Good Read: a cycling surge

AmyPJ

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Wow, a 31% increase in sales. I wonder how many barely used bikes we'll see for sale in the fall?
 

Tricia

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martyg

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A friend on FB who usually posts his Strava sessions posted this today:
Turn off the Strava. Take a breath. Enjoy the ride.

BTW... thanks for the title edit. I’ll try to be more descriptive next time. Have a good night.
 

Tricia

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BTW... thanks for the title edit. I’ll try to be more descriptive next time. Have a good night.
No worries. Let me know if you have a different idea for the title.
:)
 
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martyg

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Wow, a 31% increase in sales. I wonder how many barely used bikes we'll see for sale in the fall?
It will be interesting to see if this sticks. The “stickier” the pathogen is, the more committed consumers will likely be to cycling. It feels like pedestrian infrastructure is definitely on the upswing in major cities.
 

Rostapher

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Wow, a 31% increase in sales. I wonder how many barely used bikes we'll see for sale in the fall?
I was thinking the same thing @AmyPJ as I read this NYT article. There’s going to be a huge used market, if not this fall then in a year or two. Keep you eyes out for some deals!
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/nyregion/bike-shortage-coronavirus.html

It will be interesting to see if this sticks. The “stickier” the pathogen is, the more committed consumers will likely be to cycling. It feels like pedestrian infrastructure is definitely on the upswing in major cities.
Agreed @martyg, but I unfortunately have little faith in Americans to stick with bikes. I sure hope I’m wrong and in a few years I see dozens or hundreds of people riding to work each day, instead of having lots of people bitter & complaining about the “waste” of the newly installed bike lanes that were incorporated into a paving & street redesign project.
 

markojp

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I agree... turn off Strava... just ride.

(Cat 6 Strava bros seem to be the worst about distancing and general road etiquette.)
 

cantunamunch

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Wow, a 31% increase in sales. I wonder how many barely used bikes we'll see for sale in the fall?
Yeh, not that many. The countering pressure will be on bike shops, with stock delivery delays from mfgs - on the scale of 8 week, 10 week and 14 week delays. A 14 week delivery delay starting mid-March is more than half the summer missed.

So, slightly more volume on the used market, primarily for lower-end gear. And guess what else? Significantly increased repair costs because shops have to stay in business somehow without new stock deliveries to sell.

Net shakeout? Higher consumer costs except where consumer is knowledgeable enough to do their own repair work, including wheel truing and derailleur adjustment.
 

AmyPJ

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Yeh, not that many. The countering pressure will be on bike shops, with stock delivery delays from mfgs - on the scale of 8 week, 10 week and 14 week delays. A 14 week delivery delay starting mid-March is more than half the summer missed.

So, slightly more volume on the used market, primarily for lower-end gear. And guess what else? Significantly increased repair costs because shops have to stay in business somehow without new stock deliveries to sell.

Net shakeout? Higher consumer costs except where consumer is knowledgeable enough to do their own repair work, including wheel truing and derailleur adjustment.
I'm not sure how, but the shop I go to, which is a Trek dealer, has not experienced many delays in delivery. Trek are not built in China and I wonder if that has much to do with it. I know a lot of the parts are, however.
And their repair shop is as busy as it's ever been.

I've seen lower level bikes, but also a TON of e-bikes going out the door.

I'd love to see more commuters on bikes, e-bikes, whatever. I also hope that our local trail systems expand to accommodate those out on the trails, because if I'd have to guess, usage has increased by at least 300% in the six years I've been riding here.

I like Strava because I like to track miles, but I also honestly get a boost when I look at how I stack up against women my age in particular, and it makes me grin a little . Sometimes, when I ride with women who are younger and faster, I can get pretty discouraged. So for me, Strava gives me a boost and inspires me to put a few more miles in and push a little harder.
 
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cantunamunch

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I'm not sure how, but the shop I go to, which is a Trek dealer, has not experienced many delays in delivery. Trek are not built in China and I wonder if that has much to do with it. I know a lot of the parts are, however.
Interesting. My local Spesh/C'dale shop has a half-empty showroom. And two of the direct-to-dealer Giant guys are tearing their hair out, talking of closure - unless they can double their shop work charges.
 

scott43

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Back in the day.. Bikes were impossible to sell unless you had them built and on the floor. No patience, often impulse buy almost..
 

cantunamunch

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Back in the day.. Bikes were impossible to sell unless you had them built and on the floor. No patience, often impulse buy almost..
BITD our local Toys 'R Us sold more bikes on two-week assembly tickets with only 5-6 assembled bikes at any given time than the proper bike shop just down the street could with a whole shop full. Tickets were extended to 3 weeks during Christmas rush - all of us back room guys were manning checkout registers :D The key was getting them in the door and if it took Cabbage Patch and Star Wars to do it...
 

scott43

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We had the proper shop and if you had to say "we have it in a box and just need a day to assemble it" we often would lose them. I used to build three or four an hour and they'd sell fast on a Saturday. If we didn't do that we just didn't sell. It was ok but you get tired of building twenty Rockhoppers in one day. So I can see how shops with no stock on hand can't get any sales with the "they're coming in this week" line... :(
 

KevinF

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The Boston Globe — actually an article copied from The NY Times — had a story on this. The gist was that bike shop bikes were basically getting impossible to find at what most people would consider to be a “reasonable” price point— I.e., a few hundred dollars.

I live in the Boston suburbs, maybe 30 miles west of the city. There’s actually pretty good road cycling around here; I can’t say I’ve seen a marked increase in the local cycling population, but maybe closer into the city it’s jumping?

I’d love to see more cyclists on the roads, etc. Maybe there will be some increased interest this year? I don’t hold out any hope for increased cycling infrastructure— there have been numerous news articles regarding the dire financial straits governments are in due to decreased tax revenue.

I also don’t hold out much hope for a sustained cycling boom. Winter in Massachusetts can be the Real Deal. It gets cold and it gets dark.
 

Fuller

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I've been a very good customer to my local Trek shop, my guy told me the other day that Trek was sold out nation wide. Other shops locally have reported their best month in a decade. Most of those sales are in lower priced bikes and shop repair work.
 

princo

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I've been a very good customer to my local Trek shop, my guy told me the other day that Trek was sold out nation wide. Other shops locally have reported their best month in a decade. Most of those sales are in lower priced bikes and shop repair work.
I can vouch to this as well as I was at Trek dealer yesterday picking up my bike with a replacement frame. The dealer mentioned that they (and Trek) were basically out of sub $1,000 bikes, with a few frames (XS or XXL) left of some models. They are expecting their 2021 allotment in the summer which they ordered a while back but that's it. I just noticed on Trek's website that they are already transitioning to their 2021 models as it's likely they won't be building any more 2020s.
 

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