How will Skiing be Different in the '20-'21 Season?

[nay]

I predicted this three years ago when I was still teaching. Snow days had become a stupid waste of a day when they were issued for an inch of snow, or in some cases, for a storm that never arrived. My state gave permission to districts to replace snow days with remote learning. Weirdly, most never did. I bet that will change now!

Never waste a crisis - all kinds of things that were too political before are business as usual now.

 

[jmeb]

How many of us have contemplated no lifties except to stop and start the lift? Wonder if they’ll tell you that before you buy your family vacation package?

I wouldn't make the assumption that just because this was Abasin's SOP in the spring, that it will be the SOP everywhere.

 

[tball]

^^^ Especially because there was very little terrain and only a couple lifts open.

It's going to be interesting to see it the allowed capacity at ski areas is determined by how many lifts are open and how that plays out early season. I suspect it will and we'll see a push to get lifts open like we've never seen before.

 

[crgildart]

How many of us have contemplated no lifties except to stop and start the lift? Wonder if they’ll tell you that before you buy your family vacation package?

I did. No way to safely bump chairs socially distant without an N95 mask for the liftees.

Add in that there will be no instructors picking up your 4/5/6 year old and riding safely right next to them on the lift either.

I'm good with self service chairs. Not the first time for me..

 

[Andy Mink]

You know who is going to suffer? Hotronics users with those big battery packs on the back of their boots right at the level of chairs busting the mount brackets.

Lesson number one when installing boot heater battery packs: put them on the outside of the boot if at all possible, not the back. Even with lifties you still get whacked!

 

[nay]

I wouldn't make the assumption that just because this was Abasin's SOP in the spring, that it will be the SOP everywhere.

I actually would make the assumption until I heard differently, if it mattered to me, such as having participants in my group who could not load a fixed grip chair without standard assistance. This was all done “working closely with state and county health officials”.

A liftie cannot remain at distance or protected with any kind of barrier (such as plexiglass for cashiers) except a mask in order to load a fixed grip, which puts them in close contact with pretty much every single customer.

It’s obviously possible we’ll have lifties taking that kind of exposure, but since variances are all done by formal request and approval, I wonder how it is justified to put that person both at risk and then in close contact with thousands and thousands of customers.

We don’t see that happening anywhere.

 

[Andy Mink]

I actually would make the assumption until I heard differently, if it mattered to me, such as having participants in my group who could not load a fixed grip chair without standard assistance. This was all done “working closely with state and county health officials”.

A liftie cannot remain at distance or protected with any kind of barrier (such as plexiglass for cashiers) except a mask in order to load a fixed grip, which puts them in close contact with pretty much every single customer.

It’s obviously possible we’ll have lifties taking that kind of exposure, but since variances are all done by formal request and approval, I wonder how it is justified to put that person both at risk and then in close contact with thousands and thousands of customers.

I could see lifties wearing some type of shield as opposed to a mask. Not sure how that'd work with fogging up though. In theory, at least the last one I saw, the masks on people are to protect other people. That's where folks in line are going to have to be diligent so those lifties are as protected as possible.

 

[crgildart]

I actually would make the assumption until I heard differently, if it mattered to me, such as having participants in my group who could not load a fixed grip chair without standard assistance. This was all done “working closely with state and county health officials”.

A liftie cannot remain at distance or protected with any kind of barrier (such as plexiglass for cashiers) except a mask in order to load a fixed grip, which puts them in close contact with pretty much every single customer.

It’s obviously possible we’ll have lifties taking that kind of exposure, but since variances are all done by formal request and approval, I wonder how it is justified to put that person both at risk and then in close contact with thousands and thousands of customers.

We don’t see that happening anywhere.

There are lots of other things happening that are just as sketchy or more. The mechanic that gets in the car you just got out of to take it for a test drive.. troubleshoot stuff.. change your oil.. then pulls the car around when finished and you get in it right after they got out of it.. in the rain so all the windows were up. People coming in to your house to repair plumbing or electric, the exterminator.. all without fully legit N95 masks.

Riding in elevators anywhere..

I'm good with the risk outdoors compared to those..

 

[jmeb]

The contact lifties realistically have is 1-3 seconds, while gloved and masked, at a distance of a couple of feet. That is not "close contact" as defined under CO public health orders which require more sustained contact.

Given there is no formal guidance issued by counties or the state to ski areas at this point, what happened at Abasin is just one indicator. I don't think there would be a formal appeal/variance for this. We know much more about exposure and surface transmission than we did in May.

 

[crgildart]

I could see lifties wearing some type of shield as opposed to a mask. Not sure how that'd work with fogging up though. In theory, at least the last one I saw, the masks on people are to protect other people. That's where folks in line are going to have to be diligent so those lifties are as protected as possible.

People are breathing on the liftee's arms (with just a buff) right before that same arm is in the next group's air space..

 

[tball]

It's obviously possible we'll have lifties taking that kind of exposure, but since variances are all done by formal request and approval, I wonder how it is justified to put that person both at risk and then in close contact with thousands and thousands of customers.

We don't see that happening anywhere.

I was surprised I saw it yesterday at the entrance screening at the University of Colorado Hospital as I was there for some follow up appointments. I believe they only had two entrances open for the enormous hospital, outpatient building, and cancer center.

Amazingly, the screeners were only wearing surgical masks. No eye coverings, or N95s, just a standard surgical mask.

There were two screeners at my entrance. They took folks temperatures and asked a handful of COVID screening questions that took 15-20 seconds. Again, just with a surgical mask, and this was indoors. They must screen thousands of people a day.

I think the ski areas can probably bump chairs. We've learned a lot about the virus since the A-basin reopening.

 

[nay]

I'm good with the risk outdoors compared to those..

Me, too.

I’m just pointing out that in order for lift lines to be socially distanced they have to be single file, 6 feet apart, with an empty corral separating active corrals (like the Lenawee pic) or very wide corrals where there is a lot of extra space side to side (like the Black Mountain Express pic).

There is no way to manage social distancing without a corral, so they will either a) need to get wider/longer where space permits or b) not overloaded by max daily capacity. I think this is the least denominator that creates total daily capacity, and is far below parking constraints - I have no idea why anybody would have customers show up and be turned away for parking instead of limited access. Or it won’t matter because these are just paper rules to be broken (never make a rule you can’t break).

Same thing with lifties. This kind of contact is an issue that pretty obviously has to be overcome, and likely approved, as a variance. What we saw at A-Basin isn’t automatically SOP for this season, but literally nothing has changed in those three months other than we pretty much know that transmission occurs by aerosols, and that’s worse than what we knew back in March. It’s quite the reason we are all wearing masks, or should be.

 

[nay]

I think the ski areas can probably bump chairs. We've learned a lot about the virus since the A-basin reopening.

We keep saying “we’ve learned a lot” and it’s led to all of us wearing masks at all times when in any kind of transactional contact. In other words, we are more restrictive now than we were in early June when Safer at Home was also in effect (that started on my birthday in late April).

Literally nothing has been rolled back. Nothing. That’s why you are getting your temp taken with restricted capacity access and both of you wearing masks.

Doesn’t mean a liftie wearing a mask and a skier wearing a mask isn’t fine or won’t be fully in place. Does make for interesting assumptions when buying skier pass products if such things might affect ones use of such pass products.

I’m not a chicken little type. I am a WYSIWYG type unless I am specifically informed otherwise, and I’ve found that intuitive compass generally points true north.

 

[tball]

My kids are playing soccer this fall and it was shutdown in the spring. Lots of outdoor recreation took place this summer and the virus remained at low levels.

Then the college kids went back to school. Ski areas in counties with a college may have a tough time.

Boulder County accounted for 1 of every 5 new coronavirus cases in Colorado last week:

Colorado’s COVID-19 cases rise for third week to reach highest levels since early August

The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment reported 3,439 cases of the new coronavirus in the week ending Sunday, an increase of about 1,100 cases over the previous week.

www.denverpost.com

 

[jmeb]

I suspect that if folks expect the initial SOPs to look like Abasin's in the spring, that they are in for a surprise. To start, I imagine it will be a good bit looser.

Not saying that is right, wrong or otherwise. Just what I am seeing based on summer operations and what I'm hearing from elsewhere.

 

[crgildart]

We keep saying “we’ve learned a lot” and it’s led to all of us wearing masks at all times when in any kind of transactional contact. In other words, we are more restrictive now than we were in early June when Safer at Home was also in effect (that started on my birthday in late April).

Clearly you haven't been out and about much.

 

[NOIP]

covid is not very transmissible in the outdoors. the common assumption is a half hour indoors in close proximity with low air movement to someone that is shedding/virulent

wind and UV seem to break it down move it out very quickly

 

[Seldomski]

Colorado skiers should probably become familiar with the new COVID Dashboard Dial the state rolled out this week:

View attachment 110546

I don't think it's a coincidence the state created this during the development of the ski area operating plans. I suspect the Dial will be integral to those plans, and the skier capacity allowed at each ski area is being specified for each of the three "Safer at Home" levels.

You can see the current status of each county here:

COVID19 | Department of Public Health & Environment

covid19.colorado.gov

@nay it looks like Gunnison is one of the few counties currently in the green "Protect our Neighbors" level. The current viral metrics define the current level, so presumably, variances are not necessary for expanded capacity.

Details about Colorado's new COVID Dial:

How does this relate to skiing? What is a ski resort? Is it an "Outdoor event?" So I guess 50% 'capacity' (whatever that is) unless 'Stay-at-home' is activated, which might cause the lifts to stop spinning?

 

[crgildart]

covid is not very transmissible in the outdoors. the common assumption is a half hour indoors in close proximity with low air movement to someone that is shedding/virulent

wind and UV seem to break it down move it out very quickly

Generalizations, other experts say more than 5 or 10 minutes. There have also been documented cases of transmission outdoors (dig throgh the COVID19 and ski travel posts), even where the spreader and targets were moving around, walking together etc.. .. Lift corrals tend to be surrounded by buildings on 3 sides and the mountain on the other, out of the wind. Out on the mountain skiing risk is trivial but not impossible.

 

[tball]

How does this relate to skiing? What is a ski resort? Is it an "Outdoor event?" So I guess 50% 'capacity' (whatever that is) unless 'Stay-at-home' is activated, which might cause the lifts to stop spinning?

Great questions!

The guidance for ski areas is forthcoming from the state of Colorado. This is why Aspen hasn't released an operating plan and isn't selling passes. At this point, it's all speculation. Hopefully, the ski areas that have announced operational plans have a lot more information than we do.

I think it's safe to assume if we get to "Stay-at-home," the ski areas will be shut down. That's at a positivity rate of 15%. Many states have been there, as Utah is now, for example.

The biggest question in my mind is what are the allowed capacities for ski areas at the three safer at home levels? On a different version of that chart, they have "Outdoor Recreation" at 50%, 50%, and 25% for the three levels.

A reasonable guess is ski areas will be restricted to the same capacities. I don't think legally or politically the ski industry can be less restricted than other similar industries in Colorado, particularly given the history and risk of visiting skiers spreading cases. We'll see.