I'd be very surprised to see a pass partnership with Alterra/Ikon. It doesn't fit with what Alan H. laid out in his press release: crowds, parking, better guest experience. I'm guessing they'll offer their own menu of tickets/passes to capture the early and late season skier.....as well as through the mid season. It's also not a fit with Alterra. Just a hunch, but eventually I think we'll see that Alterra is about much more than Ikon. Some resorts and partners will be shed. Some others added. The big thing to watch will be acquisitions. That's where we may see some serious battlegrounds between VR and Alterra. I hear all the time, from ski friends and others that I meet, that such and such a family will never sell , and I don't believe that to be the case. If you own one of the big guys, there has never been a better time to sell. Two competing buyers, loaded with the war chests to make deals.
Some of the owners of the big places are a big dysfunctional, and when you're looking a potential sales prices that could push to almost twice what they felt the real market value was 3-5 years ago, we may see some movement. Vail wants to reach that 1 Million number in Epic pass sales, and they clearly want to preserve the upper sliver of big spending destination visitors that that have had in past years. Alterra wants to build a compelling offering to build a similar client base, and to take away much of Vail's.
The goal for Alterra is to build this company that will command a huge market value when they either take it public, or flip it in some other type of "liquidity event." As others have noted, there is a lot of money invested in Alterra by KSL investors, and the Crowns. They essentially have an open checkbook with commitments to increase and double down investments form their current stakeholders. Vail, as a public company has many options to raise capital for deal{s}.
We'll see. I know very little about the ownership of A-Basin. I don't see either of the big guys wanting to overspend to buy it. And it seems like with their niche they should be able to enjoy much success as an independent. We also have NO IDEA how the pass deal was structured, and if either partner wanted to change it, with the other saying: "No Thanks....doesn't work for us that way. Thanks for the memories."
When Alterra was first formed, and when VR's stock was on the march toward their record high, I recall a few of us saying that this was going to be along term "thing", just beginning, and to stay tuned. Because things would never be the same. Nor would they truly be the same. I still believe that.
BTW, I hear that some of the inside market research shows that there is a bit of novelty to Ikon, and that Ikon's launch has also made people think that they really need to consider one of these passes if hopping on a plane to fly East to West, as one example. All boats rising with that tide. And, it's been a great snow winter in some parts of the country and a weird one in others. I'm excited as I look out my window to see 3" of fresh snow on the ground, as it looks like winter. It's been brown. Meanwhile our son's house is buried under 20+ feet, elsewhere. So, as a result, I know many taking planned trips to fly and ski. They planning part was that they bought passes last summer, knowing they would make at least one trip. May turn into three. Snow this year is affecting this.
I think that it may be more apparent after the season ends. And yes, we'll only hear what Alterra wants to release for tidbits, and we'll hear and see how VR spins their numbers....keeping in mind that the people they are selling to are the tiny community of analysts who follow the stock, many of who seemed to have cooled on it, and are perhaps a bit skeptical.
Rambling here.....sorry. A-Basin is a special place. I think being independent can and will work for everybody. Hopefully it will be a big win!
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