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2019 Sonoma Fires

Tricia

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The California Incident maps look crazy bad.
@skibob IIRC you were in the thick of this two years ago, and now .....sigh

https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2019/10/23/kincade-fire/
https://sonomacounty.maps.arcgis.co...ndex.html?id=2cb4401e1fc0494dbf9d9e22aa794617

Screen Shot 2019-10-27 at 8.06.30 AM.png
 

graham418

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Its amazing, and sad , that this is a new thread every year now. We hear it on the news every day in Toronto. "Tens of thousands evacuated, Fires burning out of control on multiple fronts. Power outages to control spread of fire". I feel for all the people there. It must be hard to bear year after year.
 
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Tricia

Tricia

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Its amazing, and sad , that this is a new thread every year now. We hear it on the news every day in Toronto. "Tens of thousands evacuated, Fires burning out of control on multiple fronts. Power outages to control spread of fire". I feel for all the people there. It must be hard to bear year after year.
What caught my attention most is the rapid rate that the mandatory evacuation area of the map is growing. :(
 

Eleeski

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Reporting and reaction to weather events has changed. More than the weather. I'm definitely not discounting the real effect fires and other weather issues can have on people but we hear about it more.

It's not always proper. I flew my Cessna for a short trip. News weather was hyping up a forecast Santa Ana wind event. We cut the trip short to avoid getting caught in a windstorm. The Santa Ana was real but at 10 knots of upper winds, it was only good for giving San Diego a nice afternoon. OK, we came back early to enjoy nice weather at home so no real harm to us. But crying wolf too often to get ratings makes the news less trustworthy.

Shutting off power based on improper interpretation of weather reports has more serious consequences.

Best wishes to anyone near the fires. @skibob Evacuate to Mt Rose!

Eric
 

Unpiste

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Shutting off power based on improper interpretation of weather reports has more serious consequences.
While the state of PG&E's infrastructure management is obviously a contributing factor, the two recent power shutoffs affecting the area were absolutely not done based on an improper interpretation of the weather. Both the shutoff two weeks ago and this one were done due to extremely dry, warm, and windy weather. We're talking 20% humidity, 80+ MPH winds, highs in the 90s, and of course a landscape full of dry grass where it hasn't rained in months.

I'd be curious to hear how SDGE's shutoffs have been taken, since they've been mentioned as a comparatively responsible utility in the news coverage of PG&E.
 

Eleeski

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We had a 90mph gust a couple days ago in a SDGE shutdown area. Shutdowns have been limited but have affected some communities. Irritating on the light wind days, supported in big blows. Tough balance. The power seems to come back quickly enough to keep SDGE out of the doghouse.

Of course, a SDGE line truck had a traffic accident that started a fire a while back. There's always risk.

My mom in the Bay Area has avoided the shutdowns but is living under constant threat of an imminent shutdown. Her fridge is devoid of perishables now in response. City of Palo Alto, not PG&E - but not particularly well handled. At least it's blowing 10mph with gusts to 15 now.

Eric
 

Unpiste

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My mom in the Bay Area has avoided the shutdowns but is living under constant threat of an imminent shutdown. Her fridge is devoid of perishables now in response. City of Palo Alto, not PG&E - but not particularly well handled. At least it's blowing 10mph with gusts to 15 now.

PG&E is probably being somewhat overcautious due to liability concerns (as far as I can tell, it's still a big open question whether the recent shutoffs actually did more good than harm), but part of the problem here is that they can't shut down power to all high risk areas without also affecting areas that are not going to see especially high winds. The infrastructure just isn't (currently) setup to allow that.
 
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skibob

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Thanks for the thoughts. Yes, 2 years ago we were 1/4 mile from the burn perimeter. Same house. We are farther away now, but in a precarious position nonetheless. I think the big difference is that firefighters had at least some ability to respond in mass and prepare themselves for the real fight (which started 4 days into the fire).

Right now, to the best o my ability to tell, they have kinda managed to seal off Geyserville and the main part of Healdsburg. They haven't yet established a perimeter around WIndsor but are massed there to try to make a stand. Meanwhile, the fire threatens to jump 101 in between Healdsburg and Windsor. They REALLy want to prevent that, because most of that area has not burned in a really long time.

Our business on the west side of SR is still under threat if that happens. Our home, on the east side, has a slight advantage (in my unprofessional opinion) in that several miles of 2017 burn zone lies between the current fire and our home. Unless of course it burns down the east face of the Mayacamas and then blows back over (always looking at the bright side?).

Anyway, we are in a mandatory evac zone. When they announced the evac of Windsor and Healdsburg yesterday we packed up and were out of our home in an hour in order to get ahead of the traffic (which we did). We arrived in Tahoe with the cold front. 20 degrees when I walked the dog this morning! Sadly, I didn't realize Rose opened WROD last week! Left pretty much everything I would need in SR :-(.
 

skibob

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@skibob Can't give a like to evacuation (without skis) but will wish you good luck. Hopefully things will calm down for you and the surrounding areas to deal with the fires and get you home soon!

Eric
Since my last post, I've been able to beg, borrow, or steal everything except pants. Thinking about skiing in khakis . . .
 

Pequenita

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It is insanely windy in the Sacramento Valley, there are grass fires popping up everywhere, and loads of people on SMUD unexpectedly out of power due to downed trees, etc. I’ve collected enough branches — some the size of my arm — in my yard to make a really good beaver dam and am basically waiting for a huge branch or two to come down on my car or something...

I’m off to freeze some water bottles just in case my power really does go out and I need to keep stuff refrigerated.
 

skibob

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is it currently Fri/Sat/Sun only for next weekend? Not going to make it today, but I think its likely we will still be around on Friday.
 
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Tricia

Tricia

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Sadly, I didn't realize Rose opened WROD last week! Left pretty much everything I would need in SR :-(.
How did you not know this? I mean, you read Pugski.com, right???

is it currently Fri/Sat/Sun only for next weekend? Not going to make it today, but I think its likely we will still be around on Friday.
If you're still around, come see us at the Silver Legacy for the Warren Miller Movie Timeless.
 

Eric267

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Have a bunch of friends up in Healdsburg that I've been texting with. The fire jumped 128 sometime this morning and spread down between Hbg and Windsor. Hopefully they can get it under control soon.

This is from my buddy's street just north of downtown Hbg. His nieghbor is cal fire so is still up there. This pick is from about an hour ago
image.jpeg
image.jpeg
 
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Tricia

Tricia

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Since my last post, I've been able to beg, borrow, or steal everything except pants. Thinking about skiing in khakis . . .
Hit us up!
 

skibob

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Hit us up!
I just might. But my wife told me last night that we have to head home fri for an important event on saturday. Now, if things don't go well in the next few days, that could obviously change.

But right now I am cautiously optimistic that firefighters have succeeded in making a stand along 101. My next worry is that the entire Eastern/Southeastern flank has been left to run completely out of control. To the East it still has many miles of nothing to burn through (and winds Tues/Wed ought to blow it back into its own burn path). But to the SE, its jumped up into the Mayacamas again. THe Tubbs fire burn path is (fortunately?) forcing it to make a wide, wide run. Otherwise, I am afraid it would be at my front door right about now. But there IS a long path around that. ANd if they don't jump on it now, the T/W winds will be blowing it right into Santa Rosa. So far, whoever is commanding this effort seems to have intuitively predicted the fire's behavior and executed an effective plan to cut it off. So, hopefully, if I can piece this together from satellite images and publicly available wildfire cameras, they can too. I am guessing that they predicted this 3 days ago and cleverly used the Tubbs fire path to help contain the fire and protect Santa Rosa, buying them some time to save Healdsburg and Windsor. Whew. I hope I'm right. If so, I want to buy a beer for whomever came up with that plan. So long as they now jump on that SE flank. :)
 

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