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IKON Pass Announces Current Plans for Winter 2020-2021

fatbob

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So looks like JHMR fixed the previous infinite logic loop problem but still without clarity. 9 November is still a LOOOONG way away for people wanting to make plans for Xmas & New Year (as I have in the past been WRT JHMR). Yeah yeah .....I know planning in a COVID year is for suckers......


Vail at least have been clear ("don't make any bets on us beyond 7 days") , Ikon still mired in a bog of "at this time no " and "yes reservations required but we can't tell you the rules or any data related to that game".


Re- reading the statements I'm not sure they are much more than statements that we are making a statement and the world is unknown. Maybe passholders can take a crumb of comfort that whatever ensues the "intent" isn't to sacrifice them for day passes. Where they control that decision, which clearly isn't at partner resorts.
 

Ron

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personally, I'm ok with the IKON release to the extent that its too early for specifics. We already know there will be reservations required at some resorts but hey, lets just cut them a little slack until they get some actual ski days under their belt and adjust as needed, I still dont know how they plan to do this at Xmas or other peak times without masses of people at the base area. Time will tell. I am also still waiting to hear if they consider a 7 day pass the same as my unrestricted pass.
 

fatbob

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But they could be telling us more like at what capacity they are expecting resorts to operate and an example using past data of sample low/mid/high demand days and how the system would flex. It would enable people to get a bit of a grip on the future.

Something like

Resort X
Capacity 50
Anticipated capacity 25

Low/mid/high demand 15/30/50

If mid demand day (based on historical analysis) all passholders get honoured no day tickets sold in advance or until 10am

If high demand day - the following rules are followed to determine access: .........
 

Ron

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I agree but Im not sure they know what the numbers will look like until people start to show up.
 

fatbob

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So.. about 1/3 of the resorts are either still trying to decide about reservations (or will require reservations), and the rest are not requiring them "at this time"? Is that the message?
I agree but Im not sure they know what the numbers will look like until people start to show up.

They have some decent macro data based on Ikon passes sold to date vs history and can surely get data from partner resorts on their season pass sales. And they sure as hell know what demand was on first Friday after MLK for the last X years.They could even tell us they intend to categorize days on a traffic light model for instance :

Green low demand day - probably a good bet
Yellow mid demand day - some restrictions which may impact you but generally you'll get to ski plenty
Red high demand day - Likely X & Y restrictions, plan if you can to avoid

Now traffic lights might of course change on specific days as better forecasting data emerges through the season and the existence of lights might itself change behaviours
 
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jmeb

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A constant refrain I'm seeing in this thread is "they've got reams of data, they can forecast this."

I agree with the first part. The latter part is nothing better than speculation at this point. Accurate prediction requires a set of assumptions that verify. 2020 has been the year of blowing up assumptions.

I've been building demand models for a decade for variety of programs. Typically with decent results. This year I've been consistently wrong in both directions.

Seems reasonable that they will know which days are likely high vs low. But the base rate of visitation...who knows. And could change drastically within a week.
 

Ron

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Seems reasonable that they will know which days are likely high vs low. But the base rate of visitation...who knows. And could change drastically within a week.

agree. who really knows how many may actually show up or how much space is really needed. Yes, we know Xmas will be higher but how much higher? will people cooperate or be science deniers and not comply requiring fewer people.
 

jmeb

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What percentage of families will give up if hot food and warm lodges aren't available this season?

How many bros whose beer at the bar to laps ratio is 1:1 will say F* it and stay home?

There will be skiing. My van will still have oatmeal made in the morning before skiing pow laps behind @Ron 's house.
 

tball

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But they could be telling us more like at what capacity they are expecting resorts to operate...
At least in Colorado, it's pretty clear the resorts don't yet know their capacity limitations.

All reports are negotiations with the government are still ongoing. Based on the roll-out of previous public health orders, I expect there will be a news conference with the governor when the details are finalized.

It also seems resorts will need to be flexible and ready to further reduce capacity based on the viral activity and behavior of skiers. If the ski resorts turn into party towns or lodges are overcrowded, expect to see resort capacity restricted even more.

That's my speculation based on closely following how it's worked with other public health orders here in Colorado.
 

JWMN

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I have not seen anything on this, and am wondering if it will still be valid?

25% OFF FOR FRIENDS & FAMILY
Adventure better together with 10 lift tickets at 25% off of the window rate, at participating destinations.
 

David Chaus

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I would think the number of available flights to Denver and SLC during the last 2 weeks of December and early January would be an indication of how much holiday peak skier traffic there might be.
 

jmeb

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40.473376, -106.846027

Yep yep. North facing is nice. Mellow but pretty consistent looking. No trouble to get in. It's private property but I assume I can just claim "I'm with Ron".

The East facing shots from there down to the river also look $$$.
 

jmeb

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no, it public land owned by the city. merges into Howelson ski hill and my back porch. :)

Nice! It's doesn't come up on "public lands" layers in CalTopo which often miss local govt ownership.
007S.jpg
 

Ron

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so, what percent grade is that? And, dont think you are going up there without me. It will be a Protest-fest. :) My wife has offered to break trail for us.
 

jmeb

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so, what percent grade is that? And, dont think you are going up there without me. It will be a Protest-fest. :) My wife has offered to break trail for us.

The meadow is mellow -- around 10-14%. The meadow to the east is between 17-26 (it's a DEM layer I built for finding sub-avy terrain). Both skiable though the meadow would be better with a 4-6" rather than a foot.
 

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