How will Skiing be Different in the '20-'21 Season?

[Mike King]

Season passes are on sale. There are a few ski areas that have reopened, with restrictions on the number of folk who can visit and with social distancing measures in place. Clearly, we cannot know what conditions will be like at the start of the Northern Hemisphere's next ski season, but perhaps we can discuss what the changes might arise and what they may entail for our decisions between now and then?

Here's where I will start. I can't see what the benefit is of buying a season pass is now. It seems to me that it is not only possible, but probable that ski resorts will have to put limits on the number of visitors on any day. So, what does a season pass provide you with? If there are limits on the number of visitors, it seems that the pass does not provide unlimited skiing. And if it doesn't provide assured skiing at specific resorts, what is the value of the multi-resort pass?

It also seems to me that there will be far fewer people that will chose to ski next season. Fears of exposure will limit some from visiting at all, and the restrictions on lift operations and dining will probably reduce demand as well. Will those two factors alone be sufficient to ration demand to be less than the visitation caps that are likely to be present?

If there are visitation caps, how will they be fulfilled? By a lottery system? We see how that's operating at A-Basin. How will someone be able to plan a visit if the lottery system only operates a few days ahead? And how do you deal with changes in plans? Folk who have a reservation, but chose not to ski, or fall ill, or become injured/etc. Will there arise hybrid systems -- a reservation system with a lottery system on top?

Can people buy an assured visitation spot? Perhaps season passes become defunct, but perhaps there is a more expensive, but limited quantity seat license? Or do folk buying a private lesson have an assured spot?

It seems likely to me that the resort economies are going to royally tanked as a result of this. There's no way that the historic business volume will return anytime soon. Hotels, short term rentals, restaurants, shops, and the housing market, it seems to me, are all likely to suffer a significant recession/depression.

As a peak part time instructor, I'm pretty sure I will not have much work next season if I even have a job.

Lots of questions. What do you all think?

 

[crgildart]

Will ski areas be open in 2021 --partially--fully--or maybe not really

Hello--All; I hope you are all well and safe during this difficult time. As you all know-- there's been a lot of talk about how and when we'll open the country back up; when will we send children back to school, attend sporting events and so on.. I've checked the online universe and have...

www.pugski.com

 

[Rich McP]

As a peak part time instructor, I'm pretty sure I will not have much work next season if I even have a job.

This is what I've been wondering. Unless I bring my own clients, I can't imagine getting any work. And like you said, I won't be surprised if I'm (all of us PT folks) not even offered a job.

 

[Fuller]

The virus will magically disappear, it will snow every night, it won't be crowded and the lifts will never break down. Texans and New Yorkers will be stopped at the border but Floridians will only have to pay half. No snowboarders and no moguls, all your moguls - gone.

 

[KingGrump]

The virus will magically disappear, it will snow every night, it won't be crowded and the lifts will never break down. Texans and New Yorkers will be stopped at the border but Floridians will only have to pay half. No snowboarders and no moguls, all your moguls - gone.

I am glad I don't ski where you like to ski.
Just imagine, a ski area without moguls. It's like vanilla ice cream all day, everyday. I will probably fall asleep while skiing.
Not to mention the Texans. They will be bombing down every groomer out there. We will have to hire a lot more people to hold their beer.

I am just wondering what have moguls ever done to you for you to hate them so much.
I always ski with the mantra, "Moguls are our friend."

 

[skibum4ever]

Moguls were my friends when I was younger. Since my knee replacement, not so much.

 

[geepers]

For the 2020 season my main resort, Thredbo, has eliminated season passes. Can get either a refund of a credit. The resort will operate 50% normal capacity. Everyone has to buy day passes online in advance (no walk-up sales) which will be sold until daily quota reached. Some discounts have been removed (eg kids ski free, 1st timer packages) but multi-day discounts will be available and there will be additional discounts after purchase of 10, 15, 20 days within the season. A certain number of the daily quota will be reserved for the people who had already purchased a season pass but they still have to make a day pass purchase.

Lifts will operate at reduced capacity. 2 on a quad chair, 1 on a t-bar, 2 in a gondola cabin. Ski school will offer private lessons only - no group lessons. No kids programs, no race programs, no crowd-making events.

There is no ban on moguls.

 

[Mike King]

@geepers are you teaching there?

 

[KingGrump]

Moguls were my friends when I was younger. Since my knee replacement, not so much.

You don't need knees to ski moguls. Come to Taos for a ski week. They will show you how.

 

[mister moose]

Just imagine, a ski area without moguls. It's like vanilla ice cream all day, everyday. I will probably fall asleep while skiing.
Not to mention the Texans. They will be bombing down every groomer out there. We will have to hire a lot more people to hold their beer.

This is gold, Jerry, Gold!

 

[Tricia]

I am just wondering what have moguls ever done to you for you to hate them so much.
I always ski with the mantra, "Moguls are our friend."

Moguls are not obsticals. They are opportunities.
~ Weems

 

[geepers]

@geepers are you teaching there?

No.

 

[Ski&ride]

The resort will operate 50% normal capacity.

How exactly are “normal capacity” defined?

 

[Johnny V.]

Glad I can ski during the week..............show up at 10:30 so the really old folks are off the hill and ski until mid afternoon................

Seriously, it's gonna be weird if things are the way they are now. No locker room chat, no beer league racing, no talking with your friends on the chair...........and this is just at the local hill. Undecided about the IKON-fortunately I can put off the decision for a couple more weeks.

 

[geepers]

How exactly are “normal capacity” defined?

I assume they've got some figure in mind based on lift capacity plus adjustments. But that info wasn't published. My guess is there's a reasonable chance of getting a slot mid-week, especially in shoulder season but weekends (and probably Friday) is going to be a bun fight.

Undecided about the IKON-fortunately I can put off the decision for a couple more weeks.

Thredbo is part IKON and The Mountain Collective. They are not going to honor those passes this season and have suggested holders contact the pass providers. At this stage there's little chance of international skiers reaching Australia as borders are closed so it probably won't affect too many people.

Vail Resorts own 3 of the Australian ski resorts (Perisher, Hotham and Falls Creek) and have yet to announce their intentions.

 

[Ken_R]

Season passes are on sale. There are a few ski areas that have reopened, with restrictions on the number of folk who can visit and with social distancing measures in place. Clearly, we cannot know what conditions will be like at the start of the Northern Hemisphere's next ski season, but perhaps we can discuss what the changes might arise and what they may entail for our decisions between now and then?

Here's where I will start. I can't see what the benefit is of buying a season pass is now. It seems to me that it is not only possible, but probable that ski resorts will have to put limits on the number of visitors on any day. So, what does a season pass provide you with? If there are limits on the number of visitors, it seems that the pass does not provide unlimited skiing. And if it doesn't provide assured skiing at specific resorts, what is the value of the multi-resort pass?

It also seems to me that there will be far fewer people that will chose to ski next season. Fears of exposure will limit some from visiting at all, and the restrictions on lift operations and dining will probably reduce demand as well. Will those two factors alone be sufficient to ration demand to be less than the visitation caps that are likely to be present?

If there are visitation caps, how will they be fulfilled? By a lottery system? We see how that's operating at A-Basin. How will someone be able to plan a visit if the lottery system only operates a few days ahead? And how do you deal with changes in plans? Folk who have a reservation, but chose not to ski, or fall ill, or become injured/etc. Will there arise hybrid systems -- a reservation system with a lottery system on top?

Can people buy an assured visitation spot? Perhaps season passes become defunct, but perhaps there is a more expensive, but limited quantity seat license? Or do folk buying a private lesson have an assured spot?

It seems likely to me that the resort economies are going to royally tanked as a result of this. There's no way that the historic business volume will return anytime soon. Hotels, short term rentals, restaurants, shops, and the housing market, it seems to me, are all likely to suffer a significant recession/depression.

As a peak part time instructor, I'm pretty sure I will not have much work next season if I even have a job.

Lots of questions. What do you all think?

The "lottery" system doesnt work since ski demand varies from day to day and depends on a lot of factors. People will get tired of it in short order. I will not buy a pass to then have to enter a "lottery" every single day to ski. Rather go touring.

I believe (hopefully) that restricted capacity will not be an issue. Hotels/Lodging, dining, après/bars and on-mountain dining will probably be closed or very restricted to control the spread of the virus which will be around for a while. We will see new spikes or "waves" in cases shortly. Today I saw a LOT of people out and about in Denver, hanging out. In 2 weeks we will see he results of this "opening" of social businesses.

 

[crazycanuck]

At my local hill they are giving people the opportunity to cancel their season pass for a full refund up to a certain date (like end of summer). After that no refunds but if the season doesn't happen they will give a full credit to a pass for 21/22, and if they only get a partial season in then they will give partial credit. Seems fair, and I can bet that for now they just need the revenue coming in through the summer and hence hope to have people still buy passes. My worry is less how it will play out for the average pass holder here, but more feeling it for the kids on my sons race team, as it would such even more if they lose a season of training. As an adult I can rationalize why the hills might not be open, but skiing is my son's life and he will be heartbroken.

 

[KevinF]

I'm going on the "hope for the best, prepare for the worst" philosophy. The CDC is saying that there will be a resurgence this coming Fall / Winter which could very well mean that the restrictions we see now (i.e., Thredbo, A-Basin, etc.) are the "best" scenario.

I bought passes -- both Epic and Ikon -- for next season. I don't have touring gear; I don't see driving hours and hours to Vermont to ski two or three laps a day at most. So skiing would be a mid-week thing? Weekends in New England have become stupidly crowded anyway.

I dunno. Take up x-country? Go winter hiking? Lift-accessed skiing rapidly loses its appeal (to me) if it's going to be a hassle with lotteries and other restrictions being discussed.

 

[martyg]

Initial predictions are for La Niña next year, which means warmer and drier for us. While I purchased a season’s pass (weekday only) I plan to do a lot of bike riding. Maybe a road trip to the Northern Rockies if resort procedures allow me to ski.

 

[DanoT]

Sun Peaks plans to open for the summer in early July rather than the normal late June for golf, lift serviced mountain bike and hiking. Restaurants and bars are working on modifications and generally speaking the resort is using the new summer business model as a learning experience that can be fine tuned come winter. Outdoor summer concerts and major events are cancelled.

According to SPR marketing, 2/3 of the summer visitors are regional but I suspect that in winter less than 1/3 of the skiers are regional and a good many of those drive from Seattle and who knows when borders get reopened.

Sun Peaks gets lots of international skiers and staff and I have always joked that counting staff and customers together, Sun Peaks couldn't operate without Australia. I hope it doesn't come true.

Elevation Ski & Bike have a planned expansion of their ski rental operation into the adjacent Falline Tuning & Repair who currently occupy a small portion of a former night club, but who knows if they will even be renting skis. Perhaps by appointment only.

SPR has announced that the New Crystal Chair installation will go ahead and that all the parts from Doppelmayr have arrived but there may be supply chain problems getting the necessary electronic parts. They are not going to dismantle the old chair until they know that the new chair will be operational. The biggest delay right now is too much snow still in the Alpine due to 2020 being a way above average snow year.