The real strength lies in being able to say "No, that is not for me!"

 

[martyg]

"he was on a purportedly safe slope in moderate risk conditions, but a slide on a steeper slope well above him broke and took him out.

That says it all. He may have been experience, but exercised poor judgement. The slope that I am on is most often less of a concern for me, than what is going on above me.

At Mt. Baker Ski Area we had a side country run that had a skin track which traversed below an area of objective danger. One winter, it went. Body #1 was not recovered until summer. Body #2 was not recovered until two summers later, with the aid of sonar.

 

[martyg]

I think education is a major component in the overall group of equations. As I mentioned in the other post, understanding how you react to peer pressure, being centered enough to stand your ground and not be pulled into questionable decisions all while having the wherewithal to know how to drop that paradigm when lives depend on your guide's instructions as the emergency has already happened. So complex, yet so simple in the face of Mother Nature to just let it all go at any given moment... if you have not made Peace within, and you're not willing to surrender your life to her at any given moment, this is not your game...

Well said.

In the 90's we lost a number of very good paddlers. Prior to that, if you were not comfortable running a drop with objective consequences, you were ridiculed. After that period, if you walked a drop, the comments were more along the lines of, "Great decision. Let me know how I can help."

IME, most skiers / riders have not reached that maturation point. If the community had, we wouldn't have to be centered enough to stand our ground. Our decision would be respected.

 

[Andy Mink]

In this thread, the question comes up: Do skiers/boarders take more risks while wearing a helmet because they feel safer? Would they ski the same line without a helmet? I am not a bc skier so I was curious as to whether educated bc skiers are more likely to take a risk because they are educated. It seems they would be because someone with no avalanche education would most likely not even be in the area. How much does education usually trump the thrill of fresh tracks in a potentially dangerous area?

 

[Winks]

In this thread, the question comes up: Do skiers/boarders take more risks while wearing a helmet because they feel safer? Would they ski the same line without a helmet? I am not a bc skier so I was curious as to whether educated bc skiers are more likely to take a risk because they are educated. It seems they would be because someone with no avalanche education would most likely not even be in the area. How much does education usually trump the thrill of fresh tracks in a potentially dangerous area?

I think about the question quite often @Andy Mink does education make people take greater risks? I can see those that are uneducated about a particular area of skiing would be less inclined to take risks as they are usually worried about staying safe and following the rules. Based on my own experience I still do not take as large of risk or even explore as much as I can being Avalanche and Backcountry versed. That being said I want to make sure I am skiing with people I know and trust and would react if something ever did happen.

 

[jmeb]

There are so many pitfalls in predicting risk in real time. These include
-overconfidence in risk assessment
-group think/peer pressure
-old or inaccurate information
-bad luck
-hubris

A critical one is missing about why those with the most learning and experience often meet tragic ends:
- spend the most amount of time recreating in and around avalanche terrain.

 

[Analisa]

Yes and no. If you put 20 skiers through an AIARE 1 course and followed them through their next year of backcountry travel, you'd likely find 20 different tendencies when it comes to risk management. Education is like learning about all your options for personal finance and a warning to definitely stay away from Vegas (high & extreme avy conditions) if your goals are to come out in the black. And like finances, there are some universally good & bad decisions, but there are some choices that work for some and not for others. For example, I have terrible spacial awareness, so a circumnavigation tour with a lot of slope aspects to keep track of are riskier for me than most of the skiers I know.

As for having lots of examples of experienced skiers dying in avalanches, there are a couple things to consider:
1. The flip side of being experienced is that you have to spend a lot of time in avalanche terrain, and people who get out more often are more likely to see the value of more coursework. That’s more time to be unlucky
2. When professionals die, the news travels farther.

I think the best argument for avalanche education is comprehensive sex ed. Sure, in either case, abstinence is the only guarantee of a positive outcome, but if you are going to engage in the activity, the more you know about the risks and your mitigation options, the more likely participants are able to manage them successfully.

 

[Yo Momma]

often meet tragic ends:

One persons "Tragic" is another's "Beautiful". It's all relative. I've always told my Dad that if I die skiing, snowmobiling, kiteboarding... don't you dare cry for me! Have a big party bec I'm going w/ a smile on my face!

 

[Rod9301]

I think a lot depends on where you ski.

Colorado, Utah, you deal with buried layers. Which are completely unpredictable.

California, you deal with wind slabs. Which are a lot more predictable. And they heal quickly.

If i lived in Colorado, i would not ski any steep terrain over 25 degrees in the winter. If there is a buried weak layer which is most of the time

I'm California or Pyrénées, where i am now, i can always find steep places to ski. Almost always.

 

[SBrown]

I think a lot depends on where you ski.

Colorado, Utah, you deal with buried layers. Which are completely unpredictable.

California, you deal with wind slabs. Which are a lot more predictable. And they heal quickly.

If i lived in Colorado, i would not ski any steep terrain over 25 degrees in the winter. If there is a buried weak layer which is most of the time

I'm California or Pyrénées, where i am now, i can always find steep places to ski. Almost always.

Unfortunately this is very true. And the reason I have skied more backcountry out of my home state than inside it.

 

[Tom Holtmann]

I think most (but not all) people that engage in risky activities want to know, to the extent possible, how much risk they are exposing themselves to and what, if any, means they can take to mitigate that risk. The only way to be able to do these two things is through education, mentorship and experience. It truly is a tragedy if people die because of ignorance.

Once you know these things you can still make mistakes in process and in judgement. Some of the more infamous accidents involving pros seemed to involve failures in both of these areas. Which is just a reminder to even the most experienced that everyone makes mistakes and not to get careless.

On the other hand, sometimes people die because they are willing to put themselves in a risky situation that they know is risky and they have decided that they are prepared to live with that risk. They do the right things, they have the right training, they make the right decisions but they are in a very dangerous environment where small mistakes can be magnified and where you can just get unlucky. The same holds for climbers, hang gliders, race car drivers, downhill skiers, big mountain skiers ect. ect. These skiers don't want to die but for whatever reason have more tolerance for risk.

So honestly know who you are, what you know and don't know and why you are doing it. That's about all you can do.

 

[Slim]

This is a very important issue that many people in the avalanche industry are trying to get a handle on.
The phrasing in the title is a little bit off however. People taking risks is not the issue, that’s personal freedom.
The goal of avalanche education is to give people the tools to make decisions that are consistent with their personal values. Just like some people choose to go basejumping and others stick to chess, some wish to take risks and others don’t, it‘s goal is not to make them take more or less risk.

The proper question is: does (more)avalanche education lead to better decision making?
As accidents with highly educated groups show, certainly not as much as we would hope.
At the same time, just because some educated people still die, doesn’t mean the education is not having an effect. After all, seatbelts save lives, but some people wearing them still die.

I think the biggest challenges we face are figuring out tools to defeat the common heuristic traps.
Step one is acknowledging them, which at this point everyone does.
Step two has just begun, which is developing and teaching tools to combat them.
I am hopeful, that with the attention given this issue, more and better tools will become available.

If you truly are interested in this question, and want to keep up and help spread research in this area, please join the American Avalanche Association (if you are in the US, pick your national organization if somewhere else):

Membership — American Avalanche Association

www.americanavalancheassociation.org

 

[Tom Holtmann]

This is a very important issue that many people in the avalanche industry are trying to get a handle on.
The phrasing in the title is a little bit off however. People taking risks is not the issue, that’s personal freedom.
The goal of avalanche education is to give people the tools to make decisions that are consistent with their personal values. Just like some people choose to go basejumping and others stick to chess, some wish to take risks and others don’t, it‘s goal is not to make them take more or less risk.

The proper question is: does (more)avalanche education lead to better decision making?
As accidents with highly educated groups show, certainly not as much as we would hope.
At the same time, just because some educated people still die, doesn’t mean the education is not having an effect. After all, seatbelts save lives, but some people wearing them still die.

I think the biggest challenges we face are figuring out tools to defeat the common heuristic traps.
Step one is acknowledging them, which at this point everyone does.
Step two has just begun, which is developing and teaching tools to combat them.
I am hopeful, that with the attention given this issue, more and better tools will become available.

If you truly are interested in this question, and want to keep up and help spread research in this area, please join the American Avalanche Association (if you are in the US, pick your national organization if somewhere else):

Membership — American Avalanche Association

www.americanavalancheassociation.org

We all know people that are highly educated or skilled that have terrible judgement that in some cases can mitigate their developed abilities. Certainly the emphasis on the psychology of decision making as it applies to backcountry travel is a step in the right direction and will help alot of people make better decisions. But it is almost impossible to teach good judgement. That's a life skill (and by that I mean a life-time skill). I would think that the best way to really develop good judgement in the BC is mentorship. Pick your partners/teachers carefully if they are really good they lead you toward good judgement.

 

[crgildart]

Ask your life insurance agent.. There are probably actuarial tables that weigh back country risks and records of how many back country avalanche training instructor clients have been killed out there by avalanches. I'd be willing to bet that the simple fact that folks with training and who train others are out there more frequently even with their better trained judgement are still more likely to be killed simply due to their frequency out there.