Colorado Honestly, should I change my ski vaca plans due to lack of snow but will lose money

[surfsnowgirl]

If we book a vacation we book a vacation. We have no control over the weather so we go and make the best of it. Our trip to Banff for example. We are going regardless, worst case we ski groomers all the time. Best case we have amazing powder. Either way we are on vacation in a very gorgeous spot. We have a trip booked for Heavenly in Tahoe in early March. I'm not worried about the weather or the conditions. We'll be on vacation in a very pretty place so we will have a good time regardless. I feel like a bad day skiing out west is probably better than a good day in the northeast. Not necessarily always true but we'll make the best of if it and have a good time regardless.

I hope all works out with your travels and you have lots of powder and at a minimum have a blast as vacation is good for the soul.

 

[Jwrags]

I am headed to Purgatory the first full week of February so have been watching the weather in that area with interest. It has been very bad but last week got about 15" over a 3 day period. A big storm is predicted to move into that area Saturday, dropping 8-16" in an area that includes Purgatory and Telluride. The last two storms they got the lower end of the range so hopefully this time will bring the 16" or more. If you are on FB search for Durango Snow Lovers-Durango's Weather by Jeff Givens. He seems to be the local forecast guru and was recommended to be by the Purgatory customer service agent. I am optimistically hopeful that with another 2+ weeks until I leave that conditions will round into shape. It only takes a couple of big storms to make all the concern go away.

Worst case scenario we go hiking at lower elevations or check out some easy mountain biking. No matter what there will be lots of good food and wine with my brother and friend. How bad can that be.

Think snow!!

 

[Goose]

and so the storm to the rockies is coming which also includes SW CO which is good news. That said and yea.. given the season and what we need and hope for it doesn't seem Telluride is to receive the brunt of things. Most models I find seem to indicate about 6/7 inches. We'll see what happens of course and anything better than nothing but the "big" dump needed and hoped for is not looking to be the case here at least as of now. Hopefully that's wrong. But go figure. That said i'll take whatever it is and if that can happen often enough times it would help. And certainly something good for those heading there this weekend/week. Seem possible more snow coming next week too, Hey ill take many 6 inch snow storms every 5 days all year in lieu of one biggie. That works too .

 

[Monique]

and so the storm to the rockies is coming which also includes SW CO which is good news. That said and yea.. given the season and what we need and hope for it doesn't seem Telluride is to receive the brunt of things. Most models I find seem to indicate about 6/7 inches. We'll see what happens of course and anything better than nothing but the "big" dump needed and hoped for is not looking to be the case here at least as of now. Hopefully that's wrong. But go figure. That said i'll take whatever it is and if that can happen often enough times it would help.

No one could have predicted the way this season is going for Telluride. It's an excellent, painful reminder that statistics have no bearing on an individual "roll."

 

[Goose]

No one could have predicted the way this season is going for Telluride. It's an excellent, painful reminder that statistics have no bearing on an individual "roll."

yup, I ve had better chances rolling dice in Atlantic city..lol but not really
Which BTW and on another note, is a shame how downhill A/C has really gone. Off topic I know but it does work to kill time and break the thread a tad..lol

 

[Skistaff]

any updates on the current T snow situation ?

 

[Ken_R]

any updates on the current T snow situation ?

Still, no good. Check in again on Monday after this next storm.

 

[bamaman]

Yeah, I wondered the same thing. The ortho was young (late 20's?), and part of me wonders if she's just giving me the official / CYA answer. I asked about casting it, but it's way too far up my arm (it's broken basically at the shoulder socket). If it was a wrist or something, I would put on a cast and go. I also asked if there was some other way to protect it (a brace or something), and she said the shoulder is just too large of an area for that to work well.

The other problem is the pain and lack of range of motion / strength. I can't raise it more than a few inches, and if I try, I get searing pain. Granted, I'm only 72 hours post-injury, so it will probably be better by next week. But if it's not, not only would I not be able to pole with my right arm, my balance would be way off. Plus, I couldn't take any kind of jolt, so no bumps, no jump turns in the steeps, and no dropping off cornices. All my favorite things...

My wife suggested we take the trip just as a romantic vacation and not ski. But I know myself too well, and I'd wind up on the slopes, especially if we got fresh snow. It would be like putting an alcoholic in a bar (apologies if that offends anyone); I couldn't resist. And if she forced me too, I would be really crabby / grouchy. I'd rather not go and not blow the vacation time plus the extra $$$ on food, activities, rental cars, etc.

Right now my first choice is to heal up and push the trip to mid-March, which could work out...

Broke my humerous head on my right shoulder on the slopes 3 years ago in early January in CO. Dr. told me the same thing. Keep in sling for 6-8 weeks and you can ski again. Go ski on it now and you'll most likely rip the rotator cuff. I didn't chance it. I waited and went back out to CO end of March and skied for 2 weeks.

 

[Goose]

any updates on the current T snow situation ?

And so, the storm has left them with 9 and another couple expected through today. I suppose by tomorrow or next day we will see what/if any new trails will open as a result.
I'll keep taking 9's and 11's and even 6/8's so long as they come every few days continually. Collectively that could do a whole lot though getting that every few days is not realistic as T does get 300 days of blue bird. So it would sure be nice to see a couple these storms to truly leave big drops. A couple 2 footers would be more like what they need.
As of right now still no trails more than some double blues are open. Only 1 black, no bowls and they are stiing at 30 of 147 and somewhere about 22 or 23% open. Im sure the skiing on what is open must be great today and we'll see how much more may possibly be opening next day I assume . Some more snows expected over next week to 10 days on a couple occasions. Will one of them finally hit the area with a true big drop? Again we just wait and see if some better luck can hit the area. One good thing is that with all the blue days they have had so far they are probably well past the norm in that regard, so law of averages would then suggest they are in for many cloud cover and precipitation days. Heck, just trying to find some positive to look for even if my own little twist on it.

 

[Monique]

I'll keep taking 9's and 11's and even 6/8's so long as they come every few days continually. Collectively that could do a whole lot though getting that every few days is not realistic as T does get 300 days of blue bird. So it would sure be nice to see a couple these storms to truly leave big drops. A couple 2 footers would be more like what they need.

Those numbers do not sound like Colorado numbers to me. Maybe that's because I'm in a different part of Colorado. 9" is a big day on the I-70 corridor.

 

[Goose]

Those numbers do not sound like Colorado numbers to me. Maybe that's because I'm in a different part of Colorado. 9" is a big day on the I-70 corridor.

Ok and you would know better than me. Perhaps Im just hoping for the big dump of 2 feet or even more even if that's never a norm. You know just as to make up for deficit.
But good news fwiw......they did climb the trail status today to now read 40 trails open and a handful of black and even double are now open as well as many more other trails. At least for now anyway. So the storm which is now at 10 inches and still snowing (not quite done yet) has lead to a nice bump of open terrain. That's nice to see. This certainly helps a lot for those folks heading there very soon. And fwiw also for my March trip. So let it just keep coming is all I can say.

 

[Dwight]

 

[David Chaus]

You don’t need 300” to have fallen by time you get there. You can have 200” or even 150” total snowfall and have great coverage for most terrain, though not necessarily for double diamond terrain.

Case in point: Stevens Pass, my home area, has received 206” so far this season. Everything is open, including all double black terrain. We got several days of 3-6” a day, and if you’d been here over the weekend you’d have been really happy with the conditions.

(FWIW if we received only 300” total in a season, that’s a really bad year for us; we typically receive 450” to 500”. But nevermind.)

What you do want is some fresh snow from time to time. It’s not how much snow, it’s when it falls. If Telluride got a big dump of several feet of snow right now and caught up with their seasonal average, but then got nothing between now and March, the conditions might not be that good when you are actually there. OTOH if they continue to receive a few inches here and there, and you get fresh snow while you’re there, , even if they don’t hit the 300” average this year.

 

[Goose]

You don’t need 300” to have fallen by time you get there. You can have 200” or even 150” total snowfall and have great coverage for most terrain, though not necessarily for double diamond terrain.

Case in point: Stevens Pass, my home area, has received 206” so far this season. Everything is open, including all double black terrain. We got several days of 3-6” a day, and if you’d been here over the weekend you’d have been really happy with the conditions.

(FWIW if we received only 300” total in a season, that’s a really bad year for us; we typically receive 450” to 500”. But nevermind.)

What you do want is some fresh snow from time to time. It’s not how much snow, it’s when it falls. If Telluride got a big dump of several feet of snow right now and caught up with their seasonal average, but then got nothing between now and March, the conditions might not be that good when you are actually there. OTOH if they continue to receive a few inches here and there, and you get fresh snow while you’re there, , even if they don’t hit the 300” average this year.

No, you don't need 300. You don't even need 200. A couple 2 foot blizzards a week apart could probably open most terrain at most resorts while it lasted. So its not about the 300. We only use that as a means of describing the deficit to the area's would be normal. The whole problem is building the packed base. If very large dumps are not to occur then well...you need a whole lot of small and more frequent ones to build on. That's the part (the packed base) that is missing form the first half of 150 of 300 inches and from a large chunk of terrain in such a deficit as this year. If Telluride stood at 150 right now (and about half way point to 300 being half way through winter) we most probably wouldn't be having this conversation. Mainly because that base would most probably exist in many the places its required in order to ski.

Trail count is up to 58 of 149 now but is about 500 of the 2000 acres. I don't know what percentage of acreage would normally be open on Jan 22nd in a normal year. Id have to assume its more than 500 of the 2000.
58 trials is about what 35% or so but 500 of 2000 is only 1/4 of the acreage available. Its getting much better and Im feeling better about it. Likw what Im seing past couple storms. But there is a long way to go. Is it any coincidence that les than about 1/4 of the normal snow fall has fallen and about 1/4 the resort is open while we are skiing about mid season half way point? Domt get me wrong, Im happy about the new snow (very happy) and the opening of more trails. Anyone there right now is having a blast I assume. Making my vacation plans feel much better at the moment too. But time is also passing quickly and more dumps are needed. February still needs to be a big snow month. More skiable acreage still needs to happen. Here's to hoping it will

 

[jmeb]

Case in point: Stevens Pass, my home area, has received 206” so far this season. Everything is open, including all double black terrain. We got several days of 3-6” a day, and if you’d been here over the weekend you’d have been really happy with the conditions.

Keep in mind 200" at Stevens is very different than 200" at Telluride in how it builds base. One is a typically wetter, denser, better base-building snowpack. The other is a drier, lighter, easily-swept-away-by-wind snowpack. While we all love skiing blower powder, it is less than ideal from a coverage perspective. 200" in the PNW is more like 300" in CO. (Or -- what sort of coverage did Stevens have at 80" -- that's probably T-rides at 120").

 

[WC68]

I just booked a trip to Telluride, yesterday. For the end of March.
I’m not worried at all. Won’t be skiing Palmyra in any case.

 

[RJS]

Telluride's base vs. the historical average was 38% two weeks ago, and is up to 54% today thanks to the recent storms. I don't know how Telluride is actually skiing now, and only 58/148 trails are open, but the snow situation is starting to sound more like the I-70 resorts. I am feeling like Telluride is going to be OK for March. A lot of the expert terrain won't be open, or will have thin coverage, but for many skiers that's OK.

 

[Lofcaudio]

I'm heading that direction tomorrow and will be skiing Telluride Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. All of the lifts with the exception of Lift 15 (Revelation Bowl) will be running. Just about any terrain I will want to ski should be in play.

 

[Goose]

and so more lifts and trails are indeed open and are to the somewhat upper portion of the mountain. All be it mostly greens with some blue and a double blue or two. Most blacks that are open are some of the ones into town side of resort which were already open with a few mid mountain.

71 trails which is a little less than half which sounds decent. But take the word "trail" with the grains of salt the word comes with while in terms of acreage its only about 1/3 or 670 of the 2000. But regardless...that's a considerable jump in skiable growth from a couple weeks ago and is certainly a good thing.

How much healthy base is on much of the newly opened trails that will last for considerable length of time without good refresher snows? I have no clue. And as RJS's post points out above the base is 54% or is 46% short vs its historical average. So could a couple weeks with no significant snow and sunny days force some closures? Again I have no clue. I would assume most people would find enough skiing right now. And I imagine what is open would be skiing very well considering the recent dump.

Though Id also assume if the town/resort is booked near capacity you might find the trails a bit crowded simply due to lack of open skiable acreage in total for a place that normally wouldn't be too crowded if say much more of the 2000 acres were open. Id imagine the whole 2000 acres is not something normally always open anyway but correct me if wrong about that. And I am curious though for late January just how much is usually open. With a base of 54% of normal it would seem a lot more would normally been the case.

According to opensnow (what Ive read recently) the weather pattern is expected to change during/after the first week of February and snow possibilities will be more north and east during that time untill the next pattern shift would change back again. That is both poor and good news because it means snows will likely not plague the area but also mentioned its possible during that time that moisture from the south could come up and "if" that happens it could potentially produce a heavy dump. That would be awesome.

To those heading up shortly I hope you all find a great time skiing and doing whatever else your hearts desire . Post back with info and how all things went on your trip.

 

[Lofcaudio]

I will definitely provide a trip report on this thread. Telluride is great at snow preservation, so it would be very unlikely that it has to close terrain due to warm/sunny weather in February (but who knows with this crazy season). It's much more likely that any snowfall will just add to the base.

Like I've been saying all along, you will be fine in March.