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How will Skiing be Different in the '20-'21 Season?

Steve

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Wow! I'd love to see figures on what percentage of skier visits are from passholders vs. day ticket buyers.
 

raytseng

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Wow! I'd love to see figures on what percentage of skier visits are from passholders vs. day ticket buyers.
This is in prior investor presentations if you are interested you can dig it out. But typically the metric presented is only revenue mix. Only sometimes they'll do a slide on the actual visits.
Howerver, with the other statements on ETP, average pass usages, the Rev mix and your knowledge of window rates; you can make a guestimate to the visitor split if they didn't do a specific slide.


In quick search, I was only able to find in this 2019 presentation, they did have a slide on visits with 2017/2018 visitor breakdown (p24). It says 56% passproduct, 44% "lift ticket". Since the strategic goal is to shift more to pass products (including epicday); after 2 extra years of business development I think the current mix is certainly bumped up now. I'd guestimate it's around 66% : 33% (2:1) for last season. The interpretation or takeaways from the data though may vary depending on the exact resort you're at; and how they handle new acquisitions into the metric too.

Obviously, the plan now is to just jump and force it all the way to 100%: 0% in the coming season with the Reservation policy..
 
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Steve

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Well that's good news. If pass sales increase, skier visits increase. My hope is that day ticket users numbers decrease and offset the increase. That seems fairly likely as the non serious skier will be more put off by covid restrictions.
 

Seldomski

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Well, Vail counts the Epic-Day pass as a pass sale. Those can be as short as 1 day of skiing. I suspect many of 18% increase are those sorts of passes - something like 3-4 days of skiing to be used for the one weekend trip they want to do this season. If they didn't buy one, they wouldn't have priority to reserve the days they want far in advance.

These customers would have normally bought lift tickets 2 weeks in advance before arrival.

Just my hunch.....
 

nay

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Well, Vail counts the Epic-Day pass as a pass sale. Those can be as short as 1 day of skiing. I suspect many of 18% increase are those sorts of passes - something like 3-4 days of skiing to be used for the one weekend trip they want to do this season. If they didn't buy one, they wouldn't have priority to reserve the days they want far in advance.

These customers would have normally bought lift tickets 2 weeks in advance before arrival.

Just my hunch.....

They say year over year revenue is down 4% so obviously it can’t be 1:1. However, Vail also gave discount incentives for 2019 passes to 2020 so how much of the revenue decline is there?

The big thing that jumps out to me is people aren’t sitting out en masse. Or, the “passholders get priority” is working. And should be true anyway.
 

ski otter 2

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Yes, and to me what it also says is hold it, skier numbers may not be down much this year, at Epic.


(But in the background, for me, there's still the risk, an echo, of what happened in the Influenza Pandemic of 1918-19, which also started in late winter/early spring and was not so bad at first; but then got much worse that next fall and winter, and throughout the following year, worldwide.
If something like that happens, area shutdowns may be the least of it.)
 

crgildart

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Wow! I'd love to see figures on what percentage of skier visits are from passholders vs. day ticket buyers.
I'd love to see the % of profits per rider broken down by passholders versus walk up day tickets in addition to the totals for the resort pass sales versus day ticket sales.

We'd know what walk up tickets and 3 pack folks paid per day to ski. We'd need a good avarage of pass usage per pass holder to get that side of it.. Total passes sold evenues /daily average passholder usage.. vs Total day ticket reenues/number of day tickets sold for revenues per person at the resort actually using the facilities(costs).
 
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crgildart

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This is in prior investor presentations if you are interested you can dig it out. But typically the metric presented is only revenue mix. Only sometimes they'll do a slide on the actual visits.
Howerver, with the other statements on ETP, average pass usages, the Rev mix and your knowledge of window rates; you can make a guestimate to the visitor split if they didn't do a specific slide.


In quick search, I was only able to find in this 2019 presentation, they did have a slide on visits with 2017/2018 visitor breakdown (p24). It says 56% passproduct, 44% "lift ticket". Since the strategic goal is to shift more to pass products (including epicday); after 2 extra years of business development I think the current mix is certainly bumped up now. I'd guestimate it's around 66% : 33% (2:1) for last season. The interpretation or takeaways from the data though may vary depending on the exact resort you're at; and how they handle new acquisitions into the metric too.

Obviously, the plan now is to just jump and force it all the way to 100%: 0% in the coming season with the Reservation policy..
Makes sense with everyone wanting a recurring revenue business model.. especially in indistries sensitive to other impacts like weather and climate.
 

DanoT

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I'd love to see the % of profits per rider broken down by passholders versus walk up day tickets in addition to the totals for the resort pass sales versus day ticket sales.

We'd know what walk up tickets and 3 pack folks paid per day to ski. We'd need a good avarage of pass usage per pass holder to get that side of it.. Total passes sold evenues /daily average passholder usage.. vs Total day ticket reenues/number of day tickets sold for revenues per person at the resort actually using the facilities(costs).
A more significant stat to me is the amount of $ spent at the resort by day skiers after they drop $150 + on a ticket vs a pass holder who bought a pass months ago and who doesn't open their wallet until time for an overpriced lunch. IMO this is the key to the business model that incorporates high priced lift tickets and low priced passes.
 

mikel

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I was one of those Epic day pass holders last season. Purchased 2 day restricted passes. The pass shows the number of days and says restricted right by your picture. Cost was $102 per day and was purchased during the Labor Day weekend sales. And yes, based on the subsequent "pass holder" emails I have received since then I believe they somehow count in a season pass category. You have to purchase more than 4 days to actually receive the benefits of a passholder. Yes we ate lunch both days in an over crowded and pricey onsite restaurant at the base.

If I remember correctly, the walk up window rate for Breck those 2 days was in the $180's, maybe a little more. The $102 was the cheapest per day rate last season. I have no clue how the walk up rates for those 2 days compared between Breck, Keystone, Vail, and BC.
 

crgildart

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A more significant stat to me is the amount of $ spent at the resort by day skiers after they drop $150 + on a ticket vs a pass holder who bought a pass months ago and who doesn't open their wallet until time for an overpriced lunch. IMO this is the key to the business model that incorporates high priced lift tickets and low priced passes.
Ya the highway robbery revenue variable is significant. I have a hunch that's the main factor for the open or stay closed decision for the smaller areas like Elk. If you don't have deep pockets to run at a loss this round better to just shutter up for a year and wait. Food, ski shop, rentals, and group lessons are a significant profit centers. Probably way more than season pass revenues.. That's start up money. Lodge, ski school etc, pays the regular season operating costs. Other option is to raise day tickets to offset those lost products.
 

fatbob

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Yes, and to me what it also says is hold it, skier numbers may not be down much this year, at Epic.

That's pretty much all it says to me and reason enough if I was holding out on buying a pass to bump Epic further down the list.

We're pretty much alpha predator pass nerds on this forum and we don't have a chance of figuring out what it means in detail because we just don't know the breakdown. All we know is that Vail seem pretty proud of their resilience which seems like a fair achievement in a year when everyone was getting rollover or welcome back discounts from them. How much revenue they get to keep due to staying open all season and how much the real money spinners like F&B, lessons etc take a hit is another question.
 

raytseng

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A more significant stat to me is the amount of $ spent at the resort by day skiers after they drop $150 + on a ticket vs a pass holder who bought a pass months ago and who doesn't open their wallet until time for an overpriced lunch. IMO this is the key to the business model that incorporates high priced lift tickets and low priced passes.

I don't think that stat will be too important because the larger multiyear strategy is to convert guests to passholders. So if a dayticket holder is buying $20 epicburgers and rentals and lessons; the plan is to turn that day skier to be a passholder...and my position is that person's spending habits are not going to shift. We see that the average passholder still only uses their pass for a 1 week a year splurge trip (which the average pass usages bears out).
There's some aspects of correlation and causation here.
The way I see it, currently if the assertion/stat is passholders spend less on amenities; that's only just a short term correlation. When you convert a dayticket person to be a 1st time passholders, that doesn't cause that new passholder to change their purchasing into that of a skibum, just because they have a pass. All the posts about people calculating their breakevens seem to show they intend to spend their money more or less the same way. If that was the case the business model would be opposite, they'd lower the window tickets to get these extravagant skiers onto their slopes and make the money on the ammenities, and kick out the passholders who are the cheapskates.

So, by that logic, my conclusion is the new uptake of presumably 1st time or epicday passholders that are buying 2021 in lieu of window tickets, should increase the passholder ammenity spend as it converts.
But the comparison and numbers are all going fall apart in 2021 since the amenities are all burdened by covid19 so you're not going to have good numbers until covid is gone. If you conclude in 2021 that huge losses in F&B and lodging, and all 2021 guests are passholders, therefore that means all passholders are cheapskates and don't spend, that's got some big flaws in that logic.
The other more likely factor of spend than being a passholder/nonpassholder is just as a factor of as they become more experienced and no longer need lessons and have their own skis they won't spend as much. So if this is just going to be the natural progression of a skier to learn to be more thrifty and you got to choose whether you want them as lifelong passholders or not, and to pursue them or not (and get all their friends and all their family).
So my conclusion is that stat of passholder/non-passholder is a bit of a false distinction to me; I think the spending habits go with the guest; or be a result of becoming an experienced skier. This is the underlying core of the epicpass, Get people [of all types] to commit to your resort and come more, it'll grow the pie, and they'll spend more.

Also remember, the high priced lift tickets isn't just to gouge the price insensitive affluent destination guest that rolls in on their private jet and fur coats. Now after 10years and the rev mix is now the majority, I see the primary purpose of high inflated window pricing is to retain current passholders and keep them locked in. If you only have the 1 lever of pricing; you only can optimize for 1 goal at a time anyway and all the other factors fall away.
 
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DanoT

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So my conclusion is that stat of passholder/non-passholder is a bit of a false distinction to me; I think the spending habits go with the guest; or be a result of becoming an experienced skier. This is the underlying core of the epicpass, Get people [of all types] to commit to your resort and lock them in, and they'll spend more.
^^^I agree with your last sentence, but it contradicts your first sentence.

My contention is that going from day ticket purchaser to pass holder does modify spending habits substantially when you don't have to spend $150+ within the first few minutes of arriving at a resort. It then has the potential for the former day ticket buyer to spend more at lunch, après ski, shopping, drinks at dinner; you name it, because that $150+ that didn't get spent first thing in the morning with the pass holder, will mean more spending throughout the day and evening.

And even if the $ per day cost of a pass only works out to a small saving over day tickets, the fact that the pass $ was spent months ago, it still makes it easier to open the wallet wide on ski days. It's kinda like a friend once said: "The first day of the season is $900, the rest of the ski days are free".
 
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raytseng

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^^^I agree with your last sentence, but it contradicts your first sentence.

My contention is that going from day ticket purchaser to pass holder does modify spending habits substantially when you don't have to spend $150+ within the first few minutes of arriving at a resort. It then has the potential for the former day ticket buyer to spend more at lunch, après ski, shopping, drinks at dinner; you name it, because that $150+ that didn't get spent first thing in the morning with the pass holder, will mean more spending throughout the day and evening.

And even if the $ per day cost of a pass only works out to a small saving over day tickets, the fact that the pass $ was spent months ago, it still makes it easier to open the wallet wide on ski days. It's kinda like a friend once said: "The first day of the season is $900, the rest of the ski days are free".
Good point, makes sense. Although I think it's points out there are a variety of different guest habits; and this makes the analysis of the total revenue spending per day per guests split along passholder/non-passholder even less material though to answer any qeustions or make any decisions. It is perhaps only useful as a 2nd or 3rd order factor, and just lumping it all together by segment is fine for the 1st order analysis.
 

fatbob

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So my conclusion is that stat of passholder/non-passholder is a bit of a false distinction to me; I think the spending habits go with the guest; or be a result of becoming an experienced skier.

The great equalizer of the megapass era was that it put locals and drive ups on the same pass as the destination skier#. Now those groups still spend differently - a tourist spends more than a drive up spends more than a local usually but all 3 are locked in whereas possibly only the local was before. And it also means lower friction to the extra ski trip. Just as local might say might as well go get a few laps in I've got an hour or 2 spare, a tourist might squeeze an extra weekend in because the skiing is "free".

# Obviously also a factor in the stupid Ikon blowback stuff
 

raytseng

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The great equalizer of the megapass era was that it put locals and drive ups on the same pass as the destination skier#. Now those groups still spend differently - a tourist spends more than a drive up spends more than a local usually but all 3 are locked in whereas possibly only the local was before. And it also means lower friction to the extra ski trip. Just as local might say might as well go get a few laps in I've got an hour or 2 spare, a tourist might squeeze an extra weekend in because the skiing is "free".

# Obviously also a factor in the stupid Ikon blowback stuff
Also pushes the local to take a trip and then be the "destination skier" at a different resort and presumably splurge on that trip (compared to those 5 days at their home resort with tailgate or pocket pb&j lunch). So the roles are blended and the pie is grown.
 
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David Chaus

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So, I have an Ikon Pass, and upgraded from Base to full Ikon this season (in part to attend the Aspen Gathering and visit a few other resorts along the way). I am definitely more invested in visiting those Alterra/Ikon resorts than I would be if I didn't have the pass, which also happens to be the season pass for Crystal Mt. Guess their grand strategy worked on me, even as I was well aware of what they're doing.

I haven't renewed my Epic Pass, and am undecided about getting a weekday pass at Stevens vs getting days tickets (same for Baker, which doesn't have a weekday only pass). It's a longer drive for me to go to Crystal, and I have to consider whether it's worth it to drive there on a regular basis. Even so, I've almost written off the idea of going to Stevens at all this season, though it's the most convenient drive during weekdays.

Interesting what having a pass does to one's decision-making process.
 
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Gary Stolt

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Im not sure why season passes are relatively cheap but the super expensive window rates continue to go up every year and it just doesn't seem to affect the number of people waiting in line to pay $180-$200 per day. Why would Vail resorts not have a $200 window rate when they have a long line of people waiting to pay it? The mystery is why do they let us on many different mountains all season for the price of a couple lift tix.
 

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