How will Skiing be Different in the '20-'21 Season?

[NOIP]

Generalizations, other experts say more than 5 or 10 minutes. There have also been documented cases of transmission outdoors (dig throgh the COVID19 and ski travel posts), even where the spreader and targets were moving around, walking together etc.. .. Lift corrals tend to be surrounded by buildings on 3 sides and the mountain on the other, out of the wind. Out on the mountain skiing risk is trivial but not impossible.

hence the not very transmissible

at the areas I ski, the lift lines are not protected by surrounding structures from wind and sun

of course there is going to be social distancing in the lift lines

the real issue for operators is skier spacing/conduct in the lodge

 

[Mike King]

Great questions!

The guidance for ski areas is forthcoming from the state of Colorado. This is why Aspen hasn't released an operating plan and isn't selling passes. At this point, it's all speculation. Hopefully, the ski areas that have announced operational plans have a lot more information than we do.

I think it's safe to assume if we get to "Stay-at-home," the ski areas will be shut down. That's at a positivity rate of 15%. Many states have been there, as Utah is now, for example.

The biggest question in my mind is what are the allowed capacities for ski areas at the three safer at home levels? On a different version of that chart, they have "Outdoor Recreation" at 50%, 50%, and 25% for the three levels.

A reasonable guess is ski areas will be restricted to the same capacities. I don't think legally or politically the ski industry can be less restricted than other similar industries in Colorado, particularly given the history and risk of visiting skiers spreading cases. We'll see.

A couple of things I've learned from management in the last week. It is incredibly complicated to put all of this together to allow skiing this season. It is a huge logistics and planning effort. It also is being done in a environment where some (a lot?) of the restrictions that may be imposed by government are still unknown. Aspen has evidently written thousands of pages of plans, but those plans will have to be adapted as the regulations are developed.

There are a number of industry groups who are collaborating to develop practices. There's a lot of attention being paid to Australia, what worked, and what might be improved upon from there.

In the case fo Aspen specifically, there are studies being done by outside firms to determine what the lift capacity is of each mountain. It's a delicate balance because you don't want to have the result where lift capacity because the constraint that causes a lack of social distancing in lift lines. Lots of issues to consider and to eventually arise at the capacity of each mountain.

There's a big effort to get everything as touches as possible. Online booking. Online food ordering. All lessons will require a reservation. That should make scheduling of instructors easier.

In Colorado, the restrictions the State and County may impose are only now starting to be discussed. Those authorities have had their hands full dealing with more immediate regulatory issues. So, expect that things will change as the results of the resort planning efforts, the industry best practices, and the regulatory agencies start to meet to lay out the immediate operating plans. And as conditions change, we can expect those to change as well.

Mike

 

[tball]

It's baffling that Colorado ski areas are making any season pass promises in this ^^^ environment. Good for Aspen for trying to understand what their product is before they sell it.

 

[Sibhusky]

There are lots of other things happening that are just as sketchy or more. The mechanic that gets in the car you just got out of to take it for a test drive.. troubleshoot stuff.. change your oil.. then pulls the car around when finished and you get in it right after they got out of it.. in the rain so all the windows were up. People coming in to your house to repair plumbing or electric, the exterminator.. all without fully legit N95 masks.

Riding in elevators anywhere..

I'm good with the risk outdoors compared to those..

I told them I'd pick up the car the next day and I had them keep it over night on their back lot. Then I opened all the doors and windows for 7-8 minutes before getting in. Then I drove home with a mask on and the windows open. Then I didn't drive it for a week. The benefits of being retired.

Nothing indoors is being inspected or repaired. When my daughter came, all windows in the house were open (brrr) and we all kept our masks on and tried to stay six feet (or 20 ft) away. It was exhausting. I went to bed at 8PM because I was worn out and chilled. She was there to move her stuff out of her old room into a room with its own exit. We had to do this before the snow comes and I don't want to have all the windows open. I'm thinking of giving them a hot plate and electric pan when they visit. We might even have a spare microwave.

 

[geepers]

One of the more painful lessons is loading a fixed grip chair with no assistance.

They bumped fixed grip hairs in Australia. Probably the closest skier/liftie interaction is with Tbars - lots of those in Vail's Perisher. Mostly not possible to ride without a liftie pulling down the T and placing it for the rider/s.

Add in that there will be no instructors picking up your 4/5/6 year old and riding safely right next to them on the lift either.

Correct. Lifties were not supposed to assist loading little ones either although I did see it happen.

I did get asked by one Dad to ride a T with one of his kids! Not sure the concept of social distancing had taken hold there.

 

[Olesya C]

Generalizations, other experts say more than 5 or 10 minutes. There have also been documented cases of transmission outdoors (dig throgh the COVID19 and ski travel posts), even where the spreader and targets were moving around, walking together etc.. .. Lift corrals tend to be surrounded by buildings on 3 sides and the mountain on the other, out of the wind. Out on the mountain skiing risk is trivial but not impossible.

Not very many instances of transmission outdoors though. My understanding the few cases it happened it was prolonged close contact with people talking without a mask. I need to find the specific articles though because I only saw generic non-scientific overview. If distancing and mask wearing are adhered to most likely the risk is low IMHO.

 

[PlainsSkier]

If people are wearing masks in lift lines, the chance of getting covid are extremely low, to the point where it doesn't even concern me. Gondolas or trams would be a bigger issue but even there if you have people following the rules with masks/distancing it is a minimal amount of time.

Indoor areas and especially bars are where the super spreading occurs. I kind of feel bad for resorts because they could do it all perfectly but people in a small county packing bars/facilities that are not controlled by the ski resort could create an outbreak that could shut everything down anyway.

 

[nay]

Clearly you haven't been out and about much.

Talking about the order, not compliance.

 

[nay]

It's baffling that Colorado ski areas are making any season pass promises in this ^^^ environment. Good for Aspen for trying to understand what their product is before they sell it.

A-Basin already implemented and has data. I don’t see any reason they can’t rinse and repeat as a worst case. They suspended certain pass sales and set a cap on their passholder products. I’d say they have done the math. Easier with 5 lifts than 30.

There are really only 3 on mountain metrics in play:

1) reduced capacity/closure for dining areas/lodges/warming;

2) socially distanced lift riding;

3) socially distanced lift lines.

We’ve heard about all of these:

1) closed or 50% capacity by state order;

2) reduced capacity except with people you know (this is easily violated);

3) a socially distanced corral holds about a 15% of a packed corral? Lenawee full capacity was about 25 skiers, and a lot of chairs were empty.

I think to what @Mike King posted, the combo of 2 & 3 is the math that equals total capacity. Higher numbers of lifts radically increase complexity. Think about getting out of the Vail back bowls vs. out of lift 8 at Loveland. Not remotely the same thing, and how do you control movement that happens all at once as terrain closes early?

Is max capacity defined by known traffic chokes on certain mountains? Think A-Basin would like to have Norway back this year? I’d sell my chair back to them for $2,500

One of two things has to happen to manage #3. Either you drastically cut daily capacity so that even ‘herding’ doesn’t lead to corral swarms or you limit access to mountain areas that choke back to common points. Or it’s ok for us to pack in lift lines but not sit together on chairs.

 

[jmeb]

We’ve heard about all of these:

1) closed or 50% capacity by state order;

2) reduced capacity except with people you know (this is easily violated);

3) a socially distanced corral holds about a 15% of a packed corral? Lenawee full capacity was about 25 skiers, and a lot of chairs were empty.

To be clear though -- none of these are in any state or local public health orders yet. They are potential hypotheticals that ski areas expect some variation of.

 

[crgildart]

A-Basin already implemented and has data. I don’t see any reason they can’t rinse and repeat as a worst case. They suspended certain pass sales and set a cap on their passholder products. I’d say they have done the math. Easier with 5 lifts than 30.

There are really only 3 on mountain metrics in play:

1) reduced capacity/closure for dining areas/lodges/war;

2) socially distanced lift riding;

3) socially distanced lift lines.

We’ve heard about all of these:

1) closed or 50% capacity by state order;

2) reduced capacity except with people you know (this is easily violated);

3) a socially distanced corral holds about a 15% of a packed corral? Lenawee full capacity was about 25 skiers, and a lot of chairs were empty.

I think to what @Mike King posted, the combo of 2 & 3 is the math that equals total capacity. Higher numbers of lifts radically increase complexity. Think about getting out of the Vail back bowls vs. out of lift 8 at Loveland. Not remotely the same thing, and how do you control movement that happens all at once as terrain closes early?

Is max capacity defined by known traffic chokes on certain mountains? Think A-Basin would like to have Norway back this year? I’d sell my chair back to them for $2,500

Parking... Shuttle buses for satellite lots are going to be more difficult or impossible to manage safely.

 

[ski otter 2]

First, A Basin announced before their re-opening last spring they would be running the lifts at a slower speed, so that the lifties would not have to assist. I could tell the lower lift ran slower. The upper one I couldn't tell as much, except that without assistance the way that lift used to be - fast and hard coming in, and slightly out of place for where people were - not sure most people could have handled it without more difficulty. Or even pain. Those slower lifts will lower mountain capacity, even as the four parking lots bring in more people, unless otherwise checked.

 

[ski otter 2]

To me, there are big differences in the details, in the ways the Frontrange areas are handling their Covid obstacles. Right now, to me, all the areas I think of going to, Epic, Alterra, A Basin and Loveland, are for the moment suspect in their announced and demonstrated lift line management, chair riding, and a number of other details, and in the ways they have run their summer programs, in the case of the Alterra areas at least - until I find out otherwise.

 

[Jerez]

Ya. We were thinking about parking ourselves in Winter Park for the season to be with family. But are now leaning to rolling over our pass and just staying in New Mexico -LA Nina be damned. If it is rock and shrub dodging and hard bumps all season, so be it. At least.it should hone some skills.

 

[jmeb]

Ya. We were thinking about parking ourselves in Winter Park for the season to be with family. But are now leaning to rolling over our pass and just staying in New Mexico -LA Nina be damned. If it is rock and shrub dodging and hard bumps all season, so be it. At least.it should hone some skills.

Not sure if you're interested in going uphill -- but parking a family in Fraser / Tabernash this winter, with passes to Winter Park + Bluebird could be a great once in a lifetime combo for ~$1k per person.

 

[Jerez]

Bluebird? I have visited family there for over 30 years but never heard of Bluebird.

 

[pchewn]

Bluebird? I have visited family there for over 30 years but never heard of Bluebird.

https://bluebirdbackcountry.com/

The new backcountry area near Rabbit Ears Pass

 

[jmeb]

Yep -- thanks @pchewn . Should've been clearer in my post.

 

[AlpsSkidad]

France (and much of Europe) seems to be taking a different tact than North America.... basically getting on with business as usual but with masks...

France Plans Near Normal Ski Centre Operations This Winter - The Whiteroom

Although stressing that anything could change, the body which represents most leading French ski resort, France Montagnes, has said they hope operations will be pretty normal this winter …but with masks on, social distancing, and a lot of cleaning and sanitising. In common with most...

www.snow-forecast.com

 

[sparty]

France (and much of Europe) seems to be taking a different tact than North America.... basically getting on with business as usual but with masks...

France Plans Near Normal Ski Centre Operations This Winter - The Whiteroom

Although stressing that anything could change, the body which represents most leading French ski resort, France Montagnes, has said they hope operations will be pretty normal this winter …but with masks on, social distancing, and a lot of cleaning and sanitising. In common with most...

www.snow-forecast.com

It will be interesting to see if (a) the current numbers trends in France continue towards the winter and (b) if that affects operational plan. With their mid-summer seven-day averages, a "let's all take simple precautions and figure we should be okay outside" seems to be fairly reasonable; with their per-capita case rate now above the confirmed case rate in the U.S., that doesn't look like as great a plan.

Putting it in local terms: the paper mill a couple of towns over from me just had an outbreak. Apparently the "mask mandate" was a little less of a mandate than it should have been. In a county of about 60k, we went from something like 12 active cases to 41 active cases as a result. Right now, it looks like that may still be containable (no reports of widespread community spread outside the one employer, at least yet). So—fingers crossed—it looks like we (as a community) will largely get away with it, despite there being a significant impact on some of the families affected.

I'm quite sure that's not the only local employer where a "mask mandate" uses an interesting definition of "mandate." So far, there haven't been any other significant impacts, but that's (IMO) largely a byproduct of the low case rate locally.

Bringing it back to the subject at hand, I think that ski areas—especially the corporate-owned entities—are well-aware that they can't become either a public-health problem, or even appear to be one. With a low-enough background rate, everyone gets a little more leeway, but as soon as case rates start increasing to the point where being able to ring around an outbreak and cut it off becomes impossible, public-health authorities are going to start pushing for everyone to take more care, and that's probably going to translate into more restrictions on businesses, as well.