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SBrown

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@nay I side with your line of thinking but you need to do yourself a favor and just stop.

Trust me, you might as well push shit uphill, man. No matter how well an argument you present, even getting a concession that there is even a possibility you could be right from most of the Ikon / megapass fanboys isn't going to happen.

And even if you are right, nobody is going to later say a year from now, damn you were right about the relative crowding. They'll be too busy slapping each other on the back about their stats of skiing xxx number of different ski resorts on their megapass equaling $1.50/day. And don't even think about saying but yeah, the experience is degraded with more crowding.

Trust me, shoveling shit uphill is more rewarding than continuing to provide any counterpoints. Do yourself a favor and just stop.

That's a bunch of bullshit, frankly.
 

MarkP

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Philpug

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It doesn't take a lot to tip the scales....Ikon sells another 40k passes in the Front Range, Epic sells 30K less. Ikon skiers ski an average of 12 days to the Epics 8. All of a sudden, numbers look way more even when you're talking total skier days on a mountain.
You are basing your whole point on a 70,000 pass swing in the Colorado front range and Ikon pass holders skiing 50% more than Epic pass holders? Those are some really big if's.
 
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jmeb

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You are basing your whole point on a 70,000 pass swing in the Colorado front range and Ikon pass holders skiing 50% more than Epic pass holders? Those are some really big if's.

This whole thread is big ifs.

My broader point is that one pass declining locally (this seems likely -- Abasin/Keystone was huge here and Abasin was critical component of the Epic local here), one increasing (Ikon offers objectively more skiing nearby than the Epic which is now really just Breck/Key w/o another mountain pass and paid parking), difference in pass utilization (who knows, we have no data) both in volume and pattern can wash out the difference between the passes.

We don't have enough data to accurately predict.

Trump had a 3% chance of winning. Sometimes the errors in projections aren't random. 750k vs 250k and unlimited vs 5-7 isn't enough info for any sure bets. Especially when you're talking about a ski area with--what--1200? parking spots an hour from a major metro that is growing significantly.
 

UGASkiDawg

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That's a bunch of bullshit, frankly.
Correct.....where does fanboys come from. I ski where I want to based on my wants and needs. How exactly does that make me a fanboy. I could buy any pass I wanted to or all of them if I wanted but since o choose to buy what fits my needs....I'm a fanboy.
 

Ski&ride

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I would also venture to say the amount of Epic passes in the Front Range verses the amount if Ikon passes is a higher percentage compared to the global amount.
What’s the base of that assertion?

Last year, Ikon replaced the exclusively front range pass RMSP+. I think it’s safe to assume 100% of RMSP holders converted to IKON.

I bet there’s data out there of the total pass sale of RMSP/RMSP+. That’s you Colorado IKON holder number.
 

Philpug

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What’s the base of that assertion?
The Epic has been around for years with Vail, Keystone, Breck, big, high volume resorts, and up till this year A-Basin on it. Ikon in only one year old and the only real draw for the Front Rangers was Copper and Winter Park. The Aspens and Steamboat are more destinations...coming from the FR.
 

fatbob

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...but you're talking like WP and Copper aren't the equal of Breck and Keystone...

And maybe in the RMSP days they weren't because there was always that "special" lure of Vail or the Beav to having an Epic pass. But with Ikon the cherry for front rangers comes with places that are arguably more "special" like Aspen and JH. So I see no objective reason that daytrippers wouldn't flip. First year Ikon sales aren't a reliable guide, Epic had years of inertia and Ikon was really a thing for those in the know and destination visitors. So what I'm daying is you can't really know until VR disclose some numbers....
 

Blue Streak

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Quite likely, but is it being shoveled uphill or downhill?
And what is the appropriate plural modifier of “bullshit?”
Is it a “ bunch,” or something more colorful?
Perhaps a “murder” of bullshit.
 

mikel

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I was looking at all the multi day passes that are going on sale this coming week for ski areas/resorts that front rangers frequent. Looks like A Basin has a 5 day pass for $199. I can see that being a popular option. Their transferable 4 pack for $229. Maybe not so much. Not with the Loveland 4 pack only $159.
 

HardDaysNight

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750k vs 250k....

That might have been true in the 18/19 season, although Ikon did rather better than 250k, but you can take it to the bank that it’s not going to stay that way. My insider moles report that sales of Ikon have exploded whereas Epic has been pretty weak. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re close to parity very soon!
 
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jmeb

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That might have been true in the 18/19 season, although Ikon did rather better than 250k, but you can take it to the bank that it’s not going to stay that way. My insider moles report that sales of Ikon have exploded whereas Epic has been pretty weak. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re close to parity very soon!

Agree -- hence why I am a bit skeptical of the notion that the number of passes historically is very indicative of how crowded Abasin will be.

Epic lost one of their most valuable passes to Front Rangers -- the Abasin/Keystone pass. And now the Summit Local and Summit Value cost same as last year (or a touch more) and don't include Abasin. Now I"m not sure the discount seeking people who bought Abasin/Keystone are going to jump straight to an Ikon Base. Who knows where they will go -- Abasin season? Keystone season pass? Loveland?
 

James

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Those stats are probably before Vail bought 17 ski areas, some which serve very high population centers.

Exactly, LL SUXS. No one should ski there. Its flat, lifts are slow and it gets icy AF.
You forgot, you can’t see.
 

HardDaysNight

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Those stats are probably before Vail bought 17 ski areas, some which serve very high population centers.

Yes, that’s a good point. It’s going to be interesting to see how the acquisition, when it closes, affects the dynamic. Too early to say at this juncture. Also whether, between them, Epic and Ikon actually grow the “mega pass” skier pie or simply divide up the existing one. I’d bet that the two fight each other to a standstill and end up pretty much at parity anyway.
 

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